Vancouver, Abbotsford among western centres setting national pace
Paul Luke
Province
Vancouver, Canada’s Pacific metropolis, will be the country’s fourth-fastest-growing urban centre. Province file photo
Fifth-ranked Abbotsford, with fine mountain views, is hot on its heels.
The Vancouver area’s robust economy will give it Canada‘s fourth-fastest urban-growth rate this year, the Conference Board of Canada says.
And Abbotsford is hot on its heels with the fifth-ranked growth rating.
After expanding by a modest three per cent last year, metropolitan Vancouver‘s real GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2008, the board said yesterday.
That expansion will lift the Vancouver area from its 10th-place finish last year, the board said in forecasting the economic outlook for Canada‘s 27 largest metropolitan areas.
“Strong consumer spending and a flurry of non-residential construction projects will propel real GDP growth to 3.3 per cent in Vancouver in 2008,” the board said.
“However, increasing prices, which will erode affordability even further, will squeeze housing demand.”
The Vancouver area’s services sector should post decent gains, its goods-producing industries will rebound and employment and personal income should post healthy increases this year, the board said.
The board warned that as Olympics-related construction dries up in the medium term, non-residential construction could become weaker than expected, hurting output in the construction sector beyond 2010.
Abbotsford, which grew by 3.3 per cent last year, will maintain that growth rate this year.
“Strong retail-trade activity and a rebound in the manufacturing industry will more than offset slower growth in the services sector and weakening residential construction,” the board said.
The gap between economic growth in western Canadian cities versus eastern ones is expected to narrow this year, but “only slightly,” the board said.
Cities east of Manitoba will score four of the top 10 positions in its 2008 outlook, up from two in its ranking of last year’s economic growth.
However, the West still has a lock on the top five spots in this year’s expectations.
Calgary has the highest expectations for this year.
“With real gross domestic product [GDP] growth forecast to reach 4.2 per cent this year, Calgary is expected to match its growth performance in 2007 when it was the third-fastest growing Census Metropolitan Area [CMA] in the country behind St. John’s [N.L.] and Saskatoon,” the board said.
Edmonton is second in the 2008 outlook, for many of the same reasons Calgary is first. Edmonton‘s growth for this year is pegged at four per cent, up from 3.6 per cent last year.
Winnipeg had its fastest growth in 10 years last year at 3.9 per cent, the board said. It is expected to see GDP growth of 3.4 per cent this year, good for third best in the country.
As for eastern cities, Quebec City is sixth, Toronto is seventh and Halifax is eighth on the 2008 prospects list.
“Although the rise in the Canadian dollar has wreaked havoc on Toronto‘s manufacturing sector, resilient consumer spending has helped the services sector pick up some of the slack,” the Conference Board said.
Victoria is ninth on the list and Kitchener, Ont., is 10th, both with expected growth rates of 2.7 per cent this year.
On the periphery of the top 10 are Ottawa-Gatineau at 11th and Saskatoon at 12th.
