But majority say it’s not a good time to sell property

Derrick Penner
Sun

A growing number of British Columbians think this is a good time to buy a home, though most say it isn’t a good time to sell, a new Ipsos Reid poll has found.

The poll found that some 71 per cent of respondents said it is a somewhat good or very good time to buy real estate.

In November, only 60 per cent of respondents told Ipsos Reid it was a good time to buy.

In the latest poll, 82 per cent said now is not a good time to sell a home.

Hanson Lok, senior research manager at Ipsos Reid in Vancouver, said as market conditions improve for buyers, there also seems to be a growing number of British Columbians gathering on the sidelines to contemplate buying new homes.

Three in 10 respondents said they were considering a purchase in the next two years, up from 20 per cent when the same question was asked in November.

“We are seeing a greater number of first-time home buyers in particular looking to take advantage of more affordable homes, incentives from the government and lower costs of borrowing,” Lok said in a news release.

The new poll also found that British Columbians’ expectations for falling prices have been muted since November.

While the B.C. Real Estate Association has forecast price declines of 13 per cent in 2009 and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is predicting drops of around 10 per cent in Metro Vancouver, only 42 per cent of respondents to the recent Ipsos Reid poll said they expected prices to be lower 12 months from now.

That is down from November, when 57 per cent said prices would be lower a year later.

Across the Lower Mainland, including Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, respondents’ expectations were for a further 2.3-per-cent decline in prices.

Across the rest of B.C., respondents believe prices will drop another four per cent.

Statistics Canada reported new-home price data for December showing that in Metro Vancouver, prices had fallen 2.3 per cent from the same month a year ago.

Vancouver‘s price decline was the fourth steepest among cities on the downside of their cycles following Victoria, Calgary and Edmonton, which saw the steepest year-over-year drop of 8.2 per cent.

Victoria‘s decline in December was about three per cent from the same month a year ago.

Nationally, the housing price index declined by one-tenth of a percentage point from November to December, which weighed on gains made in the measure over the year.

The national HPI for December was up 0.4 per cent compared with the same month a year ago.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

 

Haya El Nasser and Paul Overberg
USA Today

A record 1 in 9 U.S. homes are vacant, a glut created by the housing boom and subsequent collapse.

“The numbers are further documentation of the gravity of the housing problem,” says Nicolas Retsinas, head of Harvard University‘s Joint Center for Housing Studies. “This inventory is delaying any kind of housing recovery.”

The surge in empty houses, condominiums and apartments is creating a wave of problems for communities desperate to shore up property values and tax revenues that pay for services. Vacant homes create upkeep and safety problems that ripple through neighborhoods.

“It has a contagion effect,” Retsinas says. “A house that is vacant is often a house that is less well kept up.”

A construction frenzy began pushing the vacancy rate up in 2005 but empty homes sold quickly at that time.

“This is a different problem,” says Dowell Myers, housing demographer at the University of Southern California. “It’s high now because of lack of demand. Now, vacancies we see are from units that have been empty for a period of time.”

Census numbers show:

• More than 14 million housing units are vacant. That number does not include an estimated 4.8 million seasonal or vacation homes, most of which are occupied part of the year. The combined vacancy rate of almost 15% is higher than during previous recessions: 11% in 1991 and 9.4% in 1984.

• About 3% of owned homes are vacant. In normal times, “maybe 1% should be vacant,” Myers says.

• More than 9% of homes built since 2000 are vacant compared with about 2% for older homes.

• Homes priced at $500,000 or more are just as likely to be empty as homes that cost less than $100,000.

Historically, vacant housing was more of a concern in cities that have poor neighborhoods. Now, it has hit suburbs and new subdivisions.

“You have abandoned vacant housing in Detroit but you also have it in Henderson, Nev., and Mesa, Ariz. (suburbs of Las Vegas and Phoenix),” Retsinas says.

The stimulus bill before Congress contains $2 billion to help communities buy and fix foreclosed, vacant properties.

One place hit hard is Rialto, Calif., an inland town that boomed by offering shelter from astronomical housing prices in coastal Southern California. Property values have dropped 50% since 2007. In a 40-unit development, only four are occupied, says John Dutrey, housing program manager. Vacant homes, he says, bring “squatters, you have maintenance issues, security issues.”

 

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Stephanie Armour
USA Today

Foreclosures dropped in January, a possible sign that efforts to slow foreclosures through moratoriums and mortgage modifications are having some effect.

Foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions — were reported on 274,399 properties during January, a 10% decrease from December but still up 18% from January 2008, according to RealtyTrac. The report also shows one in every 466 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing in January.

The last time foreclosures dropped was in November.

“Everybody is slowing the process down with moratoriums and workouts. There’s more caution,” says Joel Naroff, with Naroff Economic Advisors. “But it doesn’t change the reality. There will still be a lot more foreclosures to come.”

On Wednesday, the federal Office of Thrift Supervision urged the more than 800 savings and loan associations it regulates to suspend foreclosures until the home loan modification program outlined in Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s financial recovery plan is finalized. Geithner has said the Obama administration will earmark $50 billion to prevent avoidable foreclosures by reducing monthly payments for homeowners.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac extended their moratoriums on foreclosures through the end of January, and some states have taken similar steps. In December, Florida put in place a voluntary 45-day freeze on all new foreclosure actions and scheduling of foreclosure sales. The result: Overall foreclosure activity in Florida was down 20% in January from the previous month, according to RealtyTrac.

But the moratoriums raise concerns that foreclosures are only being delayed, not prevented.

“We are coming off an abnormally high month in December, so from a peak like that, having some drop is normal. Plus Fannie and Freddie extended their moratorium,” says Rick Sharga, with RealtyTrac. “A 90-day moratorium looks good on paper, but if you don’t manage it better, it doesn’t cure the problem.”

States with the top foreclosure rates were Nevada, California and Arizona. Nevada foreclosure activity in January decreased 4% from December, but the state still had the nation’s No. 1 foreclosure rate. One in every 76 homes was in some stage of foreclosure during the month.

Still, few economists say the runaway pace of foreclosures is a thing of the past. Another 3 million foreclosures are expected in 2009, according to RealtyTrac. An analysis by Moody’s Economy.com forecast 3.1 million defaults in 2009 and 13.5 million defaults from 2006 to 2011.

In addition to the recent drop in foreclosures, there have been other promising signs in the bruising housing market.

Existing home sales showed an unexpected uptick in December. Sales rose 6.5% in December to an annual rate of 4.74 million properties from 4.45 million in November, a report Monday by the National Association of Realtors said. Economists had been predicting a drop of around 4%.

“We are beginning to see some bargain hunters coming into the market looking,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

“A 10% decline (in foreclosures) is positive, but it’s after very high levels. We still have a crisis. (The moratoriums) could just be postponing.”

Rate rank		Total filings	1 per X housing units	Change Dec-Jan	Change from Jan. 08
	U.S.	274,399	466	-9.56%	17.77%
39	Alabama	920	2,323	24.83%	58.35%
32	Alaska	167	1,690	-41.81%	46.49%
3	Arizona	14,674	182	-8.07%	61.98%
22	Arkansas	1,516	849	-16.43%	29.35%
2	California	76,761	173	-14.18%	34.30%
11	Colorado	4,323	492	-18.73%	-36.73%
23	Connecticut	1,651	871	-19.85%	-55.34%
36	Delaware	174	2,233	-58.77%	0.58%
	D.C.	207	1,373	-31.46%	-58.93%
4	Florida	40,770	214	-19.76%	35.10%
8	Georgia	9,907	400	-1.24%	-7.11%
30	Hawaii	337	1,504	-32.46%	173.98%
9	Idaho	1,512	417	-5.38%	105.71%
6	Illinois	14,447	363	16.32%	85.05%
14	Indiana	4,556	610	-4.51%	-17.94%
35	Iowa	677	1,964	-23.68%	31.71%
34	Kansas	665	1,834	4.23%	92.75%
40	Kentucky	671	2,841	-23.92%	17.31%
42	Louisiana	485	3,833	-26.18%	-32.64%
37	Maine	308	2,262	13.65%	48.79*
16	Maryland	3,697	627	-16.72%	0.43%
20	Massachusetts	3,362	810	-14.21%	-57.80%
7	Michigan	11,418	397	-15.75%	6.25%
28	Minnesota	1,886	1,222	-21.65%	21.68%
43	Mississippi	275	4,563	108.33*	69.75*
27	Missouri	2,469	1,072	-24.61†	-26.50†
46	Montana	49	8,888	28.95%	-45.56%
49	Nebraska	31	25,187	-32.61%	-87.84%
1	Nevada	14,444	76	-3.96%	137.29%
19	New Hampshire	750	792	-14.29%	-9.64%
17	New Jersey	5,005	699	29.50%	-2.11%
44	New Mexico	164	5,257	-55.19%	-57.18%
38	New York	3,496	2,271	23.71%	-28.08%
33	North Carolina	2,386	1,729	-7.30%	-29.26%
45	North Dakota	52	5,972	18.18%	126.09%
10	Ohio	11,199	452	-0.54%	-12.41%
31	Oklahoma	973	1,668	-23.39%	-21.02%
5	Oregon	4,511	357	45.14%	218.80*
29	Pennsylvania	3,682	1,488	-10.61%	118.78%
13	Rhode Island	745	605	-12.46%	-4.73%
21	South Carolina	2,463	821	35.85%	462.33*
47	South Dakota	39	9,160	-13.33%	77.27%
18	Tennessee	3,662	744	-5.72%	-13.61%
26	Texas	9,754	967	2.73%	-33.64%
12	Utah	1,791	517	-4.63%	85.02%
50	Vermont	6	51,906	-62.50%	500.00*
15	Virginia	5,366	610	-25.94†	4.15†
24	Washington	3,140	874	13.40%	42.73%
48	West Virginia	74	11,928	27.59%	39.62%
25	Wisconsin	2,699	949	16.99%	28.40%
41	Wyoming	83	2,920	3.75%	93.02%
Source: RealtyTrac