Archive for March, 2008

Insurance Not Necessary In BC, We Have Torrens Registry System

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

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Insurance Not Necessary In BC, We Have Torrens Registry System

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

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Home debt greater than equity for first time since ’45

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

USA Today

As home prices fall, more sellers are putting out “price reduced” signs like this one in a subdivision in Happy Valley, Ore. By Don Ryan, AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — Three reports out Thursday demonstrated the depth of the housing industry’s weakness and pointed to more trouble ahead.

In a troubling report, the Federal Reserve said Americans’ equity in their homes has fallen below 50% for the first time since 1945.

Home equity is the percentage of a home’s market value minus mortgage-related debt.

The Fed’s flow of funds report shows home equity slipped to a revised 49.6% in the second quarter 2007 and fell further, to 47.9%, in the fourth quarter. It marks the first time homeowners’ debt on their houses exceeds their equity since the Fed started tracking the data in 1945.

The total value of equity also fell for a third straight quarter to $9.65 trillion from a downwardly revised $9.93 trillion in the third quarter.

Home equity has steadily declined even as home prices jumped earlier this decade due to a surge in cash-out refinances, home equity loans, lines of credit and an increase in 100% or more home financing.

Economists expect equity to drop even further as declining home prices eat into the value of most Americans’ largest asset.

Moody’s Economy.com estimates that 8.8 million homeowners, or about 10.3% of homes, will have zero or negative equity by the end of the month. Even more disturbing, about 13.8 million households, or 15.9%, will be “upside down” if prices fall 20% from their peak. That is, they will owe more than the home’s current market value.

The latest Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index showed U.S. home prices plunging 8.9% in the final quarter of 2007 compared with a year ago, steepest decline in the 20-year history of the index.

Pending home sales flat

Also Thursday, industry data showed that January pending home sales were below analysts expectations and remained at the second-lowest reading on record.

The National Association of Realtors said its seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes held at 85.9, the same reading as December and just short of a revised record low of 85.8 in August, at the start of the worldwide credit squeeze. The reading was 19.6% below year-ago levels.

Economists had predicted the index would inch up to 86.2.

Typically there is a month or two lag between when a buyer signs a home sales contract and the closing of the deal. Sales completed last month and into this month should be reflected in the January reading.

Regionally, pending home sales were down in both the Northeast and the South. They were up slightly in the Midwest and the West.

“Our members are telling us there’s been a pickup in shopping activity.” said Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist. “Our hope is that the increased traffic of buyers looking at homes will translate soon into more contract offers.”

The Realtors group, which is more optimistic about the housing market than most economists, projects home sales will start to rise in the second half.

“Forgive us, if you will, but may we suggest that an outsized 13% climb in prospective sales in the West will not hold up upon further review,” said Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist at IDEAglobal in New York.

“Some may be tempted to make a call of a bottom or stabilization in the housing sector, but we think that this is extremely premature. Prospective buyers may be probing the market for deals, but we strongly expect any surge in purchasing activity to a number of months, if not years away,” he said.

Foreclosures hit record

Home foreclosures soared to an all-time high in the final quarter last year, underscoring the suffering of distressed homeowners and the growing danger the housing meltdown poses for the economy.

The Mortgage Bankers Association, in a quarterly snapshot of the mortgage market, said the proportion of all mortgages nationwide that fell into foreclosure shot up to a record high 0.83% in the October-to-December quarter. That passed the previous high of 0.78% in the prior quarter.

“Clearly, it’s the worst it’s been,” chief association economist Doug Duncan said.

More homeowners, meanwhile, fell behind on monthly payments.

The delinquency rate for all mortgages climbed to a seasonally adjusted 5.82%, up from 5.59% and highest since 1985. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.

The foreclosure report showed that homeowners with tarnished credit who have subprime adjustable-rate loans were hardest hit. Foreclosures and late payments for these borrowers swelled to all-time highs in the fourth quarter.

The percentage of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that entered foreclosure soared to 5.29% from 4.72% in the prior quarter, the previous high. Late payments rocketed to a record 20.02%, up from 18.81% — the previous high.

The association’s survey covers almost 46 million home loans nationwide.

The worsening foreclosure and late payment figures come as fears grow that the country is teetering on the edge of a recession or is in one already.

The wave of foreclosures threatens to dump more homes on the already severely depressed housing market. That forces more cutbacks by home builders. Harder-to-get credit, meanwhile, has thwarted some would-be home buyers.

“Declining home prices are clearly the driving factor behind foreclosures, but the reasons and magnitude of the declines differ from state to state,” Duncan said.

Even with relief efforts underway by industry and the government, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, earlier this week, warned that foreclosures and late payments on home mortgages are likely to rise “for a while longer.”

The MBA’s Duncan agreed. “We expect some increases in the next couple of quarters,” he said. The economic slowdown, harder-to-get credit and lofty energy prices are adding to the strains, he said.

Against this backdrop, Bernanke called for additional relief and urged lenders to help distressed owners by lowering the principal amount of their loans. “This situation calls for a vigorous response,” Bernanke said in a speech Tuesday.

Bernanke’s recommendation for lenders to reduce the amount owed on troubled home loans goes beyond the position staked out by the Bush administration. The Fed chief, however, didn’t go as far as to endorse some proposals embraced by Democrats on Capitol Hill.

Among the initiatives promoted by the administration is allowing some homeowners with certain subprime home loans to freeze their interest rate for five years.

California and Florida continued to represent a disproportionate share of the country’s foreclosures. The two states accounted for 30% of mortgages starting the foreclosure process, the association said.

“In states like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, overbuilding of new homes created a surplus that will take some time to work through,” Duncan said. That glut has pushed down house prices, he said.

 

Celtic food isn’t just meat and potatoes

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

Fifth annual Celtic festival takes place on St. Patrick’s Day weekend in close proximity to pints of Guinness and everything Irish

Mia Stainsby
Sun

Kali Thurber pours an Irish whisky to go with wheaten bread and a dish of calconnon (a potato dish) at The Shebeen Whiskey Bar at the Irish Heather in Gastown. Photograph by : Steve Bosch, Vancouver Sun

Owners Steve and Lil McVittie in their Celtic Treasure Chest store on Dunbar Street. Photograph by : Steve Bosch, Vancouver Sun

It’s not exactly historically, ancestrally, culturally, politically, or even culinarily correct, but when we think Celtic celebration, we think Irish pubs, a free flow of Guinness thickened with Irish stew.

What’s wrong with that, you say? Nothing, really, except that it’s not quite the whole shebang. (That last phrase, by the way, has an Irish origin, from the word shebeen, or dwelling.)

Celtic nations that have retained their Celtic languages and culture are Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, the Isle of Man and Brittany, as well as Ireland. But historically, Celtic ancestry stretches to northern Portugal and Spain.

So while potato dishes, Irish stew and Guinness are certainly part of Celtic foods, so are haggis, Scotch eggs and kippers, deep-fried Mars Bar (a subtle Scottish creation), cider, galettes, prune clafoutis, Welsh cakes, Welsh rarebit and salt cod.

Meanwhile, the fifth annual Edgewater Casino CelticFest (March 12 to 16) takes place on St. Patrick’s Day weekend in the downtown area in close proximity to Guinness and plentiful Irish food at Ceilli’s Irish Pub, Morrissey’s Irish House, Doolin’s Irish Pub and Johnnie Fox’s Irish Snug.

Sean Heather, who owns Gastown’s Irish Heather and Shebeen Whiskey Bar (that’s whiskey with an “e,” unlike Scottish whisky) opines that the Irish Celts dominate because they are the largest Celtic group and a people who fought to foster their heritage, he feels.

“We [the Irish] worked our way free of British imperialism and fought to resurrect the culture and language. There are still towns in Ireland where Gaelic is the first language.”

Steve McVittie, who operates The Celtic Treasure Chest Bakery And Deli in Vancouver and White Rock, points out that Celts all have their own special days of celebration. “Whether it’s Robbie Burns Day, St. Patrick’s Day or St. David’s Day, each country has a patron saint and each celebrates their day with food and festivities,” he says.

He sells British Celtic foods including various meat pies (Melton Mowbray, Cornish, Scottish bridies, pork pies, pasty’s), bacons, haggis, sausages (Loren, Cumberland, Dubliner, pork and apple, lamb and mint), jams, preserves, candies, shortbreads, cookies, candies and marmalades. His breads span the Celtic nations — hovis, Irish potato, soda, spelt, kamut, Aberdeen rowies, butteries, parkins and Scottish oatcakes.

And many of the items on his shelves have historical and cultural attachments. The canned baked beans, for example, were illegal to import into Canada until after the Second World War. “It was because of the ratio of beans to tomato sauce. The British like beans on toast and for the sauce to absorb into the toast, so there’s more liquid.”

Teas are totally different from North American teas.

“British teas are fuller-bodied. Irish Breakfast is very, very rich and strong. British tea drinkers can tell the difference and come out and buy 10 boxes at a time.”

The British Butcher Shoppe in North Vancouver and John Bull British Bakery and Deli in Coquitlam are other shopping meccas for local Celts. There are some 30 different sausages covering Irish, Scottish and Welsh traditions at British Butcher. The shop sells “hundreds and hundreds and hundreds” of haggis, culminating in 2,400 pounds sold around Robbie Burns Day. “I might celebrate [on Robbie Burns Day] but I won’t eat it,” says owner Gerry Davenport.

The Welsh, meanwhile, celebrated their Celtic roots on March 1, St. David’s Day. Leeks play a prominent role in Welsh food, as do Welsh griddle cakes.

“When we were children going to school, we’d wear a leek pinned to our sweaters and nibble at it during the day,” says Jane Byrne, president of the Vancouver Welsh Society. “I remember it very well. Leek is truly the national emblem.”

Lamb is also an important food but it would be roasted, not stewed like in Ireland. “Then we make a soup [cawl] out of the bones and leftovers and leeks. It’s similar to a stew,” she says. Other prominent Welsh foods are cockles; bara brith (speckled bread with raisins or currants); bara lawr (a seaweed) eaten with bacon for breakfast; and cheeses, particularly Caerphilly, which is like a white cheddar.

“The cocklewomen of Gower were very famous,” Byrne says. “It’s west of Swansea and they picked on the beaches.” And Welsh rarebit is an actual Welsh dish, although they don’t call it that. It’s cheese, flour and beer on toast, basically. River salmon (sewyn) and river trout are very, very important, she says.

And sweets are like chewable nostalgia to many British Celts. The Curly Worly’s (a chocolate caramel), Dolly Mix, pontefract cakes (black licorice medallions), mint humbugs and fruit pastels are the best sellers, Davenport says. Sugar and Co. in West Vancouver and Clayburn Village Store and Tea Shop in Abbotsford are well-known for appeasing British hunger for sweet-laced memories.

At Milséan Shoppe, in Aldergrove, owners Rob and Maureen Robinson make a version of an Irish buttercrunch chocolate from an old family recipe. Milséan means “sweet things” in Gaelic, Rob says, and the company logo is an Irish Claddagh ring with two hands clasping a heart. The secret to their success, he says, is demerara sugar and Fraser Valley butter, which is creamy and comparable to Irish butter.

But as Heather describes traditional British Celtic cuisine, it’s food of an impoverished, oppressed people. “It’s stews and poorer cuts of meat, slowly stewed or braised.” And of course, even after the potato blight and subsequent famine and political struggles over food, potatoes are an Irish staple.

“It has a very close place, genetically and in our hearts. They love and hate the potato,” he says. “The Irish are criticized for having relied on that one crop but the truth is, potatoes could yield way more from a tiny plot of land than any other vegetable. When combined with dairy and greens, it grew big, strong, healthy people. It’s a proven fact. Through the generations, land plots had been divided up and had became smaller and smaller, and also people came in and took the land off the native Irish, who then became serfs. It’s all they ate because they couldn’t afford anything else.”

At his restaurant, Irish Heather, Heather offers Irish food of the 1960s and 1970s. “Pot pie is not Irish but we do beef and Guinness pot pie; fish and chips are English but it’s always been in Ireland. Colcannon [mashed potatoes mixed with kale or cabbage and butter] is definitely traditionally Irish.”

And on the topic of Irish whiskey (his whiskey house, Shebeen, sells 22 varieties), he says before Prohibition and Irish independence, they were the whiskies of choice in the world. “There were 3,400 distilleries in Ireland,” he says. “After independence, part of the punishment was Ireland couldn’t trade with Commonwealth countries. It lost the world market and only had a domestic market and by the time Prohibition was over, it killed the industry.”

Naturally, he prefers Irish whiskey. “It’s triple-distilled, which takes the roughness and impurities out,” he says. But fans of Scottish whisky say scotch has more complex flavours.

While he might feel competitive about whiskey, Heather is a kindred spirit with other Celts. “Absolutely,” he says. “We’re Celtic cousins. There’s always been a kinship. We were always fighting for our lives. And they’re always invited to Celtic festivals in Ireland.”

CELTIC FOOD SOURCES

Should you wish to imbibe or ingest a wee bit of Celtic flavour, these are some places where you’ll find foods of the British Celts.

British Butcher Shoppe

703 Queensbury Ave., North Vancouver, 604-985-2444

British Home Store

3986 Moncton St., Richmond, 604-274-2261

Celtic Treasure Chest

5639 Dunbar St., Vancouver, 604-261-3688

1534 Foster St., White Rock, 604-538-2277

Clayburn Village Store and Tea Shop

34810 Clayburn Rd., Abbotsford, 604-853-4020

Dentry’s Irish Pub

4450 West 10th Ave., 604-224-3434

Doolin’s Irish Pub

654 Nelson Street, 604-605-4343

The Irish Heather

217 Carrall St., 604-688-9779

(Moving to 210 Carrall St. in June.)

John Bull British Bakery and Deli

1046 D Austin Ave., Coquitlam, 604-939-4797

Johnnie Fox’s Irish Snug

1033 Granville St., 604-685-4946

Milséan Shoppe

2900 272nd St., Aldergrove, 604-856-3024

Morrissey’s Irish House

1227 Granville St., 604-682-0909

Shebeen Whiskey Bar

9 Gaoler’s Mews, 604-915-7338

(Moving to 210 Carrall St. in June.)

Sugar and Company

1348 Marine Dr., West Vancouver, 604-925-0801

 

© The Vancouver Sun 2008

Playing it safe with presales

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

Working with a REALTOR

Vancouver real estate still a seller’s game

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

Derrick Penner
Sun

Inventories of residential real estate swelled in February and sales slowed across the Lower Mainland, but not enough to turn the region into a buyers’ market, according to the latest statistics.

Greater Vancouver saw new listings on the Multiple Listings Service rise 26 per cent in February to 5,260 compared with the same month a year ago. Sales, meanwhile, declined 6.4 per cent to 2,676 compared with February 2007.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver covers the Metro Vancouver region except for Surrey and takes in Squamish, Whistler and part of the Sunshine Coast.

In the Fraser Valley, the 2,808 new property listings in the region stretching from Surrey to Mission bring total inventory to 8,185 units, a 30-per-cent increase from February a year ago.

Fraser Valley sales of 1,308 represented seven-per-cent decline from the same month in 2007.

“That is what we’re expecting [to happen],” Cameron Muir, chief economist for the B.C. Real Estate Association, said in an interview. “Our expectation for 2008 is more moderating.”

However, after two months into the new year, Muir added that market conditions are still “a little bit above what we would term balanced,” let alone in territory where buyers have the advantage over sellers.

Muir noted that the Metro Vancouver ratio of sales to new property listings dipped to 50 per cent in February, which is close to buyers’ territory. However, that had more to do with a flood of new listings in the month.

Brian Naphtali, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said in a news release that there has been enough of a shift in supply and demand to at least “[allow] people more time to make decisions when purchasing a home.”

Additional supply doesn’t seem to have affected prices so far this year. The so-called benchmark price of a typical single-family home in Greater Vancouver reached $761,342 in February, up 14 per cent from February 2007.

And sales across the Greater Vancouver region favoured apartment condominiums with 1,197 transactions, representing a decline of 5.7 per cent from 2007, compared with 1,121 sales of single-family homes, which was down 11.2 per cent from 2007.

Market activity is still strong though, Kelvin Neufeld, incoming president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, reported.

Between new arrivals coming to the Lower Mainland for work, buyers priced out of Metro Vancouver or first-time buyers “all this activity is keeping prices competitive,” Neufeld said in a press release.

The average valley detached-house price hit $544,495 in February, an increase of 7.4 per cent.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. analyst Richard Sam is beginning to investigate whether prices for detached houses hitting new highs in both markets is helping to shore up Greater Vancouver’s condominium markets.

He said sales for detached houses and multi-family units are down in the Fraser Valley, but for 2008-to-date, Greater Vancouver condominium sales are holding their own compared with 2007.

Sam suspects that some buyers who now feel priced out of the Fraser Valley’s single-family market are setting their sights closer to Metro Vancouver to buy multi-family housing.

EARLY MODERATION

In the terminology of real estate market analysts, conditions in Lower Mainland property markets are settling into balance: an even distribution of supply and demand.

GREATER VANCOUVER

Sales: 2,676 -6.4%

New listings: 5,260 +26.2%

Benchmark single-family home price: $761,342 +14%

FRASER VALLEY

Sales: 1,308 -7%

New listings: 2,808 +10%

Average single-family home price: $544,495 +7.3%

Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

© The Vancouver Sun 2008

 

Awash in sukiyaki sauce

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

New eatery offers flavourful and affordable Japanese dining experience

Mark Laba
Province

Dorothy, a server at Posh restaurant on West Broadway, prepares sukiyaki at the table. Photograph by : Jon Murray, The Province

The word posh and the term all-you-can-eat seem at odds with each other philosophically. And on that note, could you envision Posh Spice wolfing down food at an all-you-can-eat crab buffet? Well, maybe. But that Posh Spice has nothing on Mariah Carey as I soon learned at this new eatery. But perhaps I should begin at the beginning and explain how two new experiences, Mariah Carey and sukiyaki, were introduced to me. For me it was the perfect marriage of pop culture and dining although I would’ve liked to hear her do a version of the “Sukiyaki Song” that hit the top of the charts in 1963. Oddly, the song has nothing to do with the dish — just another victim of the lost-in-translation syndrome but this time on American turf.

Dropped into this new venture with Peaches, along with Small Fry Eli, who we thought would enjoy the cook-at-your-own-table spectacle. No sooner were we three steps in than the poor lad began gagging. He didn’t like the smell of the veggies. Now this has nothing to do with this fine establishment — it’s just the whimsical nature of a four-year-old’s tastebuds and olfactory senses.

So my wife and son deserted me and left me to dine alone. Table for one is a bit odd looking here. Especially with the mounds of food heaped in front of me.

I decided to sit gazing out the window at the passing parade on Broadway but everyone at the bus stop was staring right back at me. This was a little unnerving. I soon realized it was due to the Mariah Carey concert being shown on the high-def screen behind me with Mimi, as her fans call her, sporting nothing more than gold lamé hot pants and a bra: One of many breathtaking costume changes, I soon found out. I changed seats at my table for four and took in the show.

It’s a swanky looking space, kind of retro-modern chic with some futuristic glints, great wood-panelled walls, big silver funnels over the red dining booths to suck up the cooking fumes, black stone tables upon which the cooking apparatus sits, and white-leather seats. In effect, my Uncle Al with his hair-sprayed pompadour and burgundy leisure suit may not look out of place here.

Now this is how it works. The burner is fired under a large metal bowl in which sits a hill of Japanese cabbage surrounded by a pool of sukiyaki sauce. Then you’re given a checklist of the various veggies and two meat selections. Alberta Grade A beef and tender pork shoulder, sliced ultra-thin, are your meat choices and the waiter was kind enough to bring me a sampler platter of all the various tofu species, along with lotus root, chayote, various mushrooms, bamboo shoots, taro root, bok choy, pumpkin, onion, fat udon-style noodles and thin vermicelli, yam, chrysanthemum leaves, iceberg lettuce and more. Throw it all in, let stuff cook, spoon it out and eat. A raw egg was provided, which I was instructed to mix up in a bowl and dip the food from my fishing expedition into.

I slurped and dribbled my way through the meal and found the fresh organic produce and the mildly sweet sukiyaki sauce invigorating. The meats were very flavourful and tender although some veggies didn’t work as well as others and remained in a more or less raw state even after lengthy cooking times. But then you can just order another cocktail and take a breather and when you realize that it’s all-you-can-eat for just $13.88 per person, or $9.88 at lunch, that’s a high note that perhaps even Carey can’t reach.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

Bringing posh to the peasantry.

RATINGS: Food: B+ Service: B Atmosphere: B+

REVIEW

Posh

Where: 101-1788 W. Broadway, Vancouver

Payment/reservations: Major credit cards, 604-737-7674

Drinks: Fully licenced.

Hours: Mon.-Thurs., lunch 11:30 a.m.-

3 p.m.; dinner, 5:30 p.m.-11:30 p.m.; Fri. dinner until midnight. Sat. 11:30 a.m.-midnight. Sun. 11:30 a.m.-11 p.m.

© The Vancouver Province 2008

 

Smaller lots cut housing costs: Premier

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

John Bermingham
Province

Premier Gordon Campbell thinks smaller lots could help young people get into the property market.

“We’ve been aggressively encouraging municipalities to look at ways that they can reduce the cost of housing,” Campbell, a former property developer, said after a recent speech to the Vancouver Board of Trade.

He said small-lot subdivisions could reduce the price of a home by more than $200,000.

In Vancouver, he said, reducing the lot frontage for single-family homes could knock $200,000 to $300,000 off the price.

“Some fairly small decisions with regard to how subdivisions work, and how you create compact communities, can have a huge impact on the value of a home,” he said.

Bob Ransford, director of the Urban Development Institute, agreed that the price of land is a “huge component” in the price of housing.

“Size of the home and size of the lot that home is built on dictates, in large measure, the price,” Ransford said.

But with steady migration to B.C., and because the market is possibly at the height of the cycle, he doesn’t see smaller lots having a dramatic effect on prices.

“I don’t think we’re going to ever put enough supply in this market to see a significant reduction in prices,” said Ransford.

Brent Toderian, planning director for the City of Vancouver, said affordability is a big issue.

Toderian said smaller lots could work in the suburbs, where there are mostly single-family homes.

“We’re looking at smaller lot sizes, but that’s the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “If you subdivide a 60-foot lot into two 30-foot lots, neither of those is necessarily going to be affordable for a young person.”

Toderian suggested residents and planners “think about coach houses or units in garages as a rentable opportunity, plus a mortgage-helper for the main home.”

Peter Simpson, CEO of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders Association, said townhouses and condos now account for 80 per cent of new construction in Metro Vancouver.

“We’re out there looking at the available land and trying to design and build housing that uses that land more efficiently,” Simpson said.

© The Vancouver Province 2008

 

Average house price in Greater Vancouver nearing $1-million mark

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

Stuart Hunter
Province

Crest Realty agent Terry Flahiff has a 1941 home on West 10th Avenue listed for $889,000 and already has an offer after being on the market for only a week. Photograph by : Les Bazso — The Province

At an asking price of $889,000, the Second World War bungalow in the 3100-block West 10th Avenue in Vancouver seemed like a bargain to realtor Terry Flahiff yesterday.

With the average price of a detached home in Greater Vancouver nearing $921,000 last month, Flahiff’s listing could be considered a bargain.

“It’s very busy,” said Flahiff, who works for Re/Max Crest Realty (Westside) and has been a realtor since 1985.

“There are still more buyers than sellers in this market and I think that if a property is perceived to be overpriced, it sits. If it is sharply priced, we are certainly seeing people competing for these properties. I’m still in more multiple-offer situations than not.”

Helmut Pastrick, chief economist with Credit Union Central of B.C., said it won’t be long before the region’s average house price breaks the million-dollar mark.

“At some point, we are going to see that $921,000 break $1 million — it won’t be that far off.”

Andrew Ramlo of the Urban Futures Institute predicts the $1-million average price will continue to push people out of Vancouver and into multifamily developments.

“If you are in your mid-30s coming into the market at $900,000, you either have to win the lottery or have a lot of money behind you,” Ramlo said.

“It will push people to more areas where housing is more affordable and cause the land to be used more extensively.”

Nick Collier, 59, who is selling the house on West 10th that he bought in 1990, said he plans to rent and see what happens to the market.

“I was a bit hesitant to sell but it is time to move on,” said the former stockbroker. “Trying to judge the top of the market is a fool’s game.”

Cameron Muir, chief economist with the B.C. Real Estate Association, said that with prices rising by about 12 per cent annually since 2000, more people are looking to multifamily dwellings, which accounted for 60 per cent of total sales last year.

“It is a much larger share than it has ever been,” Muir said.

Muir predicts prices will rise by seven to nine per cent this year.

While the average sale price of a single-family house was $920,644 last month, Brian Naphtali of the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board noted that the benchmark price for a detached home — the price of a typical home — was $761,342, an increase of 14 per cent from February 2007.

“The benchmark is a more accurate reflection of what the market is really doing,” Naphtali said.

© The Vancouver Province 2008

Ranks of home hunters thinning out

Wednesday, March 5th, 2008

Numbers looking for a place to call home slip on waning economic confidence and affordability

LORI MCLEOD
Other

Canadian consumers are taking a more bearish outlook on the housing market, with home buying intentions slipping to their lowest level in years, according to a poll released yesterday by Royal Bank of Canada.

Flagging confidence in the economy coupled with the reduced affordability of housing appears to be giving potential buyers pause this year.

Across Canada, home buying intentions slipped by 5 percentage points year over year to 23 per cent, according to the Ipsos Reid poll. The number of respondents who said they were “very likely” to buy dropped from 9 per cent last year to 7 per cent in 2008, the lowest level since the poll was started 15 years ago.

“Considering the flurry of activity we’ve seen over the last few years, this year’s results definitely signal a change,” said Catherine Adams, vice-president of home equity financing at RBC.

The percentage of Canadians who said they were intending to buy a home within the next two years dropped everywhere but Quebec, where it increased to 21 per cent from 19 per cent. At 5 per cent, Atlantic Canadians had the lowest response when asked whether they were “very likely” to buy.

The most positive outlook for home prices came from Manitoba and red-hot Saskatchewan, with 65 per cent of respondents expecting a lift this year. Just 39 per cent of Alberta residents expect home prices to appreciate this year, the most bearish market in the poll.

“I think our experience last year has made us more realistic,” said Jim Sparrow, agent with Keller Williams Platinum Realty in Calgary. Home prices soared 21 per cent in the first half of 2007 in the city, but gave back half of that by year’s end, he said.

Mr. Sparrow said he expects home prices in Calgary, which he estimates are up 6.5 per cent year to date, to post a modest gain of 5 to 10 per cent this year.

Despite a more negative outlook, 85 per cent of poll respondents believe purchasing a home is a good investment. That’s down from 90 per cent in 2007.

A regional manager at one Canadian mortgage brokerage said there’s been little falloff in business for his brokers.

“We’ve probably seen the market slow down somewhat, but not a great deal,” said Rob Hafer, regional business leader at Invis Inc. in Victoria. “The Bank of Canada dropping interest rates is a good sign that should help feed the demand.”

The poll of 3,023 Canadians was carried out between Jan. 17 and Jan. 21, with results considered accurate to within plus or minus 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Changing attitudes

An RBC survey shows that confidence in the housing market is flagging.

How likely are you to purchase a home or another home within the next two years?

Very likely: 7%

Somewhat likely: 16%

Not very likely: 28%

Not likely at all: 49%

Total vote: 3,022

Thinking about this time next year, do you expect that each of the following will be higher, lower or the same as they are today?

MORTGAGE RATES

Higher: 46%

Lower: 23%

The same: 31%

Total vote: 3,023

Thinking about this time next year, do you expect that each of the following will be higher, lower or the same as they are today?

HOUSING PRICES

Higher: 56%

Lower: 23%

The same: 21%

Total vote: Total vote: 3,024

MAGGIE WONG / THE GLOBE AND MAIL

SOURCE: RBC

© The Globe and Mail