Archive for January, 2005

Buying a TV? Think: smart investment

Saturday, January 22nd, 2005

TECHNOLOGY I Here are the ABCs of LCD, CRT and HDTV to help put all of you television consumers in the picture

Peter Wilson
Sun

 

CREDIT: Glenn Baglo, Vancouver Sun

The range of choices for buyers of new television sets is enormous, but plan to look for high-definition TV, which is the wave of the future.

When it comes to television sets, there’s an entire universe of choices.

Should you go for plasma? What about liquid crystal display? Should you be considering that rear projection model? And what about high-definition TV? Would it just be better to wait another year?

North Americans are snapping up new sets in record numbers. In 2004, total sales of digital TV products reached $10.2 billion US, a jump of 78 per cent over 2003.

There are lots of options sitting on the sales shelves. Here’s a guide to help you navigate through that galaxy of choices:

1. Don’t put it off getting that set, and, when you buy, opt for high definition:

David Heim, deputy editor of Consumer Reports magazine, doesn’t believe you should wait around for the next big thing before you buy a set, as long as you make sure it’s capable of giving you a good high-definition picture.

“I’ve been telling people for some time that if you want a set for the long haul, for five or seven years and if you’re going to spend $5,000 or $6,000 or more, you’re making an investment and you want to make sure you’re getting all the resolution you’re paying for.”

In other words, buy a set, no matter what type you choose, that is at least HD-ready. And what does this mean?

Your current analogue television set shows a picture made up of 480 horizontal lines. To be considered HDTV a television set has to have a minimum of 720 horizontal lines and a wide screen.

When it comes to that decision about HD sets, most Canadians don’t need a built-in tuner but can go with HD-ready (no tuner, but capable of handling HDTV pictures) sets because you get a tuner with the new digital boxes offered by the cable and satellite services — each of which have at least a few HDTV channels.

Shaw, for example, offers one movie channel, four Washington state stations (KOMO, KIRO, KING, KSPS) and a special events channel called HDTV1.

Basically, if you don’t have cable or satellite, you’re out of luck when it comes to HDTV.

2. Gear the size of the set to the room you’ll be using.

Sony Canada‘s communication manager John Challinor said that after asking if the set is HD or HD-ready the next step is simple:

“Ask how big a TV do I need, where is it going and what technology that I can afford will fit in the space that I have.”

Enough said.

3. Narrow down your choices, which are wide and plentiful.

“It’s not as if anyone is being deprived of a selection here,” said Heim. “Far from it. In fact, there’s probably too much for people to choose from.”

Among the most popular choices are:

* Rear projection sets: These come in two different types:

— The large, space-hogging, but relatively inexpensive models based on the cathode ray tube (CRT) technology that provides the picture in traditional TV sets.

— The more expensive, but much slimmer and lighter microdisplay models that offer a better picture through more modern liquid crystal display (LCD), data light processing (DLP) or liquid crystal on silicon (LCoD) technology.

The most common technology used in microdisplay models is LCD, which is what is used in current computer monitors.

* Plasma: What most people still think about when they think big screen, these sets, thin enough to be wall mounted, have thousands of red, green and blue pixels activated by plasma and work something akin to fluorescent lights. They have bright, eye-catching images.

* LCD: These thin and light, but expensive and relatively small sets — similar to modern computer monitors — have a backlight that shines through thousands of red, green and blue pixels to create colourful images.

4. Do I want a rear-projection set and, if so, what type?

The set of choice for Christmas at Canada‘s giant Future Shop chain was the rear-projection set, divisional merchandise manager Tony Sandhu said.

“Traditionally, the projection sets have been the most affordable for the size,” said Sandhu, who says that both the CRT and microdisplay models sold well, but the trend is towards the microdisplay.

A 50-inch microdisplay set generally runs around $3,500, while an equivalent 50-inch high definition plasma model would go in the $8,000 to $9,000 range.

Sony’s Challinor said that his company’s most popular set with consumers is its LCD-based rear projection model.

“It’s a combination of a bunch of things,” Challinor said. “The screen size gives them the home theatre experience and the quality of picture relative to other technologies. And the weight of the product and its design allows them to put it in their living room or den and other areas where they want to watch TV.”

Heim says CRT-based projection TVs often do well in Consumer Reports tests, the most recent of which will be in the March issue.

“Some of them have a very slight edge in performance and they certainly have a big edge in price,” Heim said.

5. What about those big, colourful plasma pictures?

Plasma is certainly the most eye-catching of the technologies so far and many owners love them and swear by them.

However there are concerns.

“For all the pizazz, there are still issues with plasma sets, not the least of which is their price,” said Heim.

Other worries, he added, are colour accuracy and burn-in, where a ghost image can be left on the screen by such things as crawls across the bottom of the screen from news channels and images from games.

“If you’re paying $5,000 or $6,000 or $7,000 for a set that’s not something you really want to look forward to,” Heim said.

Challinor said that plasma is not as robust as other technologies.

“I categorize plasma as the Paris Hilton of television,” said Challinor. “It’s high maintenance, it’s technology you have to take care of.”

Challinor also mentioned burn-in and said that plasma was subject to changing conditions in a room. “The technology is sensitive, so it really does require someone who is very keen about what they want and where they watch it and the environment around the television.”

6. LCD works fine for my computer monitor, what about it as a choice for television?

The picture on the thin, light LCD screens looks good and is steadily improving in quality. The big knock against LCD at the moment is that the sets are very expensive.

“Traditionally, with LCD for a 40-inch screen you’re looking at about $10,000,” said Sandhu.

However, he added, that could change when sets with screens from a new Sony/Samsung LCD plant in South Korea begin hitting the market.

“I believe that by about May you’ll be able to pick up that 40-inch screen for about $5,000.”

Heim said that those looking for a flat panel, five-inch thick display, would probably be best to go with an LCD set, assuming they buy as big a screen as they want.

“That’s because there are probably fewer issues with LCD than there are with plasma,” said Heim.

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NEW SWING AT FED TELEVISION

Diamond dust — or perhaps just plain old carbon — could soon be coming to a television screen near you.

And, if it does, then it could launch the category killer that wipes Plasma and LCD TV sets off the digital map — eventually.

The dust will be used in what are called field effect displays (FED) which, if you believe the hype, could offer a better picture and be cheaper than LCD or plasma and, as an environmental bonus, eat less energy.

FED TVs (and, be warned, this technology fizzled the first time it was tried by Motorola in the 1990s) might make it into stores by late 2006. Samsung already has a prototype of a carbon-based TV.

Others working on it include Sony, Fujitsu, Hitachi, LG Philips, Mitsubishi, Motorola and Pioneer.

As if that weren’t enough another, similar technology, called surface conduction electronic emission (SED) is also being tried by the likes of Canon and Toshiba.

The FED concept works — stretching things just a bit — somewhat like a combination of the plain old cathode ray tube (CRT), with its electron gun, and the LCD, with its sandwich technology.

It’s said that, if the technological problems can be overcome, a FED TV set could cost half of what a similar LCD model would run.

And this could mean that FED would also work well in large computer monitors.

However, those hungering for a flat-panel or wide-screen or HDTV experience might not want to wait for something that, at best, is likely to be two years away.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Real estate prices may be about to dip

Friday, January 21st, 2005

Any fall is likely to be brief and the long-term trend will be up, industry leaders say

Michael McCullough
Sun

After four years of ever-stronger growth, real estate and property development in Greater Vancouver may be in for a bumpy ride in 2005. But industry leaders remain bullish on the longer-term outlook.

The current real estate cycle is probably coming to a close, but the downturn will be brief before a new growth phase starts, panellists at the Urban Development Institute’s annual industry forecast luncheon seemed to agree.

“We’ve been in the throes of a strong housing cycle for at least four years,” said Polygon Homes Ltd. president Neil Chrystal.

The development boom was fuelled by declining interest rates, stable construction costs, and steadily building economic growth. Investors could speculate successfully by buying into unbuilt developments and flipping them once they were finished.

“That all ended last June,” he said. “Most of us expected September would be the bounce-back month, but it wasn’t.” Interest rates remain low and job creation and in-migration remain strong, but the rise in land values and building costs has begun to push prospective buyers out of the market.

“Some areas of the market will be oversupplied,” Chrystal said, singling out downtown south and parts of Surrey and Langley. In the former, he expects many of the 6,000 condominiums approaching completion will come back on the market as investors who bought them in pre-sales seek to flip them. In the latter, there is simply too much of the same product (townhouses mostly) coming on the market at the same time.

Should interest rates rise sharply, the picture could worsen. But Chrystal anticipates a softer landing as rates stay low or rise gradually, and growth resumes in subsequent years.

Macdonald Development Corp. president Rob Macdonald related his experience working in Atlanta around the time of the 1996 Olympics to illustrate what he believes will happen to Vancouver over the next 10 years. There, not just the economic activity but also the international exposure of the event created a growth period that lasted until at least 2000, when Macdonald sold an office building for three times what he paid. At its peak, more than 100,000 people a year were moving to the city, and Macdonald predicts Vancouver could see in excess of 80,000 net new arrivals in coming years.

“We are just in the early stages of a momentum buildup in this region,” he said. “When the world wants a piece of you, it has a powerful influence on property prices.”

Although there will be bumps along the road, Macdonald predicted a 10-year “golden era” for Vancouver through at least 2014.

The increase in land values means developers have to be creative to make money, he added, urging his colleagues to look for ways to provide public amenities in return for rezoning and higher density. Deals such as his own company’s redevelopment of a lot at Granville and Dunsmuir downtown — which will provide the first condo tower in the middle of the financial district and save TransLink $15 million on new handicapped access to the Granville SkyTrain station — represent “triple-win transactions” where the developer, governments and community interests all benefit, he said.

Instead of just reacting to government demands, “Seek out or dream up ideas that can benefit your community,” he told the packed ballroom. “We should create winning situations for government.”

Avtar Bains, senior vice-president of investment for leasing and sales brokerage Colliers International, advised the assembly to pay attention to what’s happening in the outside world because it is affecting local markets faster and more profoundly than ever before. The industry is cyclical and will remain so, Bains said, but instead of the old seven- or eight-year cycles we will experience shorter cycles with less dizzying highs and less paralysing lows.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Local housing starts hottest in the Fraser Valley, according to CMHC

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

Sun

CHILLIWACK – The Chilliwack market was the hottest of the hot last year, when it came to housing starts in the Fraser Valley.

While the number jumped for the region as a whole by 31 per cent, the rate for Chilliwack was the highest of all the communities at 83.3 per cent, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. figures.

By comparison, Langley showed the next greatest rate of growth at 66.7 per cent.

Mission‘s starts increased by 46.7 per cent.

Surrey and White Rock growth rates were 28.3 and 22 per cent respectively.

Abbotsford’s growth rate was only 2.6 per cent.

“Strong consumer confidence, improving migration and full-time job gains continue to drive growth in the housing market,” Robyn Adamache, a CMHC market analyst, said.

“Affordability also makes this market attractive to many home buyers.”

Single detached home starts shot up to 461 in 2004 in Chilliwack from 263 starts in 2003, a 75.3-per-cent increase, while the number of multiple-residence unit starts almost doubled in 2004 to 527 from 276 starts, an increase of 90.9 per cent.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Condo King sells $405 Million in real estate

Tuesday, January 18th, 2005

Bob Rennie moved a total of 703 units last year, MLS figures show

Michael McCullough
Sun

Vancouver‘s condo king sold an astonishing $405 million worth of real estate last year, and Bob Rennie figures he could top that amount this year.

An unaudited list of “Medallion Club” winners — representing the top sellers of homes on the Multiple Listing Service in Greater Vancouver — showed Rennie, of Rennie Marketing Systems, moved 703 units worth $405,809,512 in 2004.

The figure easily topped Rennie’s previous personal best of $274 million in 2003, as well as Medallion Club runner-up Jason Craik’s total of $172.5 million in 2004.

“I have an infrastructure. I have 14 people who run me,” Rennie said, conceding that he did not personally deal with every buyer.

Rennie is the first to admit you can’t compare what he does to a realtor selling existing homes. His sales total represents all new multi-family developments. Working with the developers, Rennie Marketing will design the layout of the suites, often hiring the architect.

As a result of these value-added services, the company receives a significantly larger commission than a resale agent.

“The world’s pretty good to me,” said Rennie, 48. “When you do this for 30 years, everybody expects you to burn out or cash out. I get up at 5 a.m. every morning. I still really, really enjoy it.”

Moreover he believes he can surpass his new sales benchmark this year.

“I think I will equal it or beat it,” he said, naming a number of new developments coming on stream including the Park Royal Hotel in West Vancouver, L’Hermitage downtown, the Norman Foster Tower and the Woodward’s redevelopment on the downtown eastside, plus condominium towers in Richmond, New Westminster and Burnaby.

Rennie said about 30 per cent of what he sells represents high-end condos, up from 10 per cent typically in the 1990s.

“If you look at all the cranes downtown, they’re all 95 per cent sold, so I’m not worried about oversupply,” he said.

However, he added, “we can’t have rapid absorption and rapid price increases at the same time. I’m thinking they’ll both level out.”

Other leading realtors on the Medallion Club list included Craik, of Mac Real Estate Corp., who sold 340.5 units; high-end home seller Malcolm Hasman of Angell Hasman & Associates Realty Ltd., who sold 39 homes worth $97.9 million; Grace Kwok of Anson Realty Ltd., who sold seven homes worth $62.1 million; Jason Soprovich of Prudential Sussex Realty, 31 units, $52 million; and Winnie Chung of President Canada Real Estate Services Inc., 50.5 units, $51.5 million.

Created by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, the Medallion Club honours the top 500 realtors in Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Following a random audit, 2004 inductees will be feted at an awards banquet to be held on Feb. 23.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Realtor sells $405,809,512 in homes

Sunday, January 16th, 2005

HOT MARKET: Six local realtors sold more than $50m in houses

Ashley Ford
Province

There is simply no question about who is the barometer of residential real estate in Greater Vancouver.

Bob Rennie of Rennie Marketing Systems sold a staggering $405,809,512 worth of homes on the Multi Listing Service last year, putting him far ahead of his nearest competition Jason Craik of MAC Real Estate Corp who rang up an impressive $170,898,845 in sales.

Following them was perennial strong performer Malcolm Hasman of Angell Hasman with $97,890,599 in sales.

Others topping the $50 million mark were Grace Kwok of Anson Realty at $59,892,462, Jason Soprovich of Prudential Sussex Rlty. $50,515,520 and Winnie Chung of President Canada Real Estate Serv. Inc. $50,064,400.

Rennie listed 1,482 units during the year and sold 703 of them while Craik listed 880 selling 339. Hasman listed 58 properties and sold 39.

Rennie’s performance reflects the continuing consumer fascination with downtown apartment and condominium living.

“My performance is directly related to the economic confidence in Great Vancouver and B.C. and 30 years of hard work does pay off,” Rennie said.

It is well known within industry circles that Rennie is on the job at 5.30 a.m. every morning and sometimes puts in 16-hour days.

© The Vancouver Province 2005

Coopers Lookout – a Waterfront ‘Winner’

Saturday, January 15th, 2005

FALSE CREEK: Lesson in relative rates of appreciation in residential values led couple to Coopers Lookout

Sun

CREDIT: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun Coopers Lookout’s Tracie McTavish stands with the model of the penultimate project on the old Expo 86 site.

CREDIT: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun INTERIOR AMBIENCE SUITS MILLION-DOLLAR VIEWS, ALL FOR LESS THAN A MILLION: Concord Pacific is marketing Coopers Lookout as one of the last opportunities to own Vancouver waterfront for less than $1 million, a possibility the display centre mirrors with its million-dollar ambience.

CREDIT: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun INTERIOR AMBIENCE SUITS MILLION-DOLLAR VIEWS, ALL FOR LESS THAN A MILLION: The hardwood is an upgrade, but stainless steel appliances, glass doors on the upper cabinets and the stone counter in the kitchen (right) are not.

CREDIT: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun INTERIOR AMBIENCE SUITS MILLION-DOLLAR VIEWS, ALL FOR LESS THAN A MILLION: Vessels sinks are standard in the bathrooms (right below); the vanities are either stone or marble.

When Alexander and Frances Stewart bought their current Vancouver residence 16 years ago, nearby Southwest Marine Drive wasn’t the busy truck route it is today.

In between then and now, consequently, the Stewarts have come to the conclusion that because of that increase in passing trucks they will not generate the same return on their home that other westside homeowners might generate on their homes.

Accordingly, when it came time to investigate investment property to which they might someday retire, finding property whose appreciation will more likely than not meet or beat the norm was a priority.

And that’s how the Stewarts ended up buying a Coopers Lookout apartment on the north shore of False Creek.

Championed by Concord Pacific as one of the last opportunities to own Vancouver waterfront for under $1 million, the 221 Coopers Lookout residences range in price from $240,000 to $2.3 million.

The buildings in which they will be located will be among the last Concord Pacific will build on the old Expo lands.

“I’m sure the apartment will be worth more than this house and land,” says Alexander Stewart, 67. “Real estate is a funny thing. It’s like buying stock. You try and hedge your bets.”

The Stewarts bought a 1,200-square-foot, two-bedroom-plus-den apartment on the 29th floor of the 30-floor concrete tower at Coopers Lookout. They paid more than $700,000 for it.

“I don’t want to be paying tomorrow’s prices for it,” he said, adding Frances, 53, told him she believes it will increase in value.

“She thinks it’s a winner and I always listen to my wife.”

Stewart said his only concern is the views won’t be unimpeded water views, noting Concord Pacific will be building another residential tower nearby.

The tower in which the Stewarts bought is at the rear of the site, which is adjacent to the Plaza of Nations just east of Cambie Bridge. “A third of the way up the tower there will be expansive views from English Bay to Mount Baker,” Concord Pacific’s Tracie McTavishbites,

He added the project will look out over the Olympic Village on the south shore of False Cree,. “This is the first time we’ve sold a building where the views aren’t there yet. We’ve gone to the city to see the drawings of Olympic Village and it’s going to be a tiered back from the water.”

The best False Creek water views at Coopers Lookout will be from the 10 villas to be built in the front of the property, residences that will overlook the seawall, said McTavish.

Six two-storey townhouses and 12 two-storey lofts will be located between the apartment tower and the villa building.

The three-bedroom-plus-den villas range in price from $1.5 million to $2.3 million; the townhouses, from $770,000 to $880,000; the lofts, from $500,000 to $640,000.

McTavish said it’s Concord Pacific’s policy not to say how many of the units it has already sold, but he added there’s still plenty of choices for buyers because it’s only been on the market since December. He added there was an earlier pre-sale to buyers who registered nearly one year ago but all of the residential options, from villas to lofts to apartments, are available.

“This is a chance for people to buy affordable waterfront that won’t soon exist,” said McTavish. “Its all run out. Its all been developed. The harsh reality is we’ve very close to completing all of the foreshore.”

Concord Pacific has spent the past 13 years developing the former Expo 86 site, working in close conjunction with the city of Vancouver.

It is currently the largest residential community being developed in Canada.

Coopers Lookout is part of Coopers Quay, a five-building mix of low and high rise buildings that stretch along the north shore of False Creek. In total Coopers Quay will have 600 units.

Concord marketing director Ivan Tsao earlier told the media the residential site is the second to last of the lands bordering False Creek being developed by Concord.

“We have one more site to the east, but this is the last small-scale waterfront development,” he said

McTavish said Coopers Lookout is linked to the water and the activities it offers and residents of the development will even have the opportunity to sign out a kayak they can then walk down to False Creek.

Coopers Lookout residents will also have membership to the Coopers Quay Esprit City Club, a 14,000-square-foot recreation centre, where the fleet of kayaks are stored. The centre also boasts a private, two-lane, 10- pin bowling alley, a 60-foot lap pool, big screen video theatre, fitness centre and a yoga-Pilates studio.

Coopers Lookout is the first phase of the Coopers Quay neighbourhood, which is expected to create 1,700 person years of employment.

Stewart said initially he was against the former Expo land being sold to one developer but now he is supportive of what the developer has done to create a community on the site.

“They have a pretty good reputation and have turned out good buildings. It’s turned into a magnificent setting for the city. You get a mixture of families and there’s parks, shops and restaurants there now. It’s become quite the centre,” he said.

Indeed, Frances added the couple are so encouraged by the work by Concord they have also bought a second investment property from the company- this one in the 32-storey Park West Towner that overlooks Granville Island.

“Because Concord is developing the entire site you know you’ll have view corridors,” she said. “It really is a good investment.”

Presentation centre: 1550 Homer

Centre hours: Daily from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Telephone: (604) 899-8800

Website: www.cooperslookout.com

Developer: Concord

Architect: Jim Hancock

Interior design: David Hepworth of Situ Design

Project size: 30 storey tower, 6 townhomes, 12 lofts, 10 villas

Residence size: 550 sq. ft. for a one bedroom to 2,866 sq. ft. for a villa Residence price: $240,000 to $2.3 million

Construction: Concrete

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Tribeca Lofts – availability of 12 downtown apartments

Saturday, January 15th, 2005

Sun

Tribeca Lofts’ ceremony turns up availability of 12 downtown apartments

Address: Richards and Nelson, Vancouver

Project Size: 53 lofts and apartments, of which 12 are unsold

Residence size: Originally, from one bedroom with home office, about 600 sq. ft., to two bedroom with home office, about 1,100 sq. ft.

Price: From $279,900

Developer: Chandler Development Group

Architect: Hancock Bruckner

Groundbreakings are rarely news, although it’s possible to dig up news at them.

For example, a groundbreaking on Friday that Rennie Marketing Systems organized generated this news: 12 lofts and flats are still available at the Tribeca Lofts project.

The Tribeca development generated its share of notice earlier this year, not least because of the marketing pitch — that living in a Tribeca residence would be akin to living in a “New York Style Loft.”

(Whatever is on offer figuratively, 41 sold before Friday’s ceremonial observation of the start of construction.)

For the Tribeca Tribune, the project was one more example of the “Manhattanization” of the world.

“From Dallas to Dublin, the neighbourhood name is being adopted by restaurants, bars, a social club, financial and marketing firms, a cigar store and a yacht,” the 10-year-old community monthly reported.

“Even a recycling company … calls itself Tribeca.”

The report quoted Regis Chung, owner of the Tribeca restaurant of Vancouver, as saying: “At first, only people who had travelled or been reading the papers and hearing about De Niro’s restaurant and ‘John-John’ knew what it was.”

Five years on, “the town also sports a condo development by the same name,” the Tribune commented.

It also reported “Tribeca lofts” have sprung up in Santa Barbara, Calif., Seattle and Dallas.

Two colour schemes are available, with the black and white, called (of course) Broadway and the brown SoHo.

In the kitchen, the floor is hardwood and the appliances stainless steel. Bosch will supply the gas range; Amana, the fridge.

The starting price on the 12 residences left is $279,900. Call Rennie Marketing Systems at 604-682-2088.

By the way, the Lower Manhattan neighbourhood is called Tribeca ias a short from of of Triangle Below Canal Street.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Housing starts soared in BC last year

Wednesday, January 12th, 2005

Some 30,884 homes were started in 2004 — that’s 25 per cent more than the previous year

Michael McCullough
Sun

CREDIT: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun Residential construction continues strongly across B.C., including this project that is being built in Surrey.

B.C.’s urban housing starts hit their highest level in 10 years last year and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is predicting further growth in 2005.

Builders broke ground on 30,884 dwelling units across the province in 2004, up 25 per cent from 2003 and the highest number since 1994, when 34,619 homes went up. CMHC, a federal Crown corporation, expects B.C. will be the only province to record another increase in 2005 — to 32,000 starts.

The same factors that boosted new home construction in 2004 — strong job creation, migration from other provinces, a historically low inventory of vacant properties and continued low interest rates — are still in place as we head into 2005, CMHC senior market analyst Cameron Muir said.

In the middle of last year there were fewer than 100 unoccupied new units available in all of Greater Vancouver, Muir noted. In 1999, by contrast, there were 2,600 such homes on the market.

There are 12,000 housing units under construction around the region, but most have been pre-sold, Muir said, meaning they will never sit vacant.

However, while the market in 2003 and 2004 was driven by first-time buyers and investors, those buyers will represent a largely spent force in 2005, he said.

Highly price-sensitive, many first-timers will be gradually priced out of the market by rising building costs and, in all likelihood, interest-rate hikes later this year. As real estate prices reach new highs, investors will opt for other venues such as the stock market.

“More buyers are going to be move-up, move-down, move-over,” Muir said.

For example, he foresees a strong market for high-end downtown condominiums and suburban townhouses near amenities such as golf courses and waterfront promenades from empty-nesters selling their suddenly very valuable single-family houses.

The demand for those houses, in turn, will come from new arrivals to the province and young families seeking a patch of land.

Factors that weigh against CMHC’s rosy forecast include possible interest-rate hikes and higher construction costs.

“Construction material costs have gone up dramatically in the last year to 18 months,” Muir acknowledged. And though labour cost increases have been modest to date, residential builders will soon have to compete with Olympic-related construction projects for skilled tradespeople.

As for interest rates, Muir believes it would take a substantial 200-basis-points (two per cent) increase in mortgage rates to derail the current market momentum.

Greater Vancouver boasted 19,435 home starts last year, a 24.4-per-cent increase from 2003, with some of the fastest growth in Langley, where the number of starts rose 67 per cent year-over-year, and Burnaby, up 61 per cent.

As one of the few places left around Vancouver to build a single-family house, Langley township saw brisk development in the Willoughby area just north of Langley city.

Closer to the city core, Burnaby witnessed the “upzoning” of several walk-up style apartment areas into higher-density condominium towers.

One of the constraints to new development that has been building over the long term is a lack of new building sites, Muir said.

Some developers are resorting to so-called “brownfield” sites — erstwhile industrial land such as the former Canadian White Pine sawmill site in southeast Vancouver and another abandoned millsite being developed by Parklane Homes near Fort Langley.

Greater Vancouver Home Builders Association CEO Peter Simpson was not surprised by the housing start numbers.

“We knew we were headed towards the best year in a decade,” he said Tuesday. In fact, based on the 11 months to Nov. 30 it was already the best year in 10 and the 2,372 starts provincewide in December were just “gravy,” he said.

Given that each housing unit creates 2.8 person-years of employment in construction and manufacturing, the increased activity in 2004 created an additional 10,665 jobs in Greater Vancouver alone, Simpson said.

CMHC’s forecast of a further 2.2-per-cent increase in starts this year is fine by him.

“It’ll basically be a flat line and that’s not altogether a bad thing because it’ll be manageable,” he said. Though the scarcity of skilled trades is stretching completion times longer for some projects, it is not affecting closing dates for buyers, he said.

Virtually all major centres in B.C. saw growth in housing starts in 2004. Victoria enjoyed the best year in the past 11 with 2,363 starts, representing an 18-per-cent increase over 2003. But the strongest markets on Vancouver Island last year were Nanaimo and Parksville/Qualicum, where starts rose 56 and 73 per cent, respectively.

Peggy Prill, CMHC’s market analyst for the Island, expects strong growth from these up-Island communities, with the addition of Courtenay-Comox and Duncan, in the coming year as demand for retirement homes and recreational property intensifies.

An aging population will prompt a gradual shift towards multi-family developments from houses and acreages, Prill said.

After a very strong 2003, housing starts increased just four per cent in Kelowna in 2004, but area analyst Paul Fabri expects a stronger 2005.

New home markets are strong throughout the Okanagan and are picking up in Kamloops and Salmon Arm, he said.

The other hot spots in the southern Interior for residential construction were ski and other resort communities such as Big White, Sun Peaks, Panorama, Fernie, Kimberly, Invermere and Radium Hot Springs.

Prince George saw the best new home market in a decade, with 195 new units in 2004, up from 103 in 2003.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Vancouver, Montreal lead $50b construction rally

Tuesday, January 11th, 2005

StatsCan: Non-residential up 150 per cent

Ashley Ford
Province

The B.C. construction industry laced its sprinting shoes back up in November after taking a rest, producing a strong and largely unexpected rally.

Statistics Canada reported yesterday that Vancouver and Montreal led the rally that took hold right across the country with permits worth $5 billion being issued. It was the second-best monthly performance of the year behind June’s $5.4 billion.

As a result of the rebound, StatsCan is predicting a record construction year.

“The cumulative value so far for 2004 is just $252 million short of the total value of $50.8 billion for all of 2003, which was a record,” it said.

“Consequently, the value of building permits will reach a new annual peak in 2004.”

While monthly construction numbers can be notoriously fickle, the latest numbers clearly indicate an underlying strength for the industry, said Dr. Sherry Cooper, chief economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns.

“The burst of activity in November clearly shows that the buoyant construction sector is not fading yet,” she said.

The best news for B.C. was not in the housing sector, which remains very strong, but in the non-residential sector where the largely languishing sector rebounded by an astonishing 150.2 per cent over October with $229 million in permits being issued compared with $91.5 million in October due to new projects for industrial, manufacturing and institutional buildings.

The performance ensured the mini-rally in the sector was continuing. The latest numbers show the sector running ahead by 7.3 per cent from a year ago with $1.8 billion of permits being issued compared with $1.7 billion a year ago.

The B.C. housing sector remains the most vibrant with permits running ahead of last year by 35.9 per cent or $5.49 billion compared to $4.04 billion.

Over the first 10 months ,$7.3 billion in B.C. construction permits were issued compared with $5.7 billion a year ago.

© The Vancouver Province 2005

Construction activity went through roof in 2004

Tuesday, January 11th, 2005

B.C. leads country during record-setting rush for permits

Michael McCullough
Sun

Construction activity around Greater Vancouver hit new highs in 2004, as evidenced by the value of building permits issued. As year-end numbers roll in, several municipalities have posted new high-water marks for permit value.

Most notably, the value of building permits issued in Surrey surpassed the $1-billion mark for the first time last year. To the end of December, the city had issued $1.026 billion in building permits, up from the previous record of $955 million set in 2003.

The total included $873 million worth of residential permits and $140 million in commercial and industrial construction, with the remainder in institutional projects.

“That translates into many thousands of jobs for our residents,” Surrey mayor Doug McCallum enthused, citing the impact on not only the construction sector but also retail and other service industries.

Among B.C. cities, only Vancouver has recorded more than $1 billion in permits before. Last year that city, too, set a new benchmark for permit value, at $1.73 billion.

“We are up markedly this year,” said the city’s director of development services, Rick Scobie. In June alone, Vancouver issued close to $500 million in permits as developers hustled to beat a development cost levy that came into effect July 1. By comparison, the city’s permit value barely topped the billion-dollar mark in 2003.

Burnaby also set a record, with builders committing to $514 million worth of construction in 2004, up from $331 million in 2003. The value of multi-family housing projects in Burnaby more than doubled year-over-year to $238 million.

But the action was not confined to the largest cities.

British Columbia, and metropolitan Vancouver in particular, led the country in construction activity for the 11 months leading up to Nov. 30, numbers released Monday by Statistics Canada show.

“Regionally, the metropolitan areas of Vancouver and Montreal recorded by far the largest dollar gains on a year-to-date basis. In both regions, the value of building permits was up by more than $1 billion compared with the first 11 months of 2003,” the federal agency said.

Statistics Canada identified “tight vacancy rates for apartments” in Vancouver and Montreal, along with low mortgage rates and healthy job creation, for the nationwide strength in home construction in November.

On a year-to-date basis, building activity in Greater Vancouver reached $4.474 billion, up 39 per cent from the same period in 2003.

Residential building in B.C. likewise was running 35.9 per cent ahead of 2003 as of Nov. 30, at $5.497 billion.

B.C. and Ontario led the country in other forms of construction in November, too. Non-residential construction exploded by 150.2 per cent in B.C. in November (from October), though the year-to-date rise in commercial projects was a more measured 7.3 per cent compared with 2003.

Permits for all types of construction in B.C. totalled $7.369 billion for the January-November period, up 27.2 per cent from a year earlier.

With December figures still incomplete in many places, Statistics Canada ventured to say that “the value of building permits will reach a new annual peak in 2004.”

With the exception of Vancouver‘s permit rush in June, construction activity was consistently strong throughout the year, said Peter Simpson, president of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders Association. Simpson attributes the current lull at many builders’ sales offices to a seasonal slowdown and expects things to pick up in the spring.

“We still feel there are a lot of first-time buyers out there,” he said, adding that migration to the province remains strong and a belief that interest rates will likely stay low.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is predicting B.C. will be the only province to record an increase in housing starts in 2005, Simpson noted.

Scobie is not convinced the actual number and size of new developments increased as much as the statistics suggest, however. At least part of the higher permit values represent increases in the cost of concrete, steel and other building materials, not to mention labour. So people may just be paying more for the same number of new homes, offices and retail spaces.

But McCallum believes the numbers reflect real growth, noting how the number of dwelling units in Surrey rose to 4,134 last year from 3,828 in 2003. He also believes the economic impact of those building intentions in 2004 will stretch well into 2005 and expects another busy year for new construction, especially in commercial developments and business parks.

McCallum dismisses the notion that the pace of building is unsustainable, noting how two-thirds of Surrey‘s land base is taken up by parks and the Agricultural Land Reserve.

“We’re only developing a third of our land base for all that growth,” he said.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005