Archive for October, 2009

Moving made easier with a few helpful tips from professionals

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Marty Hope
Sun

Moving a household can be stressful. For those considering a move, J.D. Power and Associates has a few suggestions:

– Don’t contract with a moving company until you’ve done your homework.

There are a number of reputable moving companies, but there also are some that are not. Check with the Better Business Bureau for recent reports about any companies you are considering.

– Understand the coverage options offered by your moving company. Hiring a professional moving company is an investment in convenience — but it is not a guarantee against damaged or lost possessions. So before moving, make certain you understand the types of protection each moving company offers.

– Finish packing before moving day. J. D. Power’s research has shown that customers who are still packing on moving day are more than 40 per cent more likely to have items go missing than are their counterparts who finish packing beforehand.

– Don’t put off unpacking. Unpacking promptly will give you sufficient time to file a claim if you need to.

– If at all possible, avoid moving during the summer months. Demand for moving company services — and often, their prices as well — tend to spike then. J.D. Power found that customers reported the lowest levels of satisfaction in June, August, and September.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

The right contractors and tradespeople can make renovations virtually pain-free

Friday, October 9th, 2009

When it’s time for a change, take the time to find the right people, materials and design

Mia Stainsby
Sun

Neighbours Nathan Clement (left), Kenny Clement and Maurina Clement enjoy cupcakes on the granite countertop in Mia Stainsby’s newly renovated kitchen. Photograph by: Ward Perrin, Vancouver Sun

The breathtaking view from the kitchen over Stanley Park and the ocean. Photograph by: Ward Perrin, Vancouver Sun

About a year ago, a sledgehammer smashed through our kitchen wall ending our renovation paralysis. We’d survived a largely DIY reno in the early ’90s but during that reno, vultures circled our marriage, hoping for reno-kill.

My partner’s a patient, detail-oriented guy; me, I’m more like the bulls in Pamplona. We’d need a referee with whistle and rule book at all times if we were to bring out the power tools again. At least this time, invisible elves would do the reno while we were at work.

Our kitchen was serviceable, but nothing special and quite cramped for space. My life as a restaurant critic meant I ate out a lot and at home, we were always in recovery mode — we tried to eat lean and mean and simple. But it was time for a makeover.

In these leaner economic times, I cut my reviews to one a week from two and I was eating out far less and enjoying cooking at home more. And I noticed how appliances were dated or on the brink of extinction. My birch floors had been attacked by a falling knife more than once and our dishwasher kind of threw up on it once, leaving it gap-seamed. The counter was cluttered with blender, espresso machine, coffee maker, food processor, knife rack, and stand mixer — eyesores all.

The best reason for a reno, though, was an unbelievably ignorant wall, blocking off a view of the water and Stanley Park. (Our house has a reverse plan with living space on the second floor.) In summer, cruise ships sail through our yard, or so it seems. The wall enclosed the kitchen from an otherwise open plan. There was also an area meant for a kitchen table when the dining area was just a few steps away.

We wanted to have the kitchen merge with adjacent hallway, family, dining and living rooms. There would be a clear view from everywhere. Light from the stairway skylight would flow into the kitchen, too.

If you’re rubbing your hands, anticipating roller coaster tales of contractors from hell, financial catastrophe, long delays, marital strife, tears and rage, so sorry — there were no psychos on this reno, no desperate calls to Mike Holmes, no disappeared trades people, no screaming matches. Eerily, it was smooth sailing. It helped that we went with a contractor and tradespeople who came recommended by friends.

Even when we totally expected damage, there was none. For example, when the granite was delivered, we expected to come home and find the stair rails ripped out and gaping holes in the wall. The granite for the kitchen island is nine feet by four (we went with Absolute Black) had to be delivered in one piece. The wall counter is just as long but half the width. Do you know how heavy granite is? I went to lift a 2-foot-by-2-foot piece of granite and I might as well have tried to lift a monster truck. Six men, like human mules, had lugged the granite up the stairs and both of the pieces were in place when we got home. There might have been one small nick on the wall but nothing else, except, perhaps for six hernias and burst blood vessels.

I had agonized over the counter surface, considering granite, engineered stone, Corian and marble. I lo-ove white Carrera marble but soon learned it’s a high-maintenance diva. Consumer sites on the web had unending debates as to whether granite, engineered stone or Corian was most dependable, but nothing definitive. In the end, granite seemed to be the toughest and I liked that it was real stone.

The biggest upset was our — correction, “my” — fault. During the reno, our pampered custom-made dining room table became the temporary kitchen with microwave, coffeemaker and countertop convection oven on it. I had put layers of protection and cork-based placemats under them but when the kitchen was done and we peeled back the tablecloth and underlay, I was shocked to see a large white map of the Soviet Union emblazoned on the black surface and another, that looked like Australia. It was from heat and steam from the appliances even though I had Pimpernel placemats under them and layers of thick fabric. In the furniture biz, it’s called clouding.

I tried something I’d heard about — rub mayonnaise on the “clouds” and the colour might return. (I didn’t, however, experiment with another “solution” to put a cloth over the clouding and go over it with a steam iron.) With the mayo, Australia sort of disappeared but still was a phantom ghost. The Soviet Union stayed so I went for broke and wiped some black stain over it, then semi-gloss urethane. In the end, of course it was a mess. We took it back to the furniture maker and had it refinished and it looks gorgeous again. Lesson learned: the more expensive the table, the wimpier it is. As I learned, it’s only happy with felt atop its surface like Kate Moss is happy with $200 face creams and nothing above a tepid temperature.

With the makeover, we have large charcoal tiles on the floor, charcoal glass tiles on the counter wall (although I’m thinking that’s where I should have put the Carrera marble), black granite counters and cherry-stained cabinets. When we have company, people still gravitate to the kitchen as I cook, but now, they stay on the other side of the island (previously they’d have been behind a wall standing there).

I learned that when it comes to design, expert advice is not the end all, be all. I declined a designer’s advice and am glad I did. I wanted lots and lots of storage but she didn’t want the pantry or cupboards over the counters. She suggested a smaller island across from the dining room. I wanted big. Another designer suggested a peninsula between the kitchen and family room as well as the island. My cabinet maker wanted to put handles on the six doors on the stair side of the island but I wanted it to look doorless with spring-loaded hardware where you just pushed the corners to open the doors. I did cave to his advice not to put a connecting shelf between cupboards over the sink and I’m sorry I did.

Since it’s totally an open plan now, I had to do something about the mess that accumulates during dinner parties. A large stainless steel trough sink swallows up all the pots and pans and could bathe all of Jon and Kate’s kids.

Now that our kitchen walls has been sundered, I feel discomfort. I have the uncomfortable feeling I hopped on the trend caboose, bringing up the rear, that style makers are ready to pronounce the death of open plan designs. Please say it ain’t so!

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Single-family home construction in Metro up year-over-year

Friday, October 9th, 2009

September increase another sign of recovery; Surrey shows biggest jump

Derrick Penner
Sun

SOURCEE: CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Metro Vancouver’s ailing residential housing sector showed another sign of recovery in September with starts of single-family homes for the month outpacing the number started in the same month a year ago, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Thursday.

Total September starts of all housing types for the region were still less than half of what they were a year ago, but the federal housing agency noted that the numbers have kept rising from extremely low levels earlier in the year, and the bump-up of single-family starts is a positive sign.

“I was a little bit surprised [at the jump],” CMHC analyst Robyn Adamache said in an interview. “It’s the first month [this year] that we’ve seen a year-over-year increase in anything, so it’s good news.”

Adamache surmised that the reason single-family developments are seeing a bit of a jump is because they are projects where builders can be more flexible in how they phase them, building only the units they are able to pre-sell, meaning there is less risk associated with them.

Metro Vancouver saw 369 single-family homes started in September, up from 337 a year ago.

Within that number, Surrey accounted for the largest number — and the biggest jump — with 191 single-family starts, compared with 140 a year ago.

Peter Simpson, CEO of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association, said his group’s members have been able to presell homes over recent months and roll those sales over into new starts, which makes them a lot happier about conditions now than they were earlier in the year.

“I haven’t had anybody complain to me for some time now,” Simpson said. “The only thing they’re complaining about now is the [harmonized sales tax].”

Builders have been able to make sales by slashing prices, but Simpson added that in some areas builders are seeing prices creep back up to levels they were able to sell at at this time a year ago.

In other data released Thursday, realty firm Royal LePage said prices in home resale markets across Canada have recovered much of what they lost in last year’s financial meltdown, although homeowners should be careful not to misinterpret what is going on.

Royal LePage said the “increase in sales activity and firming of house prices are the product of a normal market correction and not the beginning of another aggressive expansionary cycle.”

“There is the illusion of a boom in the market, but in fact what we are experiencing is the end of a normal, short-term correction,” said Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper said.

In Vancouver, Royal LePage noted that average home prices had increased 14 per cent since January, although they still remain at levels below their peak in early 2008.

On Vancouver’s west side, Royal LePage’s survey found an average $1.05-million average price for detached bungalows in the third quarter of 2009, which is the same as it was in the same quarter a year ago. Standard condominium prices on Vancouver’s east side, however, at $357,000, were almost nine per cent higher than a year ago.

For new-home construction, Adamache said the rise in starts is an extension of rising sales numbers and tighter supply conditions in the region’s housing resale market, which is spilling demand into the new-home market.

While starts are generally low, about 41 per cent of the homes that builders have started were begun in the second quarter.

However, September’s multi-family starts were still down more than 70 per cent bringing the total number of starts for the month, at 858, to not quite half the number started in the same month a year ago.

For the year to the end of September, Metro Vancouver had seen 5,644 housing starts, which was down 64 per cent from the 15,664 started in the same period a year ago.

Across B.C., builders started work on 1,467 new homes in September, down about 53 per cent from the same month a year ago.

For the year to the end of September, builders started work on 9,316 new homes, down almost 64 per cent from a year ago.

The pace of construction in September was slower than in August, but still represented an improvement over earlier in the year.

“The improving trend in single-detached home starts demonstrates there is underlying strength in new-home construction,” said Carol Frketich, Canada Mortgage and Housing’s regional economist.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Athletes’ village takes shape

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Olympians will feel right at home — and have inspirational views

Jeff Lee
Sun

This room in the Vancouver athletes’ village offers a spectacular view of downtown. Photograph by: Steve Bosch, Vancouver Sun

The view from the 12th floor of Vancouver’s Olympic athletes’ village is stunning, with False Creek to the west, downtown Vancouver to the north, and a panorama of the city’s commercial and residential districts to the south and east.

Inside, chrome fixtures are being polished, windows cleaned and furniture installed, as organizers of the 2010 Olympic Games ready the buildings for the 2,730 athletes and officials who will live there during the Games.

Come Games-time, no one will be able to miss which athletes are living where, as the athletes themselves festoon the buildings with flags, draping them from balconies or taping them inside windows.

“Can you just imagine how athletes are going to feel when they move in here?” asked Robin Petri, Vancouver’s manager of development for the project. “They will have some absolutely inspirational views.”

For all the less-than-inspirational financial and political trouble the athletes’ village has caused the City of Vancouver while under construction — including news this week that the $1-billion project is about $130 million over budget — the transformation it is undergoing is radical.

Since late summer, organizers of the 2010 Games have quietly been converting most of the 68,000 square feet of commercial space in the vast village on the south side of False Creek. Earlier this month, they took possession of the first of 18 residential buildings that will house athletes and officials. This morning, the city is giving reporters and photographers a tour of that building, at 151-181 W. 1st Ave.

Over the next two months, the city will temporarily relinquish control of the remaining buildings — concluding on Dec. 4 with the transfer of the development’s “Net Zero” building, a completely carbon-neutral building that will house seniors post-Games — allowing Vanoc to begin the laborious process of fitting them for athlete accommodations. Everything from beds to dressers to chairs and tables will be installed.

Last week, labourers with Metrocan Construction, one of three general contractors, were polishing the chrome, cleaning the windows and sweeping floors as Vanoc workers were bringing in supplies.

“You wouldn’t recognize the place now,” Petri said Thursday. “It looks completely different from just a week ago.”

The first residential parcel handed over to Vanoc included two buildings, totalling 213 units. Of those, 189 are market condominiums in a 13-storey building with sweeping views of the city. A lower U-shaped building contains another 84 units for proposed affordable housing.

In each unit, workers have carefully covered over kitchen units and sealed cabinets and other items athletes won’t need behind temporary walls. Athletes will eat in a temporary dining hall, built in a large parking area on the east side of the the site. That land was turned over to Vanoc on Sept. 8.

“We actually left the temporary walls unfinished so that athletes could decorate them with the flags of their countries or photographs,” said Corey Oswald, the project manager for 151-181 W. 1st.

The most stunning of the buildings — Building 4, which sits right on the waterfront — is expected to house Canadians.

The village features a number of passive and active green initiatives, including solar power on some of the buildings and the use of a district heating system that will capture heat from a neighbourhood sanitary sewage utility.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Housing starts take hit in B.C.’s urban centres

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Province

Housing starts in B.C.’s urban centres fell 18.1 per cent in September, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts in urban communities dropped to 14,000 last month from 17,100 in August, CMHC said.

“For the first nine months of the year, 9,316 homes were started in areas of British Columbia with more than 10,000 people, compared to 25,520 during the first nine months of last year,” the federal housing agency said.

Nationally, housing starts fell in September, but not as much as expected, reflecting more signs of recovery in the market.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts totalled 150,100 units in September, down from 157,300 units the previous month, CMHC said.

Most economists had expected about 148,000 housing starts in September. “The decline in housing starts in September is attributable to the volatile multiple-starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist.

“However, starts of single homes, which are a barometer of the trend in housing markets, climbed in September to reach their highest level so far this year,”he said.

“The rebound in existing-home sales and the upward trend in new-home construction, support our expectation that housing demand has strengthened and that housing starts will be stronger in the second half of 2009.”

Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, said “while the decline in the headline number was disappointing, the fact that construction of single-family units — a useful gauge of the trend in overall housing-market activity — posted its second monthly double-digit gain is testament to the improved tone in Canadian housing market activity.”

© Copyright (c) The Province

Prices of homes keep edging up

Friday, October 9th, 2009

Vancouver close to 2008 highs

Province

The average price of homes in Vancouver has climbed 14 per cent so far this year, a new Royal LePage survey says.

Average house prices in the region have almost recovered to the highs seen in 2008, the real-estate group said Thursday. “We’re playing catch-up for the previous slow period,” Royal LePage Westside president Chris Simmons said.

“The average selling price in the third quarter is almost where it was last year. We’re seeing a correction caused by pent-up demand.”

At $904,750, the price of a standard two-storey home in the area in the third quarter was 2.3 per cent lower than a year earlier, the company said.

Nationally, Canadian home prices are continuing to recover from the economic downturn, but that doesn’t mean the market is heading for a boom, Royal LePage said.

Although the economy is climbing out of recession, Royal LePage said the “increase in sales activity and firming of house prices are the product of a normal market correction and not the beginning of another aggressive expansionary cycle.”

What’s providing the “illusion” of a boom is the return to the normal sales cycle, which was disrupted by the recession, and a tight supply of homes for sale. “There is the illusion of a boom in the market, but in fact what we are experiencing is the end of a normal, short-term correction,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

“Once housing supply returns to normal levels, we believe the economy will support low pricing growth into 2010,” Soper said.

The recession seems to have helped the housing market as much as it hindered it in the early stages, as it created a pent-up demand that started driving the recovery once housing prices and interest rates fell, according to the report.

Affordability initially attracted first-time buyers in the spring, then “move-up” buyers, and finally in the third quarter those seeking high-end properties re-entered the market, it said.

“With the widespread availability of affordable mortgage financing, and only modest increases in home prices, affordability is better now than it has been in a number of years,” said Soper.

The average price of a two-storey home in the third quarter was up just 0.1 per cent from the same quarter last year, at $409,335, while the average price of a detached bungalow rose 0.06 per cent to $341,146, and condominiums were 0.09 per cent higher, at $243,748.

© Copyright (c) The Province

Incidental connection with clerks can tip sales scales

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Sharing the same birthday or hometown with a salesperson makes consumers more likely to buy or to buy more than they initially intended

Shannon Proudfoot
Sun

If your waitress happens to mention her birthday is the same day as yours, or you discover that a clothing store clerk grew up your hometown, chances are you’ll order an extra beer or buy that second pair of jeans.

New Canadian research shows that when consumers share “incidental” traits like a birthday, name or hometown with a salesperson, they’re more likely to open their wallets.

“Those incidental similarities can actually shape the situation in terms of your desire to buy and associate with the product or company, your attitude toward the product,” says Darren Dahl, a marketing professor at the University of B.C.’s Sauder School of Business.

“It overflows onto the purchase experience — even though, rationally, it really shouldn’t.”

The reason is that we’re hardwired to seek social connections with other people, he says, and even though these small similarities have nothing to do with the product or situation at hand, they make us more open to persuasion.

And these connections aren’t as rare as they seem: Previous research shows that the chance that two people share the same birthday is better than 50 per cent in a group as small as 23 people, the researchers write in the paper, published in an upcoming issue of the Journal of Consumer Research.

Companies seem already to understand this.

Employees at Disney theme parks and Hilton Hotels wear name tags emblazoned with their hometowns, the researchers note, and many fitness centres display detailed biographies of their personal trainers, right down to the high school they attended.

Last winter, Dahl says, he left the equipment rental centre at the Whistler Blackcomb ski resort unreasonably pleased with the unremarkable service he’d received from an employee whose hometown of Sydney, Australia — where Dahl had just spent three months of a sabbatical year — was printed on his name tag.

“Because we’d had this little moment, I was a lot happier when I left,” he says, laughing. “You discount it because you don’t want those things to influence you: ‘Oh, come on! That has nothing to do with my decision!'”

Whistler Blackcomb has been displaying hometowns on name tags of its international staff for more than 20 years, says Dave Brownlie, president and chief operating officer.

“It does create those connections, which ultimately make a difference in how people enjoy your resort,” he says.

But there’s also a risk to building these little connections with consumers, Dahl says.

“The flip side is that it raises the stakes,” he says.

“When you do this as a tactic, if the person does something wrong in the sales situation, they’re judged much harsher than if someone else had done something wrong. It’s a double-edged sword.”

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

U.S. commercial real estate next to feel chill

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Property values fall while tenants are vanishing

Diane Francis
Sun

Commercial real estate is the next economic shoe to drop. Photograph by: Mathieu Belanger, Reuters, The Financial Post

The new mantra is about to migrate from “too big to fail” to “too many to fail” as another banking tsunami, involving commercial real estate, heads toward the global economy.

“Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop,” according to James Helsel, Treasurer of the U.S. National Association of Realtors in recent testimony before Congress.

This is another delayed result of the meltdown as nonresidential property values have collapsed more than have residential properties and their loans need to be rolled over.

Commercial properties are usually mortgaged for five or more years, in tandem with the leases they have signed. But renewing or increasing mortgages will be difficult to impossible given the economic and banking climates.

Moody’s Investors Service says the value of U.S. commercial real estate has fallen from the 2007 peak by an average of 35%, more than the residential property average. At the same time, these landlords’ tenants are in trouble and so are their lenders.

This means they must sell in a lousy market, put in more equity or find themselves foreclosed because they are unable to finance.

This stalled ripple effect is starting to accelerate: Tenants are going bust; some move out in the middle of the night; existing tenants demand concessions and others pay lower rent and also consolidate into smaller space. This is the logical outcome when consumer spending disappears and retailers and manufacturers are hurt.

The Obama White House is preparing for the next round of banking/real estate crises by trying to shore up liquidity so that landlords can refinance.

Reports are that Tarp 2 is being designed to backstop the smaller, regional banks that are more commonly in commercial property lending.

Here is the landscape: America’s four largest banks have been successfully bailed out. Their exposure to commercial real estate is only 2% of assets. And their commercial exposure is mostly the trophy properties because they skimmed off the best risks.

– The banks that are 30 to 100th in size in the U.S. have a 12% average exposure to commercial property, Deutsche Bank real estate analyst Richard Parkus told Congress.

– There are US$3.7 trillion in outstanding commercial real estate-backed loans. Some US$400 billion will reach maturity by the end of 2009 and accelerate to US$2 trillion in 2010 and 2011, according to some sources.

The good news is that many of the entrepreneurs in this sector were blown out as owners in the last real estate collapse in the early 1990s, and replaced with deep-pocketed pension funds or other institutions with greater staying power. But they are also being badly impacted, signing sweetheart leases to keep tenants or taking massive write-downs like Canada’s Caisse de Depot et Placements which took a $5.7 billion hit last quarter.

The worst case scenario will be if the jobless recovery lasts more than two years, consumer spending remains lacklustre and bank losses on these properties trigger another financial crisis worldwide.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

 

Simple, Mexican-style quickie food

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Chef at La Taqueria travelled south to do her homework in the homeland of the taco

Mia Stainsby
Sun

Rafael Cuellar serves tacos during the lunchtime rush: Organic produce, free-range meat and a business card with a lot of attitude. Photograph by: Ian Lindsay, Vancouver Sun

Tripping north across the border, the cute-as-a-button Mexican taco became a North American. It went from a two-bite nibble to a meal.

Our supermarket versions of the corn taco shell are brittle while the Mexican taco shell is soft and bendable so you can fold it like a baseball mitt around the filling. We North Americans have gone even further, flattening the bottoms of the hard taco shell so it sits up straight as if to say please and thank you.

The thing of it is, if you’re going to eat tacos, it shouldn’t be a polite-society thing. Salsa should ooze and your fingers be lickable. That’s the kind of taco you’ll find at La Taqueria, which opened recently in the space vacated by Nuba, a falafel joint. The space is small and a lunchtime jam-up builds very quickly.

Often, I get tripped up when I have to give my name at the order counter but I managed to come up with a fake name without incident. (No, I won’t divulge my default name.)

The La Taqueria space has been gutted and brightened up considerably and the place is abuzz at lunch. Tacos (12 choices) are $2 for vegetarian and $2.50 for meat and fish or $9.50 for four. Tacos are the mainstay, although you can get the same fillings in quesadilla form for $4.

I had a lost-in-translation conversation with owner Marcelo Ramerez about the tagline on the business card, which reads “Pinche Taco Shop.”

“It means f—ing taco shop,” he said. That’s a bit rude, isn’t it, I say. The translation is much milder than the English meaning, he explains. But you get the picture — there’s attitude.

Ramerez grew up in Mexico in a hotel/restaurant family and prior to opening La Taqueria, he was part-owner of Le Faux Bourgeois in east Vancouver.

He brought in Tina Fineza (chef at Flying Tiger) as consulting chef and sent her to Mexico where she spent a week with his family and checked out the home of tacos. She did her homework. The resulting tacos are simple, straight-ahead, Mexican-style quickie food.

Ingredients come with better pedigree than you might expect at a taqueria. The produce is organic, the meat is free range and seafood (there’s one seafood topping) is wild and sustainable. The fish taco thus far has been albacore tuna. (It wasn’t my favourite as it was overcooked.) The meats tend to be marinated, then grilled and I couldn’t tell one from the other sometimes. But they were tasty mouthfuls — toppings include skirt steak, Pitt Meadows beef tongue; pork confit with pickled red onion; Maple Hills chicken with molé, oyster mushrooms with spicy chipotle; poblano peppers with creamed corn; Chilliwack pork marinated in chile achiote and pineapple.

Unfortunately, there’s no beer to wash it down. And for dessert, reach in the candy jar for a choice of Mexican candies.

AT A GLANCE

La Taqueria

322 West Hastings St., 604-568-4406. twitter: LataqueriaYVR. Open Monday to Saturday, 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Homes market surges

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

Vancouver price rise is too far, too fast

Province

Greater Vancouver’s housing market has stormed back to life but is getting way ahead of itself, a new report by TD Economics warns.

Resurgent prices in the Lower Mainland have risen too far, too fast and are headed for a fall in 2011, TD said in a report released Wednesday.

The average value of existing homes in the region plunged by one-third from $658,000 to $436,000 between October 2008 and April 2009, the bank said.

But this correction, needed to better align prices with personal disposable income, didn’t last long.

“This retracement of a needed adjustment is most likely too much, too fast,” the bank said.

“The current sales rally will probably wane in the months ahead.”

Resale house prices, which lag tightening and slackening market conditions by a few months, won’t likely take a sustained dip in the short term, the bank said.

August sales, after all, were more than triple their January low and were the second highest on record.

“As a result, the current momentum will be enough to restrain the annual price drop to around three per cent this year,” it said.

The report added: “While monthly prices will continue to be choppy heading into next year, the base effect should provide an annual price gain of 2.6 per cent next year.”

But the price party will be over in 2011.

Prices in the region will drop by 1.7 per cent that year as supply expands and demand weakens in delayed response to worsening affordability, the report said.

Vancouver will be the only one of nine big Canadian markets where house prices will drop in 2011, the report said.

At the moment, housing affordability in the area rests solely on low interest rates, as incomes are not yet growing substantially, TD said.

And interest rates will begin to reverse course later in 2010, depressing sales, it said.

Even before interest rates rise significantly, however, cooling demand and rising supply in Greater Vancouver will act as a relief valve, the report predicted.

Nationwide, after plunging by nearly one-third in the second half of last year, Canadian housing sales rebounded by 61 per cent as of August — barrelling past pre-recession levels to approach volumes last seen in 2007.

Strong direction from Canada’s central bank, which has kept interest rates low, and a sharp improvement in consumer confidence help explain the resilience of the housing market — as does “pent-up demand,” TD said.

Once the dust from the economic downturn had settled, the report said, people who had only held off buying a home because of uncertainty about their own financial situation found themselves in an excellent position to take the leap. Housing prices had come down and mortgages were available at “rock-bottom” rates.

© Copyright (c) The Province