Archive for December, 2006

Uranium prices could reach a record high this week

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006

Mestena, a private mine in Texas, is set to auction 260,000 of the metal

CHRISIOPHER DONVILLE
Sun

Uranium prices, after surging this year because of concerns, may top a record high this week when a private mine in Texas auctions 260,000 pounds of the radioactive metal used to fuel nuclear-power plants.

Mestena. Uranium LLC of Corpus Christi is selling supplies from its Alta Mesa mine to the highest bidder as of Dec.15, said Dustin Garrow, president of ZB Marketing, a consultant in Littleton. Colo., coordinating the auction.

The price of uranium has risen 81 percent this year to $65.50 (all figures US) a pound because demand is rising and plower-plant operators are concerned that new supplies may not be available fast enough t to fuel new reactors planned for construction around the world.

-Bidding will probably come in around $68 to $70 a pound,”Kevin Bambrough, a strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc. in Toronto who follows the uranium industry, said in a telephone interview. Uranium supplies are tight. Demand is strong.”

An underground flood in October at Cameco Corp.’s unfinished Cigar Lake mine in Saskatchewan has heightened concerns about available supply. Cameco, the world’s largest producer of uranium, has said it expects the flood will delay construction of the mine by at least a year.

Before the accident, the project was scheduled to open in 2008 and Saskatoon, Saskatchewan- based Cameco predicted it would supply as much as 10 per cent of the world’s uranium when it reached full production in 20l0.

Cigar Lake is 50-per-cent owned by Gameco, with the remainder held by ARENA Resources Canada Inc., Idemitsu Uranium Exploration Canada Ltd., and TEPCO Resources Inc.

This week’s auction by Mesrena will be the company’s 11th since it began pro­ducing at Alta Mesa about a year ago, Garrow said in a telephone interview The results will be confidential, though he said he expects they will be reflected in published marker assessments.

Every time we’ve done a sale, the market price has gone up,” Garrow said.

The price of uranium rose $2.50 to a record $65.50 a pound from a week ear­lier, Ux Consulting Co. of Roswell, Ga., said yesterday. UX`s weekly price, which $36.25 >in December 2005, is based on the company’s assessment of the ura­nium market and is widely used within the nuclear industry.

The Alta Mesa mitre in Texas uses insitu recovery techniques that involve the flushing of a chemical solution through underground ore bodies and the eventual recovery of the uranium from the solution. The mine can produce about a million pounds Of uranium a year.

Global uranium consumption is about 180 million pounds a year.

Shares of Cameco rose 91 cents, or two per cent, to $45.41 Cdn on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They have risen 27 per cent in the past year.

When advertising real estate, words like beautiful are better than good value

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006

Ann Brenoff
Sun

Words matter. Wars have start­ed over them. Civilizations have collapsed because of them And

it would appear chat. the speed with which a house sells might be determined by them.

As listings grow old on the vine in areas that are flush with inventory, and frustrated sellers grap­ple for the slightest

edge, the findings of several academics might otter some guidance.

For example, a Canadian pro­fessor, as part of a broader study

on real estate sales patterns, found that homes where the seller was “motivated” actually took 15 per cent longer to sell, while houses listed as handyman spe­cials” flew off

the market in half the average time.

It surprised even me, said researcher Paul Anglin, who teaches real estate and housing trends at the University of Guelph. The study dissected the wording of more than 20,000 Canadian home listings from 1997 to 2000.

What surprised him most was

how the buying public put style over substance. Words that denoted “curb appeal” or general attractiveness helped a property sell faster than those that spoke of “value” and “price.”

Homes described as “beautiful” moved 15 per cent faster and for five per cent more in price than the benchmark.”Good-val­ue”

enthusiastically as a dinner-time telemarketing call. Homes with listings using the words “must see” had a statistically insignifi­cant impact on the number of days they rook to sell.

Listings where the word “land­scaping” was heralded sold 20-per-cent faster, and homes in “move-in condition took 12-per­cent less time to sell than the benchmark, although the study showed move-in condition had an insignificant impact on the sales price.

Owners use listing language to

convey how serious they are about selling. Some words work better than others. Anglin’s study found. Listings in which the sell­er said he or she was moving” sold for one-per-cent less in pride compared to eight-per-cent less when the seller was “motivated.”

Real estate listings, not unlike personal ads, are crafted to minimize blemishes and maximize perceived selling points. So if “enjoys moonlight walks on the beach and cooking together” means “I’m unemployed and am looking for someone who won’t always expect to eat out, then needs TLC might mean “this house will have you on a first-name basis with the clerks at the local hardware store.”

Anglins study isn’t alone in efforts to determine what language moves the market.

Last year, the impact of listing language was covered in a National Bureau of Economic Research study that looked at whether real estate agents selling their own homes hold out for a

higher price. (They do; the study found they take longer to sell but fetch a higher price.)      

Descriptions of houses that indicated an obvious problem – such as “foreclosure,” “as-is” and “handyman special”– drew sub­stantially lower sales prices.     

Words that suggested desirable attributes – “granite,” “maple,”

“gourmet” – translated into a higher sale price, the study               
found.

 

One problem discovered was that -superficially positive” words that, in effect, damn with faint praise – such as “clean” or quier” – had zero or even a neg­ative correlation with prices.

Those findings echo those made in a 2000 paper called Real Estate Agent Remarks: Help or Hvpe? researched by University of Texas finance and real estate professor Ronald Rutherford.

Rutherford found, among oth­er things, that buyers read betweon the lines. If you can’t find anything better to say than new paint,” perhaps it’s best to say nothing at all.

Positive and factually verifiable comments such as “golf” or “lake” drew increased sales prices; other presumably positive comments regarding new paint or new carpet brought lower ones. “what you Say needs to be extravagant,” Rutherford said, “or the signal that is received by buyers is that it’s not worth talking about.”

But what do sellers know?

“New paint appeared on 15 per cent of the listings and was the most commonly listed continent.

Rutherford said sellers would be best served by a listing with just the facts. “In today’s market,” he said, “if it’s a good deal, you need to coney it with factually verifiable language.”

Wickaninnish Inn in Tofina is just meters from the west coast of Vancouver Island

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Renowned Vancouver Island resort gets up close and personal

Colleen Seto
Sun

The wichaninnish Inn is just metres from the shore on the west coast of Vancouver Island. It’s relatively calm in summer but wind-whipped in winter

TOFINO — There are few places in Canada where you can leave your window open overnight in November and fall asleep to the sound of ocean waves lapping against rocks — and not wake up shivering under your blankets, to boot.

Yet visitors haven’t truly experienced the Wickaninnish Inn in Tofino and its spectacular location on the west coast of Vancouver Island until they’ve watched a storm crashing onto the rocky beach — from the warmth of your fireplace-equipped hotel room.

The Wickaninnish Inn is on Chesterman Beach, a space of packed sand and bleached driftwood backing onto an ancient rainforest.

Known for its surfing, kayaking and beachcombing, Chesterman Beach can instantly transform from serene to extreme, especially in winter.

This makes it the perfect place to experience storm-watching. Witness the ocean’s fury while staying cosy on your private balcony or sitting in front of your fireplace. If you’re feeling more adventurous, head down to the beach. Get misted with salt spray as giant waves crash along the rocky shore. Always be mindful of high tide, though.

Take advantage of the slickers and rubber boots provided by the inn — trust me, you’ll need them.

This year, the McDiarmid family celebrates its 10th anniversary since opening the inn.

Howard McDiarmid moved to Tofino in 1955 to work as a doctor. He recognized the incredible nature of the area and played a key role in the development of Pacific Rim National Park, just minutes south of Tofino.

Today, his son Charles McDiarmid is managing director of the inn and shows visitors the allure of the area.

“If you want an authentic West Coast experience, we deliver it,” he says.

In winter that experience includes storm-watching.

The vision for the hotel, long in the making, was realized in 1996. A decade and a second building later, the Wick has become renowned for its setting “on the edge of the world,” McDiarmid says. “And by providing great service and attention to detail.”

The 76-room inn is a member of Relais & Chateaux, a select few top-notch accommodations and fine-dining restaurants around the world. But even though it’s a high-end property, the inn possesses the down-home hospitality of a cheery family cabin, with McDiarmid playing host.

Another way to pass the time is with a relaxing spa treatment at the Ancient Cedars Spa. Just be sure to book early as space is limited.

If you’re in the mood for a culinary indulgence, head to The Pointe Restaurant for stunning ocean views served up with Pacific Northwest cuisine focusing on local ingredients.

Breakfast service can be slow, so consider room service instead. This way you can sip tea in your bathrobe and unwind in the soaker tub overlooking the ocean.

If you go

Depending on the type of room, rates start from $240 to $360 a night from November through February — prime storm-watching season.

Visit wickinn.com or call 1-800-333-4604.

© The Vancouver Province 2006

 

Imperial theatre – 720 Main St. will be transformed to market condos by Porte Realty

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

John Mackie
Sun

The Venus (formerly the Imperial Theatre) on Main street may be torn down for a condo project. Photograph by : Ward Perrin, Vancouver Sun

One of Vancouver’s oldest theatres may be torn down for condos.

The Imperial Theatre was built in 1912, and is the only old theatre left in Chinatown. For the last two-and-a-half decades the theatre has been known as the Venus, and has shown porn films.

A nine-storey condo development has been proposed for the site at 720 Main St. The market condos are part of a larger plan that would see developer Porte Realty restore three heritage buildings at the southeast corner of Main and Georgia and retain them for non-market housing.

The plans are still in the development stage, but David Porte of Porte Realty says currently the company is looking at 78 condos plus one floor of retail in a new building and 40 to 50 non-market units in the heritage buildings at 208-212 East Georgia, which is now the Hotel Pacific.

Heritage expert John Atkin says the Imperial/Venus is one of the last remnants of Vancouver’s original theatre district, which was based around Main and Hastings.

The other old theatre in the neighbourhood, the Pantages, is about to undergo a full restoration and will once again become a live theatre. The deal hasn’t been finalized, but developer Worthington Properties is planning to spend $7 million and $10 million to restore the Pantages, for which it will receive heritage density transfer it can use at other sites.

Atkin is dismayed that the city didn’t work out a similar deal for the Imperial.

“Nobody did the research [to realize how old it was],” he said.

“All they saw was a pink stucco porno theatre. The mindset was ‘Let’s get rid of it,’ instead of thinking ‘Wait a sec. This might be something.'”

The theatre has had an interesting life. It was built for $60,000 by Canadian Amusement Theatres, then leased out to the Seattle-based Sullivan-Considine vaudeville chain, a rival to the Pantages theatre empire.

The Imperial opened on Oct. 14, 1912 with the Sheehan English Opera Company (“chorus of 40, orchestra of 40”), which performed Il Trovatore, The Chimes of Normandy and The Bohemian Girl. Tickets were 50 cents to $2, at a time when you could get into other theatres for 10 cents.

But the timing for a live theatre was bad. Movie theatres soon became the main source of public entertainment, then the First World War was declared, sending Vancouver into an economic recession.

The Imperial never really recovered. It was known as the Garden for a while, then the Emmanuel Temple, but sat vacant for almost a decade before it was converted to Walsh’s Auto Wrecking in 1938. Walsh’s moved out in 1967, and in 1970 it was converted back to a theatre.

David Porte says his company looked at any heritage value the theatre had, but concluded it had been so badly renovated over the years it didn’t have much architectural merit left.

“We looked at it, investigated it inside and out,” he said. “Certainly inside it’s fairly grungy, and architecturally there’s nothing left inside. Whatever there may have been is long gone, and the exterior, the pink stucco, sort of speaks for itself.”

Porte says his company is planning to do a heritage restoration of the Pacific Hotel site, which is a bit older and has more of its heritage character intact. But in order to make the Pacific work as non-market housing, there had to be a market housing component, which will be built where the Imperial/Venus stands.

The entire site is spread over six lots on Main Street, which Porte Realty assembled earlier this year for $5.168 million. Porte says when everything is said and done it will be a $25 million to $30 million project. Atkin thinks the condo project will likely go ahead. But he laments that the city didn’t recognize the potential for a refurbished Imperial Theatre.

“You’ve got cultural facilities screaming for space, you’ve got the Downtown Eastside screaming for revitalization, and you’ve got the [city’s] Coal Harbour Arts Centre floating around in space with $23 million [to spend on a live theatre],” he says.

“To my way of thinking it seems silly to knock down a facility that could be a boon to that neighbourhood. Because I think the last thing Main Street needs right now is more condos, in terms of street life and what it would bring.”

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

 

British Columbian helps to develop resort on Mexico’s Sea of Cortes

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Theresa Storm
Sun

LORETO, Mexico — I felt like I was entering a scene from a John Wayne movie. As the jet descended for landing, I saw giant cordon cacti lining the runway, like don’t-mess-with-me sentinels of the desert.

Landing in Loreto, midway along the east coast of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, I half-expected Wayne and his cowboy cohorts to come galloping by.

But modernity has arrived in historic Loreto, the 309-year-old first capital of the Californias originally inhabited by a tribe of Cochimi Indians.

The desert stretches 1,771 km south from the United States border to the tip of the Baja peninsula. Leaving the one-luggage-belt airport, heading south away from the colonial town of 10,000, I took a deep breath of arid, unpolluted air. This nearly undiscovered natural playground would surely bring rejuvenation.

If things had gone as planned, Loreto wouldn’t be such a gem far off most travellers’ radar. More than 30 years ago, Fonatur, Mexico’s tourism development agency, identified Loreto as one of five sites with prime tourism potential. Unlike the others — Cancun, Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, Huatulco and nearby Los Cabos — Loreto escaped the development craze that transformed those fishing villages into mega-resorts.

Although work began in Nopolo, about 11 km south of Loreto, construction stalled after a few dozen homes, two hotels, an 18-hole golf course and a tennis centre were built. While other Mexican resorts forged ahead, Loreto now has the luxury of hindsight to do things right.

Pulling off the dusty, two-lane highway 10 minutes later, we were welcomed by the palm-lined boulevard into Nopolo.

The drone of power tools from a cluster of adobe courtyard casitas meant construction is no longer halted. Phase 1 of the Villages of Loreto Bay, a new community fronting the Sea of Cortes, is underway. The developer, the Loreto Bay Co., claims it’s the largest North American resort under construction that’s committed to sustainable development. They promise economic, social and ecological benefits for local residents and the environment.

The resort is the vision of B.C. resident David Butterfield, chairman of the Loreto Bay Co. and president of the Canadian non-profit Trust for Sustainable Development, the company’s parent.

The development is being built in partnership with Fonatur. Worth $3.4 billion, the 6,000-home, pedestrian-friendly town will be built over 1,200 hectares in nine phases. Another 2,000 hectares will be set aside as a nature preserve.

It will be 12 to 15 years before the development is complete. With only 100 homes turned over to owners so far, it’s still peaceful in this near-untouched slice of Baja.

After checking in at the Inn at Loreto Bay, a 155-room beachside resort at the development’s south end, I headed past the courtyard pool straight for the water’s edge.

Mirror-calm, it was hard to believe the Sea of Cortes is a sea at all. Yet the clear, deep blue waters — proclaimed “the world’s aquarium” by Jacques Cousteau — stretch 120 km to mainland Mexico. A single landmass 60 million years ago, the Baja Peninsula was split away by the San Andreas Fault.

An 18-hole golf course and the inn are tucked between the mountains and the sea.

Looking eastward, the stark basalt cliffs of Isla Carmen, the largest of five islands in Loreto Bay National Marine Park, rise out of the sea. To the south, barely visible, is Isla Danzante.

The next morning, we boarded El Don, a 21-metre yacht, for a snorkelling expedition to Isla Coronados.

The Sea of Cortes supports the world’s largest and most varied population of whales, including humpback, sperm, minke and other species, but the thousands of grey whales that migrate each winter from Alaska’s Bering Sea to Baja’s Pacific coast are the main event. To see this, we go 97 km west to the port of Adolfo Lopez Mateos in Magdalena Bay.

Over the next two hours, we delightedly observed scores of grEy whales.

IF YOU GO. . .

– Getting there: Alaska Airlines offers four weekly non-stop flights to Loreto from L.A. Delta will launch daily non-stop service beginning Dec. 16 from L.A. AeroMexico flies from San Diego.

– Where to stay: The Inn at Loreto Bay was recently acquired by Loreto Bay. Rates start at $142 per night, including buffet breakfast. Several new land-only packages are available, including a Humboldt squid-diving adventure. Call 1-877-865-6738 or visit innatloretobay.com.

– Tours and activities: January through early April is the peak time for grey whale watching.

C & C Ground Services & Tours: Cecilia Haugen offers sightseeing and active tours. The full-day grey-whale watching tour to Magdalena Bay is $172, including lunch. E-mail [email protected] or call 1-310-227-6522 or 011-52-613-135-0525.

Cormorant Dive Centre: Contact Juve Orozco for diving, kayaking, whale watching and other tours. Call 011-52-613-135-2140 or visit loretours.com.

– For more on the Villages of Loreto Bay, visit loretobay.com.

– For the Mexico Tourism Board, visit visitmexico.com.

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

 

Calgary housing boom loses some of its steam

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Eric Beauchesne
Sun

OTTAWA – Some of the air has come out of the Calgary housing boom with prices for new homes suffering their first month-to-month drop in two years, and one of the steepest declines among more than two dozen Canadian cities.

However, Calgary homeowners can relax, as the Statistics Canada report Monday also shows that new home prices in the oil-rich city were still more than 50 per cent higher than a year earlier, easily the steepest increase of any city.

And the city’s housing boom will not likely go bust as it did in the early 1980s, said a housing market consulting firm.

The surge in housing prices is similar to the city’s previous boom three decades ago, said Clayton Research Associates in a separate analysis Monday.

“But several other ‘giant killers’ of the mid-1970s and early 1980s boom — like escalating interest rates and plunging oil prices — are unlikely to come into play this time around,” it added in its monthly housing report.

Meanwhile, prices in Canada’s other really hot housing market, Edmonton, remained hot in October, rising a further 2.2 per cent from September, the steepest increase of any city, and were 41.1 per cent higher than a year earlier, the second steepest increase.

And while overall new house prices in Canada edged up just 0.2 per cent during the month, the smallest increase in more than a year, prices were still 11.4 per cent higher than a year earlier, although year-to-year gains in all other cities were in single digits with prices in two — Victoria and Windsor — being slightly lower.

The real estate industry expects housing sales this year will reach a sixth straight record high despite what has been a slowdown in sales in recent months.

While the housing boom has faded in most parts of the country, homeowners have had a good run, and not just in the increases in the value of their homes.

Homeowners have also seen their incomes rise over the past decade and half, something which renters haven’t, according to a separate report Monday into the state of housing in Canada by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

A modest 3.3-per-cent increase in real after-tax median household incomes between 1990 and 2003 masks divergent trends for owners, who saw their incomes rise 4.5 per cent, and renters, who saw theirs fall 4.8 per cent, CMHC said.

Meanwhile, the housing market has not only been good to homeowners, but good for the overall economy as well, CMHC also said.

“The housing sector made a significant contribution to the Canadian economy in 2005, with strong employment growth, rising incomes and low mortgage rates fuelling sustained housing demand and high levels of new construction, resales, renovation and mortgage lending activity,” it said.

The strength of housing construction in recent years, the highest since the late 1980s housing boom, has also occurred in spite of a slowing in population growth and an aging of the population, it noted.

“With population growth slowing, and immigration typically in excess of 200,000 per year, net international migration now accounts for approximately two-thirds of population growth in Canada,” it said, suggesting that will continue.

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

 

Construction set to pack bigger punch

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Derrick Penner
Sun

Construction in the industrial, commercial and institutional sectors will pack an ever bigger economic wallop in the coming years totalling $17.3 billion in 2008, up from $11.4 billion in 2005, according to Credit Union Central B.C.

Credit Union Central economist David Hobden said the boom is being driven by factors including the province’s strong economic growth, consumer spending and disposable income growth.

And while 25 per cent of the estimated spending will be on public-sector infrastructure, 75 per cent will come out of private-sector pockets for development of B.C.’s oil-and-gas sector, pipeline construction and independent power projects.

“Government spending was growing a little faster [than private sector spending] over the past three years,” Hobden said. “The need for more commercial and industrial buildings hadn’t really shown up yet.

“Now, we’re at a point where vacancies in the business sector is pretty well used up, and that’s the real growth emphasis now.”

The Credit Union Central forecast is based on measures of gross-domestic-product growth, which is expected to remain strong, and lists of possible projects, such as the provincial government’s major projects inventory, which now stands at $110 billion worth of potential work over the next several years.

Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of B.C., said the Credit Union Central forecast is on fairly solid ground, based on projects that are underway, such as Olympic venues and the Canada Line rapid transit. Many other projects, from ski resorts and hotels to mines, have already been committed.

“[Construction] is the biggest growth engine in the B.C. economy at the moment, and that’ll certainly continue probably through the rest of the decade,” Finlayson said. James Brander, an economics professor in the Sauder School of Business at the

University of B.C., said construction, traditionally, is not a stable component of the economy, because “it can go south in a hurry.”

Brander said that, if energy prices were to suddenly drop or the economy were to turn sharply hurting commodity prices, then many of B.C.’s big projects would likely be delayed or shelved.

Currently, however, energy and commodities continue to boom and “my best guess is that the chance of a real downturn in the next two or three years is pretty low.”

Finlayson said the bigger issue is whether the construction sector will have enough capacity and enough workers to build projects on time and on budget.

BUILDING BOOM

Non-residential construction, already at a high level, is set to soar to an even higher one, according to Credit Union Central B.C.

Spending

2005 $11.4 billon

2006 $13 billion*

2007 $15.4 billion**

2008 $17.3 billion**

* Estimate

** Forecast

© The Vancouver Sun 2006

 

Calgary & Victoria’s markets are seeing some price easing

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

‘Inching to a balanced market’

Ashley Ford
Province

New-home prices keep edging up in Greater Vancouver but the high-flying markets of Calgary and Victoria are starting to see some price easing, Statistics Canada said in its latest new-housing price index released yesterday.

While Vancouver prices edged ahead 0.5 per cent in October, Victoria prices trimmed their sails by 0.5 per cent.

In oil-rich Calgary, where double-digit increases have been the norm, prices slipped by the same amount, the first drop since November 2004.

Nationally, housing prices in October edged up by 0.2 per cent, the smallest monthly increase since July 2005 and below economists expectations of a 0.5 per cent.

Derek Burelton, an economist with the Toronto-Dominion Bank, said all of that is growing evidence that Canada’s housing market is finally cooling.

“We have seen some sales slowdown in the resale markets and that appears to be making its way through to new housing.”

But it is still too early to say whether house prices have peaked and are ready for a major correction. Burelton said the market is “inching to a balanced market.”

StatsCan numbers show new- home prices rose in 11 of the 21 major metropolitan areas it surveys, with Edmonton leading the pack with a 2.2-per-cent increase in prices.

“Higher costs for construction materials, labour rates and an active housing market continued to be factors driving prices,” Statscan said.

Greater Vancouver housing starts remain strong.

The latest numbers from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. show starts rising by five per cent last month to 1,405 units compared with a year ago.

The market remains dominated by multiple-unit starts and is expected to provide a wider selection of housing for consumers and improve housing affordability.

Peter Simpson, CEO of the Greater Vancouver Home Builder’s Association, said: “We will see some softening of prices for some building materials but they will most likely be offset by increased costs of land and development charges imposed by municipalities.

“We expect to match last year’s housing-start numbers and see them fall marginally to around 17,000 next year, which is still a very strong market,” he said.

“Most pundits see prices increasing but level off around the six- to seven-per-cent mark.”

© The Vancouver Province 2006

 

Building boom goes sonic

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

If you think B.C.’s construction industry has been busy, you ain’t seen nothing yet, Credit Union Central predicts

Paul Luke
Province

B.C.’s non-residential construction sector is surging into a white-hot future, says a new report. The already blistering pace of non-residential building across the province will accelerate as investment pours into transportation, commercial, industrial and institutional projects, Credit Union Central of B.C. said yesterday.

Total provincial spending on non-residential building should bound to $17.3 billion in 2008 from $11.4 billion last year, the report said.

That represents average annual growth of 15 per cent, up from 12.6 per cent annually for the period from 2003 to 2005.

“B.C.’s boom in non-residential construction is being driven by many factors, including robust growth in provincial GDP, consumer spending, disposable income and employment,” Central economist Dave Hobden said.

“Moderate growth in population, relatively low and stable interest rates and China’s surging economy are other significant factors.”

Non-residential construction comprises transportation and utility projects, as well as commercial, institutional and industrial buildings.

Growth in real gross domestic product from the non-residential sector should average 8.8 per cent a year through 2008. That’s up from 6.3 per cent over the past three years, the Central report said.

Building construction will generate the fastest-growth rate in GDP, followed by repairs and heavy engineering, Central said.

Growth should be spread widely over the province, the report said.

The building binge means the sector will account for more than seven per cent of all growth in B.C.’s real GDP from 2006 to 2008.

Surging construction will fuel dramatic employment growth.

The non-residential workforce should jump to more than 119,000 people in 2008 from 89,100 in 2005, the report said.

“Seventy per cent of forecast growth will be in specialized trades working for equipment, foundation, structural, envelope and finishing contractors,” Central said.

“The remaining 30 per cent will be in direct employment with builders and developers.”

Self-employed workers will account for more than half of the sector’s forecast job growth. Engineering projects account for about two-thirds of total construction investment in non-residential, the report said.

– – –

WHERE ARE YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK TODAY?

Estimated capital costs for non-residential projects in the B.C. government’s Major Projects Inventory total just under $80 billion, up almost $23 billion from a year earlier.

Here are 10 major non-residential projects in the Lower Mainland from the inventory:

– RAV Canada line — estimated cost: $1.9 billion

– Vancouver International Airport expansion — estimated cost: $1.78 billion

– Proposed Port Mann Bridge twinning/Highway 1 widening — estimated cost: $1.5 billion

– Proposed Cogburn magnesium quarry and ore-processing plant in Hope — estimated cost: $1.3 billion US

– Proposed Coquitlam Light Rail Transit Line (Evergreen line) — estimated cost: $953 million

– Proposed South Fraser Perimeter Road in Surrey — estimated cost: $800 million

– Proposed Golden Ears Bridge in Langley — estimated cost: $650 million

– Vancouver Convention Centre expansion — estimated cost: $615 million

– Sea-to-Sky Highway upgrade — estimated cost: $600 million

– GVRD Capilano and Seymour Water Filtration plant — estimated cost $600 million

© The Vancouver Province 2006

 

We have to build smarter, not on our open spaces

Monday, December 11th, 2006

Deborah Curran
Sun

The Agricultural Land Reserve and housing affordability have generated significant discussion in 2006.

Most recently, on Nov. 29 in The Vancouver Sun, Philip Hochstein decried the lack of affordable housing in Greater Vancouver. No one can argue with his characterization of the problem and the need for more affordable housing.

However, beyond his statement of need, Hochstein’s proposed solution regrettably resembles a 1950s style of urban development.

He suggests that one of the answers to creating more housing supply is to build on the ALR and Green Zone in the Lower Mainland. As modern cities the world over are discovering, sprawl — which is what Hochstein is advocating — is not the answer. Smart growth and density are.

Greater Vancouver still has a large amount of underused urban space, which presents an opportunity to densify to create more affordable housing.

Indeed, this vision for compact, complete communities that includes significant regional farmlands has been affirmed by the public time and again over the past decade. It is clear that Greater Vancouverites have said No to following the inefficient, low-density example of Los Angeles-style sprawl.

Starting with the Livable Regions Strategic Plan, and being affirmed with the CityPlus process and myriad public opinion polls, residents understand that more compact development is a more efficient way to improve housing affordability and quality of life.

For example, in 1997 a Viewpoints Research public opinion survey reported that 72 per cent of British Columbians believe it should be difficult to remove land from the ALR and 90 per cent believe that government should protect farmers and farmland by limiting urban development.

Hochstein’s suggestion to build on natural green space and agricultural lands as a strategy to combat affordable housing is short-sighted.

Starting with the ALR, the agricultural community in B.C. produces the most blueberries, cranberries and raspberries of any province in the country. The ALR is a non-renewable resource that generates more than $2.3 billion in gross annual farm gate receipts, pays $405 million in wages and has a $2.11-billion impact on B.C.’s gross domestic product.

In the past 30 years, 36,000 hectares of agricultural land in B.C. have been converted to urban uses, and at present we produce only 50 per cent of our food needs in the province.

The ALR, a mere five per cent of the land base in the province, is our working landscape for food security in this era of rising oil costs. When compared with affordable housing, food security and feeding a growing population are equally important long-term needs, or slices of the quality-of-life pie.

From a supply and demand perspective, research from the United States over the past decade has shown that rising land prices are more closely tied to population increases (meaning emigration and immigration) and construction costs, not to constraints in the supply of land.

Prices rise equally quickly and reach thresholds of non-affordability in places with few or no growth controls (e.g. Seattle, Calgary, Toronto, Houston, Denver.)

This research has also shown that those places with limited land supply, such as Portland and Boulder, have the most successful housing affordability strategies that reflect the smart-growth principle of being able to live in the same neighbourhood through all stages of one’s life.

Finally, one cannot ignore the simple fact that land cost per residential unit decreases as density increases.

The citizens of Greater Vancouver and the rest of the province have a new vision for moving forward — not backward.

The era of paving over undeveloped land and sprawling across every metre of agricultural land is over. Sprawl is not the answer and the ALR is no longer an urban reserve.

Our solutions lie in developing smart, compact, well-designed communities that include green space and local food production.

Deborah Curran is a land use lawyer and founding member of Smart Growth BC, a provincial non-governmental organization that supports the development of compact, complete communities.

© The Vancouver Sun 2006