Archive for August, 2005

Multiple-housing projects now powering construction boom

Wednesday, August 10th, 2005

‘We’re now in second wave of consumer demand’

Ashley Ford
Province

Urban housing starts in the province continued to power ahead last month. Driven largely by multiple-housing projects, July starts surged ahead by 17.1 per cent to 2,974 from June’s 2,481, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported yesterday.

In Vancouver starts climbed by 12 per cent to 1,645 units from June’s 1,187 units.

“We are now in the second wave of consumer demand,” said Cameron Muir, senior CMHC analyst in Vancouver. “The first wave was pent-up demand. The current market is supported by much stronger economic fundamentals.”

Across Canada starts only edged up by 0.4 per cent in July to a seasonally adjusted 242,300 units, a high for the year.

CMHC said it is the multiple-housing sector that is driving the surge at the expense of single-family homes.

The changing nature of housing in Canada‘s urban areas, especially cities like Vancouver, can be seen by the numbers.

Multiple starts last month surged an impressive 12.2 per cent nationally, to 122,100 units, while single starts dropped off by nine per cent.

The federal corporation said the jump in multiple starts was expected, as rising housing prices shift demand to less-expensive multi-family homes. But overall housing demand still remains high.

“Low mortgage rates and favourable labour market conditions have boosted new-home construction to its highest level of the year,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at the corporation’s market analysis centre.

Starts in Quebec surged 15.3 per cent to 45,300 units, four per cent to 7,800 units in the Atlantic region and 2.5 per cent to 36,600 units in the Prairies.

In Ontario, the rate of urban starts fell 7.9 per cent to 89,100 units, despite near-record activity in the Toronto market.

© The Vancouver Province 2005

Housing starts continue to boom

Wednesday, August 10th, 2005

Trades are working at full capacity

Bruce Constantineau
Sun

A strong increase in multiple-family housing starts throughout Greater Vancouver last month offset a decline in single-family home construction so the total number of starts increased by more than 12 per cent over July 2004, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Tuesday.

But total housing starts during the first seven months of 2005 remain nine per cent below last year’s total as builders work at full capacity to keep up with demand.

“Demand remains very robust,” CMHC senior market analyst Cameron Muir said in an interview. “The decline in starts is more a sign that the capacity of the industry has been reached. There are about 18,500 housing units under construction throughout Greater Vancouver now and builders are extremely busy completing those projects.”

CMHC said single-family starts in Greater Vancouver fell by 14.2 per cent in July to 458 but the number of multi-family starts rose by 27.2 per cent to 1,187.

So far this year, Greater Vancouver housing starts have fallen by nine per cent to 10,219 units but the total number of B.C. starts has dipped by just 1.6 per cent to 17,287 units as building activity in communities like Kelowna and Victoria runs ahead of last year’s pace.

Muir expects the number of Greater Vancouver starts this year will come close to the 19,400 units that were built in 2004 while B.C. starts are forecast to be slightly higher than the 33,000 units that were constructed last year.

He said the housing market is currently experiencing a “second wave” of consumer demand, supported by strong economic fundamentals like job growth, population growth and low mortgage rates. The first wave of consumer demand was a release of pent-up demand that accumulated during the late 1990s, Muir said.

He said builders are constrained by a decline in the supply of good development sites and in Vancouver, they’re now considering properties in Gastown, Chinatown and southeast False Creek.

“Those projects won’t be as large as other developments and many of them will be mixed use, with some form of social housing component, so they’ll take longer to finish than more conventional projects,” Muir said.

Greater Vancouver Home Builders chief executive officer Peter Simpson said the number of new single-family starts has fallen by about 20 per cent this year because single-family homes are so expensive, starting at around $350,000 and up.

He said home builders face stiff competition for skilled trades people now from commercial and industrial projects and from a very active home renovation market, where spending is expected to top the $6-billion mark next year. Simpson noted total housing starts this year should still come close to last year’s total, which was the best year in a decade.

“I have not heard one complaint from anybody [about a slowdown in home construction],” he said. “Complete projects in Arizona and California have been delayed indefinitely until they sort out the trades shortage but we’re not at that point.”

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Homeowners capitalize on their wealth as house prices soar

Tuesday, August 9th, 2005

Refinancing can free up cash for buying recreational or investment property

Fiona Anderson
Sun

As prices for Vancouver real estate continue to rise at dizzying rates, people are capitalizing on their new-found wealth by taking out new mortgages that give them cash to buy investment property or do home renovations.

In June, Vancity’s residential mortgage portfolio grew $98 million, the highest month in recent memory, said Neil Brown, Vancity’s vice-president of products and services.

“We are seeing more and more people take advantage of the equity that they have in their properties . . . tapping into their mortgage to make it work for them,” Brown said.

Most of the mortgages Vancity’s Chris Pughe arranged in July were equity takeouts to buy recreational property, or refinancings to do renovations, to rejuggle debt or to buy investment property, Pughe said.

Many people are also deciding to sell their homes because of the increased value, said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Credit Union Central of B.C.

“I would suspect most of the sales we are seeing are by existing owners,” Pastrick said. “They benefit when prices go up as [the] asset value has increased.”

Some sellers may choose to downsize, keeping the gain realized from the sale of their home for other purposes, Pastrick said. Others may upgrade, borrowing more to do so.

As prices go up, fewer first-time buyers can afford to enter the market, Pastrick said.

But Invis mortgage broker John Santos-Ocampo, who specializes in first-time buyers, hasn’t seen a slowdown in his business.

People continue to buy because the economy is good and employment is good, Santos-Ocampo said. But they are borrowing more money to do it.

“It’s rare to have someone in the Vancouver area with 25 per cent down because prices are so high,” Santos-Ocampo said. He’s not worried that this means borrowers are spreading themselves too thin as banks won’t lend money in those circumstances, Santos-Ocampo said. He’s also not worried about a bubble.

“If people are investing and expecting [the price] to rise and reselling it, that’s when you see a bubble. But I don’t see a lot of that,” Santos-Ocampo said.

Pastrick agrees that there is no bubble. For prices to drop dramatically would require an unexpected recession that causes consumer and business confidence to plummet, Pastrick said.

But it needs to be unexpected, like a terrorist attack on the scale off 9/11, Pastrick said, or an economic crisis in a foreign country, such as when Russia defaulted on its bonds in 1998. Barring that, Pastrick expects housing prices to continue to rise.

“Unless one sees [confidence plummet] in the next while then housing should hold up and in my view will post some further gains” Pastrick said.

Pastrick expects double-digit increases in prices to continue next year.

“It’s a reflection of the strong housing market in the Lower Mainland,” Pastrick said.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Non-residential permits lead the rush

Tuesday, August 9th, 2005

The value of permits hit $222 million in June, the highest in more than five years

Bruce Constantineau
Sun

B.C. building plans surged ahead during the first half of 2005 as the value of building permits issued throughout the province increased by 22 per cent to more than $4.9 billion, Statistics Canada reported Monday.

Plans for new, non-residential projects led the way, with the value of those permits going up by 78.8 per cent to $1.7 billion. The value of residential permits increased by 4.3 per cent to $3.2 billion.

The value of institutional building permits issued in B.C. hit a record of $146 million in June, Statistics Canada said.

“We’re seeing a tremendous amount of commercial building activity now as investors come back to the market,” Vancouver Regional Construction Association president Keith Sashaw said in an interview. “It’s happening across all sectors on the non-residential side of construction.”

The VRCA said the value of non-residential permits issued by Greater Vancouver municipalities rose to more than $222 million in June — the highest monthly total in more than five years.

Analysts say high house prices and gradually increasing interest rates will cause B.C. housing starts to level off or decline slightly next year but commercial, industrial and government/institutional construction projects are expected to accelerate in 2006.

Credit Union Central of B.C. chief economist Helmut Pastrick said a strong domestic economy has encouraged more construction in the commercial and industrial sectors while growing government revenues boost government spending on health and education infrastructure — like schools, universities and medical buildings.

He said improved retail sales in B.C. have increased the demand for more retail and warehouse space while declining office vacancy rates encourage developers to build more office towers.

“I expect we’ll see further gains (in non-residential construction) next year,” Pastrick said. “Business investment, like you see here on the non-residential side, will be one of the strongest contributors to economic growth.”

He predicts the B.C. economy will grow by 3.6 per cent this year and by 3.9 per cent in 2006.

A recent CB Richard Ellis report said Vancouver is seeing a sharp demand for office space to accommodate an influx of organizations and firms associated with the 2010 Olympics, as well as firms such as software development companies. The report said the Vancouver Organizing Committee alone is seeking 220,000 square feet of new space by 2009, enough to fill an entire office tower.

Bentall Capital senior vice-president Tony Astles said his company forged ahead with a 13-storey expansion of its Bentall Five tower on Burrard Street this year because the demand for new space clearly warranted it. The addition — which will add 234,000 square feet of space to the building — is already 90-per-cent pre-leased, even though it won’t be finished until April 2007.

Astles said Teck Cominco will occupy the top four and a half floors of the expanded building while the law firm of Fasken Martineau DuMoulin will take four floors and Bell Canada will occupy three.

“The strength of the office leasing market has turned around quickly and we were fortunate enough to anticipate that a little bit,” he said. “We got our plans in place so that when the interest hit, we were ready to go.”

Sashaw said the booming construction market in B.C. continues to place a strain on labour resources.

“We’re seeing more workers moving into B.C., not only from across Canada but from all over the world,” he said. “Our office gets enquiries every week from people in Europe, the U.S. and other places who want to know about the construction opportunities here.”

Construction industry continues to boom

Tuesday, August 9th, 2005

Ashley Ford
Province

The B.C. construction industry is getting no summer vacation this year, with the non-residential sector riding its best year since 2000.

The sector continues to bounce back with a vengeance. So far this year, permits worth $1.71 billion have been issued, an impressive 78.8-per-cent increase from 2004’s $957.6 million.

Building-permit numbers released yesterday by Statistics Canada show the value of Vancouver permits taking a jump in June to $563 million from May’s $424.4 million, a 32.7-per-cent increase. So far this year, permits valued at $2.6 billion have been issued, compared with $2.5 billion a year ago, a more modest 4.9-per-cent jump.

The rest of the province is also benefitting from a robust economy with permits worth $898.5 million being issued in June compared with $804.5 million in May — an 11.7-per-cent increase.

So far this year, permit values are running 22 per cent ahead of where they were a year ago at $4.9 billion.

The rest of the country is also performing well. Municipalities issued more than $5 billion in building permits in June, signalling higher construction intentions in both the residential and non-residential sectors. The total value of permits rose 1.5 per cent from May.

Builders took out $3.2 billion in residential permits, up a half percentage point from May. The value of non-residential permits rose 3.1 per cent to $1.9 billion, which was 19.5 per cent higher than the average monthly level last year.

In the residential sector, a decline in single-family homes was more than offset by an increase in multi-family residences.

In the non-residential sector, gains in the industrial and commercial components more than offset a drop in institutional permits.

Permits are well ahead of the record-setting pace set in 2004. The cumulative value totalled $29.7 billion for the first half of 2005, 10.5 per cent above the same six months last year. Residential permits were up 4.4 per cent and non-residential permits 22.7 per cent.

© The Vancouver Province 2005

All travellers should get trip cancellation insurance

Monday, August 8th, 2005

Province

CREDIT: The Canadian Press

Chaos at Toronto’s Pearson airport last Tuesday.

TORONTO — Summertime is travel time for many Canadians, but sometimes even the best-laid plans can fly out the window, causing you to cancel or cut short a trip.

Last week’s crash of an Air France plane at Pearson International Airport is evidence that when things go wrong, they go wrong in a hurry.

Thankfully all survived this episode, but the resulting turmoil left thousands of passengers scrambling, right across the country.

Cancellation insurance may reduce the financial hit of an unforeseen crisis, such as a terrorist attack, hurricane or major illness, but experts advise travellers to know their options.

Stan Seggie, president of RBC Travel Insurance Co., says that his company sells trip cancellation and trip interruption insurance covering 42 types of risk that include medical emergencies, pregnancy, death, unemployment, some airline foulups and government travel advisories.

“It covers the vast majority of things that can happen,” Seggie says.

However, it’s important to know the terms and conditions of cancellation and interruption policies, he adds.

For example, RBC requires that a traveller claiming cancellation coverage must have cancelled the trip within one business day of the cause of the cancellation, and must at the same time have notified RBC.

Usually travellers should go over the insurance coverage at the time the trip is booked.

There are limits to what you can expect.

If your destination is hit by a disaster like a hurricane or an act of terrorism, you will likely be covered — but not if the event is regarded as too minor or too distant from where you’re going.

One factor to consider is whether the Canadian government has issued a travel warning for the area.

Check out the federal website www.voyage.gc.ca, which includes travel warnings about various parts of the world.

Seggie says cancellation insurance is designed to compensate travellers for things that are beyond their control, rather than simply a change of mind, in order to keep the premiums affordable.

RBC Travel Insurance, part of the group that owns the Royal Bank of Canada, writes about three million policies annually — half for trip cancellation or interruption and half for out-of-country medical coverage.

The average premium is about $75 to $80, Seggie says, but an individual’s premium will depend on age and the value of the trip being insured.

Laura Cooke, a spokeswoman for Air Canada, agrees that cancellation insurance often makes a lot of sense.

However, she notes that in times of crisis the airline may relax restrictions on its tickets — allowing travellers to rebook flights for a later time, after the danger has passed.

“It’s going to depend on the incident and the severity of the incident,” Cooke says.

In addition, some airline tickets may be refundable even in normal circumstances, while others are not, and travellers should take that into consideration when comparing fares and booking flights.

Cooke says: “The deeply discounted fares tend to come with more restrictions.”

© The Vancouver Province 2005

Ruling may affect all our cheque deposits

Saturday, August 6th, 2005

David Baines
Sun

In a decision released last week, B.C. Supreme Court judge Bruce Cohen invoked a piece of jurisprudence that should strike fear into the heart of any reasonable person: “If the law drives us to accept what one might consider an absurd result, we must accept that.”

Well, it is a fair bet that the Bank of Nova Scotia is not about to accept the absurd result in the case of a customer who deposited a cheque for $904,563. When the bank found out the cheque was counterfeit, it quite naturally scooped the funds out of the customer’s accounts. According to Cohen’s ruling, it had no right to do so.

The net result is that the bank is out $904,563 and the customer has received a $904,563 windfall by successfully negotiating a bogus cheque. This is an absurd result in itself, but consider also the implications for ordinary bank customers: the only way banks can guard against this sort of loss in future is to hold payment on cheques for the 30, 60 or more days it takes to confirm their legitimacy. So unless the decision is overturned on appeal, you may find yourself waiting for weeks after presenting a cheque before the bank will allow you to actually withdraw the money.

The case involves two Bank of Nova Scotia customers, Audie Hashka and Paul Backman, who owned a private company called B.M.P. Global Distribution which was involved in a very sketchy business, indeed.

BMP distributed a line of non-stick bakeware manufactured by another company called Pantec Technologies. There was no written agreement between the two companies. Despite the absence of a formal agreement, BMP sold U.S. distribution rights to a person named Sunn Newman for $1.2 million in September 2001. Hashka admitted the figure was pulled out of thin air. Nobody bothered with financial statements, projected cash flow statements, business or marketing plans.

The background of Newman was also a mystery. Asked what he knew of him, Backman said: “Only that he was a sharp-looking guy that seemed like he had a lot of potential.” Curiously, given they hardly knew each other, they didn’t bother drawing up a written distribution agreement.

Despite these rather tenuous dealings, in October 2001 Hashka and Backman received a $904,563 cheque, payable to BMP, representing a down payment on the distribution deal. There was no covering letter, just the cheque.

The cheque was drawn a Royal Bank account in the name of a company called First National, and the sender of the cheque was a person named “E. Smith.” Hashka and Backman said they didn’t know either party.

On Oct. 22, 2001, the two men presented the cheque to the Bank of Nova Scotia branch at 10th and Langley in Burnaby. At the time, there was only $59 in BMP’s account. If the Royal Bank returned the cheque for insufficient funds, the bank would be in big trouble. So the manager quite naturally refused to give them any credit until the cheque cleared.

First National had the required funds in its account. By Oct. 30, 2001 the cheque had cleared and the bank released the hold. Then calamity struck.

On Nov. 9, Royal Bank officials contacted the Bank of Nova Scotia and advised that their customer, First National, had told them the cheque was counterfeit.

By this time, Hashka and Backman had spent some of the money to pay bills. In one mysterious transaction, Hashka had transferred $20,000 US to an account at Citibank in New York, payable to LMP Prestsquare, as per the advice of A.U. Salamain. Both men said they didn’t know either party.

The balance of the money — a total of $776,650 — remained in BMP’s account or had been transferred to other accounts run by the two men at the same branch.

Bank of Nova Scotia officials froze the accounts and began asking questions, but Hashka had no answers. He said he had tried to contact “Newman” about the counterfeit cheque, but had been unsuccessful.

At the request of the Royal Bank, the bank froze the remaining funds and remitted them to the Royal Bank.

Hashka and Backman, represented by lawyers Paul Jaffe and Justis Raynier, said they didn’t know the cheque was fraudulent, and there was no proof that they did know. They argued that once the cheque was settled (that is, paid by the Royal Bank), the Bank of Nova Scotia was at no risk and had no right to the funds.

Judge Cohen concurred. He said that if the bank wanted to seize the funds for the benefit of the Royal Bank, it should have sought a court order. But it didn’t, so he ordered them to return the funds.

Ross McGowan, a lawyer with Borden Ladner Gervais, was not involved in this case, but he does legal work for most of the major banks. He is too polite to call the result absurd, rather he calls it a “highly unusual and remarkable outcome.” He says counterfeit or altered cheque cases are often presented to banks. He deals with “at least once a month, and more often once a week.” Last Tuesday, he said, he had three such cases. To make the system work, he said, banks need to be permitted to charge back these cheques.

“The first implication of this decision, if allowed to stand, is that those persons who have negotiated counterfeit or materially-altered cheques . . . would receive windfall proceeds from the commission of a fraud, and that simpy cannot be allowed to stand,” he said.

“The second implication is that it would severely curtail the ability of financial institutions to allow access to funds from cheques.”

He said that, due to sophisticated counterfeit methods, it is impossible for banks to determine whether cheques are bogus. Only the customer can determine that, and that takes time.

“If this decision is allowed to stand, there would be no reasonable way to process cheques without 60 or 90-day holds. Imagine what that would do to customers.”

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Flatiron architecture to offer unique Coal Harbour address

Saturday, August 6th, 2005

All homes will have uninterrupted views at the Pender-Melville-Jervis site

Sun

RICHARD LAM/VANCOUVER SUN

Two to a floor will be the residential arrangement at Flatiron (left). Apartment 1 (left above) measures up at 1,311 to 1,455 square feet; apartment 2 (above), at 1,259 square feet. ‘. . . not everyone wants a compact or the absolute most expensive place but they still want a water view and an exclusive address, and still want the Coal Harbour neighbourhood.’

PHOTOS BY RICHARD LAM/VANCOUVER

FLATIRON

Presentation centre: 1285 West Pender, Vancouver

Centre hours: Noon to 5 p.m., Sat. – Thu.

Telephone: 604-696-0888

Website: www.flatironliving.com

Developer: The Cathedral Development Group

Architect: Busby Perkins + Will Architects

Interior design: False Creek Design

Project size: 49 apartments (two to a floor), three townhouses

Residence size: 1,272 – 1,465 sq. ft.

Residence price: $775,000 – $959,000. Townhomes are $799,900

Construction: Concrete and glass

Warranty: St. Paul‘s 2/5/10

The latest Coal Harbour new-home project with water views promises to be one of the most interesting because of its curvaceous angular architecture.

Flatiron is aptly named because the 28-storey building resembles an iron. The name, of course, pays homage to the first triangular building created in New York in 1902 named Flatiron.

Vancouver‘s new Flatiron will be located at the pie-piece-shaped intersection of Pender, Melville and Jervis streets and is expected to be completed by April, 2008.

“This will become a landmark building for the city of Vancouver,” says Jason Craik, of McNeill and Craik Marketing Solution which has already sold 50 per cent of the units since sales began two weeks ago.

“It will be the most exclusive high-rise tower in Coal Harbour.”

But Craik adds while the building is certainly “unique and sleek,” its units are priced so that won’t prohibit only the very rich from buying.

Prices range from $775,000 for a 1,272 square-foot space to $959,000 for a 1,465 square-foot residence. The three pavilion-style townhouses, two of which are already sold, have a price tag of $799,900.

The townhomes feature a private Japanese garden in the centre on the first floor and from the second floor a walkway/breezeway allows the homeowner to look down upon it. The townhomes have a large, outdoor terrace that looks out to Coal Harbour and another open and enclosed balcony. The two-level townhomes range from 1,120 to 1,213 square feet and have two bedrooms and a den.

The one penthouse, encompassing two floors, was already sold for over $3 million.

“We’re not a Yaletown model where condos are typically small, compact units or a Coal Harbour model of mostly 2,000 up to 6,000 square feet. This appeals to the middle. There’s not that many options where you can get real livable square footage at these price points,” says Craik.

“We’re finding not everyone wants a compact or the absolute most expensive place, but they still want a water view and an exclusive address, and still want the Coal Harbour neighbourhood.”

He adds so far half of the buyers are planning to use the space as second homes while the other half are downsizing and want to move into the area.

Craik says all of the homes will have uninterrupted waterfront views to Coal Harbour, with units fanning out from the base. “Everything is designed to look out,” he says.

The ground floor of Flatiron will be a cafe, yet to be determined.

He says one of the interesting aspects about Flatiron is there will only be two homes per floor so in effect you have just one neighbour.

The suites have been designed so three sides have floor-to-ceiling glass window walls, which Craik notes provides for great air circulation, acting as its own natural air conditioning. The over-height ceilings add to the 180- degree views the condos boast.

The open plan kitchen living area is “designed for entertaining” and most of the units have three balconies. One is enclosed and two are open.

The suites are rich in high-end finishing details, such as the stone kitchen countertops and counter-to-ceiling mosaic tile backsplash.

The kitchen appliance package includes stainless steel convection wall oven, four-burner gas cooktop, dishwasher and a microwave oven built into the centre island. The built-in refrigerator and the dishwasher have custom panels to match the kitchen cabinetry.

Purchasers can select from one of two colour schemes — either lacquer cabinetry or cherry wood cabinets.

Bathroom features include customized wood cabinetry, two-inch marble countertops and backsplash, porcelain flooring, a separate glass-enclosed illuminated shower in ensuite with stone bench seat and a Philippe Starck free-standing oval soaker tub.

There will be a moveable energy-efficient electric fireplace that has custom built matching surround.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Boom, bust, and ‘recreational’ housing BC-style

Saturday, August 6th, 2005

Bob Ransford
Sun

The mind wanders in August … as much as real-estate shoppers wander during the summer.

Anecdotally, I am told buying has slowed a bit in Vancouver and the suburbs over the last few weeks, a situation confirmed by the release of MLS numbers for Greater Vancouver and the Valley. Both fell month over month in July, but were much ahead year over year.

Construction, however, is picking up pace, accelerating from frenzy to almost out-of-control. In downtown Vancouver, when the pile drivers aren’t pounding away, the silence is almost strange.

It is becoming common place to run into people who ask for help with employment — not people looking for a job, but people looking to hire employees, from painters to landscapers.

Just when you thought you could meet the deadline and deliver as promised, those materials you need to finish your project are sitting in a container at the port where the trucks haven’t moved for weeks during these dog days of summer.

I am reminded that this summer may just be the end of the beginning as we race toward the Olympics.

Meanwhile, we hang our “welcome” sign out in British Columbia and the whole world seems to flock to our cities. The American tourists feel safe in our cities. The Europeans feel close to nature. The Asian tourists feel like this is just like home.

It’s hard to find a local on the streets of our cities at this time of year, with most having escaped for a week or two to the hinterland or abroad.

Speaking of the hinterland, there seems to be a mini-boom in new “recreational” housing. Ads are popping up in the strangest places for lakeside chalets, waterfront cottages, wilderness cabins and a myriad of other what I call “escape homes.”

But what are buyers of these new out-of-the-city homes really escaping to?

While many of the ads portray these places as offering the ultimate wilderness experience, my first reaction is to quickly turn to the project website in search of more details. The first thing I am always interested in seeing is a site plan that shows the location of the much coveted wilderness cottage in relation to the adjoining cottages.

Escaping to suburbia in the wilderness is not my idea of getting away from it all. If there is little more than a few trees separating my wilderness cottage from my next door neighbour, I might as well stay home, light the barbecue, turn off the radio, fill the turtle pool and pretend that I am at the lake.

The recreational housing boom in B.C. is a bit like an echo from the urban boom we’ve experienced over the last three or four years. With mortgage rates still hovering at all-time low levels, there are few barriers to entry in the real estate market.

Yet, we’re hearing predictions of an “economic Armageddon” on the horizon as the worldwide housing bubble bursts. If mounting U.S. debt causes policy-makers south of the border to change their view, we may see the beginning of a slow and steady climb in interest rates temper our local housing markets.

But the reality is people continue to flock to live in British Columbia for a whole number of reasons, not the least of which is our quality of life and climate-induced lifestyle. Robust job creation levels will likely continue through 2009 and maybe even beyond. Finally, our supply of developable land within defined urban areas is dwindling and the NIMBYs have so far been successful in resisting densification in the suburbs.

So, where does all of this lead?

Predictions are risky at the best of times. I should hardly be making them in the heat of summer as the mind wanders.

My prediction is that we will still be talking about the amazing strength of our local real estate markets next year as we gather on the patio mid-summer to enjoy the best of this place we call home.

Bob Ransford is a public affairs consultant with Counterpoint Communications Inc. He is a former real estate developer and a director of the Urban Development Institute – Pacific region.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005

Construction to start falling behind demand for new homes ‘by next year’

Friday, August 5th, 2005

Bruce Constantineau
Sun

B.C. housing starts will drop by about six per cent next year as high house prices and slowly rising interest rates combine to “calm” the province’s surging housing market, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicts in its third-quarter housing outlook report released Thursday.

The report said a strong B.C. economy and high consumer confidence in the province will fuel the construction of 33,600 housing units this year but a slight decline in activity next year will see 31,600 new units built in 2006.

A report from housing analysts Clayton Research predicts very similar housing starts numbers for B.C., with annual starts falling from 33,600 this year to about 32,000 in 2006.

The Clayton report said the B.C. housing market will benefit as the province gears up for the 2010 Olympics but notes that sluggish activity in some housing resale markets so far this year indicates the market could be due for a small adjustment.

Cressey Development Corp. vice-president Hani Lammam said the biggest constraint to new housing starts now is the fact that most B.C. builders are already working at full capacity and can’t build enough new homes to keep up with the demand.

“Municipalities are overwhelmed and they can’t get projects approved quickly enough,” he said in an interview. “We just can’t generate the housing that’s needed and we don’t expect demand to fall off. The economy is still good and the population is still growing.”

Lammam said Cressey expects to build 1,500 housing units this year and 1,200 in 2006, as the company faces a shortage of people needed to build more homes. “We don’t have enough trades people, we don’t have enough accountants and we don’t have enough project managers,” he said.

© The Vancouver Sun 2005