Archive for February, 2010

Housing supply and demand reach closer alignment in January

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
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Home construction up sharply in January: CMHC

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Many local builders planning multiple projects in 2010

Brian Morton
Sun

Andrea Camp, Mosaic Homes sales manager, says the company has ‘much reason for optimism.’ Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports housing starts in Metro Vancouver are up 50 per cent from January 2009 to January this year; B.C. is up 84 per cent. Photograph by: Les Bazso, PNG, Vancouver Sun

A total of 917 new housing units broke ground in metro Vancouver in January, about 50 per cent more than the 609 units in the same month in 2009, according to a survey released Monday by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

The survey, which looked at urban centres with more than 10,000 people, found that Surrey led with 296 new housing starts, followed by Vancouver with 234 starts.

B.C.’s numbers were up 84 per cent to 1,699 units comparing the same two months. For Canada as a whole, starts rose 46 per cent to 8,840 units.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate for urban B.C. rose nearly 20 per cent compared to Canada’s 5.8 per cent, the highest level since October 2008.

“Last January [2009], there wasn’t too much going,” Peter Simpson, the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association chief executive officer, said in an interview. “So this big improvement isn’t surprising. We knew it would be higher [and] sales of new homes picked up markedly in the fall. And sales precede new starts.

“Many of our builders are now planning multiple releases of new projects this year. And that’s generated a like number of jobs as well.”

Despite that, Simpson added, there are potential risks later this year with the introduction of the harmonized sales tax and the possibility of higher interest rates.

CMHC senior market analyst Robyn Adamache said stronger new-home construction in January was a continuation of a trend that began in the latter part of 2009 and that the trend is expected to continue through 2010.

“We’re getting back to a decent level of housing starts again,” she said. “Over the past year, we saw quite a rebound in the resale market. That showed builders that demand was picking up again, but it takes a while to get new projects going.

“Also, inventory levels of unsold new homes have been coming down, especially on the single detached side.”

Chris Barbati, a partner with Vancouver-based Mosaic Homes, said business is definitely up for local builders after a tough year.

“[Projects] are way up from a very tough market from the end of 2008 to the first half of 2009. There was a lot of uncertainty and buyers literally disappeared for six months. We held off on a number of projects, but now we’ve put them back on the market.”

Barbati said his company, which primarily builds townhouses, has four new building projects totalling 350 units either underway or slated to begin in the first half of 2010.

Mosaic sales manager Andrea Camp added: “We have much reason for optimism, which is a good thing.”

The CMHC survey concluded that multiple-unit housing showed strength in January with concrete poured for more than 400 apartment homes in the Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA), including 85 for the rental market.

In Abbotsford, foundations were poured for 26 homes in January, compared to 13 starts in January 2009. In Kelowna, the number of starts rose in January to 161 compared to just 17 in January 2009. In Victoria, starts rose sharply from 30 to 248 in the same months.

Calgary starts rose 112 per cent between January 2009 and January 2010; 55 per cent in Montreal; but dropped six per cent in Toronto.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Housing resales to hit annual record in 2010, realtors say

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Sun

Housing resales and prices will rise to annual records in 2010, surging to 527,300 units, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

The gain would represent a 13.3-per-cent advance from 2009, and surpass by 1.2 per cent the previous peak in housing resales in 2007, the realtors group said.

B.C. and Ontario are expected to lead, boosted by low interest rates and buyers motivated to avoid the harmonized sales tax that will come into effect in those two provinces in July.

First-half activity is expected to remain strong, although the group expects national activity to trend lower as the last of pent-up demand is exhausted, borrowing costs rise and new tax regimes come into effect.

That slower pace will extend into 2011, as rising rates will continue to dampen activity. CREA now forecasts the level of sales in 2011 will drop 7.1 per cent to 490,100 units.

Prices will also hit a new record in 2010. The national average home price will climb 5.4 per cent during the year to $337,500, partially because of the rebound in activity in Canada’s priciest markets, particularly B.C. and Ontario, CREA said.

Average prices are expected to advance in every province, but will then ease 1.5 per cent in 2011.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Record housing prices forecast

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

Moves to tighten mortgage rules and curb household debt possible as market picks up steam

Garry Marr
Province

Canadian real-estate sales and prices are poised to set records this year, according to a new forecast which is bound to reignite calls in some quarters for tighter lending rules.

The Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents 100 boards across the country, said Monday it expects existing home sales to reach 527,300, a 13.3-per-cent increase from a year ago and a 1.2-per-cent increase from the record high set in 2007.

The new-home market appears to be picking up steam, too. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said there were 186,300 starts in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, the highest level of new construction since October 2008.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has warned about rising levels of household debt, which are nearing record levels. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has suggested he’s prepared to tighten mortgage requirements and continues to monitor the market.

“One of the legitimate concerns of the finance minister might be that, if you make qualifying for mortgage default insurance prematurely restrictive, it will quell housing activity, even as erosion in affordability continues,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA.

There have been some rumblings that the government is considering new rules that would require buyers who need mortgage insurance to have at least 10 per cent down and amortize their mortgage over just 25 years instead of the current 35 years. Anybody with less than a 20-per-cent downpayment must get mortgage insurance if they are borrowing from a financial institution governed by the Bank Act.

Klump’s group believes the market is going to correct on its own in the second half of 2010. CREA has called for sales to drop by 7.1 per cent in 2011.

The group says that, while average prices will rise by 5.4 per cent in 2010, to an all-time high of $337,500, they will drop by 1.5 per cent in 2011.

That view of the housing market is not out of step with some economists who think that, once interest rates rise and inventory levels increase, price increases will shrink. Year-over-year price increases in some markets such as Toronto have been around 20 per cent for the past few months.

Part of that urgency in the housing sector is being driven by the July 1introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and British Columbia. The tax would apply to real-estate services and could increase the cost of buying a home by a few thousand dollars.

© Copyright (c) The Province

Housing starts rise again in January

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Sun

Actual housing starts in 2009 totalled 149,081 units, CHMC said. Photograph by: Roy Antal/Canwest News Service, Roy Antal/Canwest News Service

OTTAWA — Housing starts beat estimates in January, rising to the highest level since October 2008, and prompting some to warn that the new supply and future higher lending rates could trip up those gains in the second half of the year.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Monday that housing starts advanced 5.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 186,300 units from 176,100 units in December.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg had called for an annualized rate of 180,000 units.

It is the highest pace of construction since October 2008, when starts came in at 197,300 units, Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes wrote in a morning note.

“Supply is rapidly coming back into Canada’s housing market compared to the extreme shortfalls of last spring through summer, and that should have one increasingly concerned about house prices later this year,” the note cautioned.

“More supply, compared to the extreme tightness over last summer and into the fall, combined with higher future variable- and fixed-rates will combine to cool housing demand and pose downside risks to house prices over the second half of 2010 and into 2011.”

However another analyst, TD Securities economics strategist Millan Mulraine, said the numbers were skewed somewhat by building related to the Vancouver Winter Olympics.

“Overall, with the fourth monthly gain in residential construction activity in Canada, it appears that the new homes market is slowly coming back to life and may finally be benefiting from the resurgence in overall Canadian housing market activity,” Mr. Mulraine wrote in a note about the report.

“However, with part of the uptick in starts likely to be coming as a result of temporary factors, namely the surge in Olympic-related housing in B.C., we believe that this report overstates the true strength of the recovery in residential construction and expect to see a modest pullback next month.”

CMHC reported that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts rose 4.4% to 165,200 units in January from 158,300 in December. According to preliminary data, urban starts rose to 10,218 units on a monthly basis in January from 7,309 in January 2008.

The numbers soared in British Columbia, where the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts rose 19.8%, while in Quebec rates rose 7.3%. Rates rose by 2.3% in Atlantic Canada, and by 1.5% in Ontario. In the Prairie region, urban starts decreased by 4.8%.

“Housing starts improved in both the singles and multiples segments in January,” Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC’s market analysis centre wrote in a release. “These increases are similar to the ones that occurred in December.”

Last month, CMHC reported that Canadian housing starts were up 5.9% in December from the month before, to an annual rate of 174,500 units, the most since October 2008.

The agency reported that in January, urban multiple starts rose by 5.7% to an annual rate of 76,300 units while single urban starts advanced 3.3% to 88,900 units.

Rural starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 21,100 units in January from 17,800 in December.

© Copyright (c) National Post

Housing starts expected to show continuing recovery, trade to stay in the red

Monday, February 8th, 2010

Derek Abma
Sun

This week’s economic data are anticipated to show continuing recovery in Canada’s new-housing market, although the country’s trade balance is expected to remain in negative territory.

Today, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports housing starts from January. Economists expect the annual rate of starts to come in at about 180,000. If correct, that would mark the fourth straight month of gains and further distance the sector from the low of just above 120,000 reached in April, according to recently revised figures.

December’s housing-start results were revised upward to 177,800.

“This upward momentum in residential construction activity is expected to continue in January,” said TD Economics economics strategist Millan Mulraine. “Unseasonably warmer weather and the strong recovery in demand for housing are expected to be the main factors pushing construction higher.”

Mulraine added that past building-permit data also point to a boost in housing starts for January.

Both Mulraine and CIBC economist Peter Buchanan are close to the consensus of their peers, calling for a housing-start rate of 180,000 in January.

“After a year that started like a lamb but ended with on a lion-like note, the building blocks still appear to be in place for further improvement,” Buchanan wrote in a research note.

On Wednesday, Statistics Canada reports trade figures for December. The balance is anticipated by most economists to come to a deficit of $200 million, coming after a deficit of $344 million in November. If economists are right, it would be the fifth deficit in six months.

Up until December 2008, Canada had not seen a monthly trade deficit in more than 30 years.

Mulraine predicted the December trade figures would show a surplus of $300 million, still considered fairly close to flat at less than $1 billion.

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun

Tips on home reno credit

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

If you run a business, you may lose exemption

Tony Gioventu
Province

Dear Condo Smarts: Do strata corporations have to file tax returns? We are a 24-unit townhouse complex. Our budget is limited to insurance, landscaping and building maintenance. Our strata fees are $250 a month and we always break even on the year. An accounting office told us not to bother as we don’t pay taxes. We’re also confused about how to give owners receipts for the home renovation tax credit.

Marjorie Simpson, Qualicum

Dear Marjorie: Strata corporations are mostly classed as non-taxable corporations under tax laws, but not all strata corporations are tax exempt.

Industrial, commercial, retail, food and hotel strata aren’t necessarily tax-exempt. Even a residential one isn’t tax exempt if it’s running a commercial enterprise. Any profits must be included in its income and it will not be considered non-profit.

The following from CRA FORM IT-304R2 is very clear: “Paragraph 150(1)(a) of the Income Tax Act, requires all corporations, including condominium corporations, to file an income tax return each year, even if they are exempt from paying tax under Part I. A residential condominium corporation that qualifies as a non-profit organization under paragraph 149(1)(l) is exempt from Part I tax on its taxable income, but is required to file Form T1044, Non-Profit Organization (NPO) Information Return, with its T2 tax return. Although it is a question of fact whether a particular condominium corporation qualifies for an exemption under paragraph 149(1)(l), most residential condominium corporations qualify as non-profit organizations within the meaning of this paragraph.”

A home renovation tax credit statement from the strata corporation must contain:

the vendor/contractor’s name, business address and GST/HST registration number

a description of the work and when it was performed.

In addition to giving owners the above, the strata corporation should keep the following:

the vendor/contractor’s name, business address and GST/HST registration number

description of the goods, purchase and delivery date (keep your delivery slip as proof ) and/or when the work or services were performed

– work description, including the address where it was done

amount of the invoice

– proof of payment — invoices must indicate “paid” or be accompanied by other proof of payment, such as a credit card slip or cancelled cheque.

Visit the CRA at www.cra-arc.gc.ca or CHOA @ www.choa.bc.ca. Tony Gioventu is executive director of the Condominium Home Owners’ Association. Send questions to him at [email protected]

© Copyright (c) The Province

Tips on home reno credit

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

If you run a business, you may lose exemption

Tony Gioventu
Province

Dear Condo Smarts: Do strata corporations have to file tax returns? We are a 24-unit townhouse complex. Our budget is limited to insurance, landscaping and building maintenance. Our strata fees are $250 a month and we always break even on the year. An accounting office told us not to bother as we don’t pay taxes. We’re also confused about how to give owners receipts for the home renovation tax credit.

Marjorie Simpson, Qualicum

Dear Marjorie: Strata corporations are mostly classed as non-taxable corporations under tax laws, but not all strata corporations are tax exempt.

Industrial, commercial, retail, food and hotel strata aren’t necessarily tax-exempt. Even a residential one isn’t tax exempt if it’s running a commercial enterprise. Any profits must be included in its income and it will not be considered non-profit.

The following from CRA FORM IT-304R2 is very clear: “Paragraph 150(1)(a) of the Income Tax Act, requires all corporations, including condominium corporations, to file an income tax return each year, even if they are exempt from paying tax under Part I. A residential condominium corporation that qualifies as a non-profit organization under paragraph 149(1)(l) is exempt from Part I tax on its taxable income, but is required to file Form T1044, Non-Profit Organization (NPO) Information Return, with its T2 tax return. Although it is a question of fact whether a particular condominium corporation qualifies for an exemption under paragraph 149(1)(l), most residential condominium corporations qualify as non-profit organizations within the meaning of this paragraph.”

A home renovation tax credit statement from the strata corporation must contain:

the vendor/contractor’s name, business address and GST/HST registration number

a description of the work and when it was performed.

In addition to giving owners the above, the strata corporation should keep the following:

the vendor/contractor’s name, business address and GST/HST registration number

description of the goods, purchase and delivery date (keep your delivery slip as proof ) and/or when the work or services were performed

– work description, including the address where it was done

amount of the invoice

– proof of payment — invoices must indicate “paid” or be accompanied by other proof of payment, such as a credit card slip or cancelled cheque.

Visit the CRA at www.cra-arc.gc.ca or CHOA @ www.choa.bc.ca. Tony Gioventu is executive director of the Condominium Home Owners’ Association. Send questions to him at [email protected]

© Copyright (c) The Province

Mexico’s bounty of beaches

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Traipsing through a bevy of sunny, sandy Shangri-Las

Anne Georg
Province

A tranquil sunrise at pristine San Auustinillo Beach. __ CALGARY HERALD

A tranquil sunrise at pristine San Augustinillo beach. Calgary Herald

As winter clenched its icy grip around Calgary, I despaired. No amount of friendship alleviated my malaise. I needed to escape. I daydreamed about hammocks, warm tropical evenings and meeting new friends. While surfing the web, I found a last-minute deal on a direct flight to Huatulco, Mexico.

I acted. I booked the flight, packed my bags and drove to the airport on a cold, dark morning, listening to radio reports warning of an impending winter storm. I didn’t have time to plan. Within six hours, I disembarked into sunshine on a hot sunny afternoon. I walked out of the airport and caught a public bus north to the newly minted city of Puerto Escondido.

When the 16th-century Spanish conquistador Hernan Cortez was asked to describe Mexico, he is said to have crumpled up a piece of paper and set it on the table. I was reminded of that on the serpentine Highway 200 to Puerto Escondido, which runs through the steep Oaxaca coastal hills.

I took the first reasonably priced hotel I found on a long stretch of beach called Zicatela and walked along the strip, enveloped in the sensuous tropical evening.

Restaurants offering an array of cuisine line the beach, each with its own music. Salsa, reggae, hip-hop and jazz collided in the evening air, creating a cacophony of musical genres.

I chose a simple outdoor eatery, sat at a table on the beach, kicked off my flip-flops and enjoyed the sound of the surf crashing onto shore.

I ordered a whole fried fish and a beer and made small talk with my friendly waiter.

My spirits began to lift. Puerto Escondido is known as Mexico’s surfing capital and Zicatela is the reason. I don’t surf, but I knew several small, protected coves ideal for swimming lie within a 20-minute walk of the town. My favourite beach was Carizilillo, where I whiled away a couple of afternoons, hanging in a hammock in a palapa (a thatched-roof, open-sided structure), drinking coconut water, eating fresh shrimp cocktails and taking frequent dips in calm turquoise water.

Another of my favourite beaches was Roca Blanca, a short bus trip north of Puerto Escondido. Miles and miles of undeveloped beach extends to the north and to the south. Once again, I found a hammock in a palapa, and bodysurfed in the moderate waves with a handful of Mexican tourists.

One morning, I forfeited a couple of hours of beach time and explored the market in the centre of Puerto Escondido, enjoying the sights and smells of the abundant produce that comes from the nearby hills.

Evenings were never dull.

I stumbled across a friendly little bar on Zicatela called the Rockaway, where I mingled with the expats and other travellers. Friday night we danced salsa around the swimming pool to a live band that regularly plays there.

Puerto Escondido is home to an emerging international music scene. Sunday night the promise of more live music took me downtown to the Adoquin, Puerto Escondido’s main tourist strip.

A pedestrian-only zone in the evenings, it features shops selling Mexican crafts, and more pizza places than taco stands. I bought my enchilada dinner from the women selling typical Mexican fare on the street.

Street food can be risky in Mexico, but I trusted these hospitable vendors, who wore pristine white uniforms and served food from sparkling clean tabletops. Then I went across the street to the tiny, funky Congo bar where I met some of the Rockaway regulars.

We grooved to edgy roots music played by a young Argentine musician passing through town. A decent local band backed him up.

The next morning I travelled south about an hour by public bus to San Augustinillo, a village comprising a couple of streets running along the ocean sprinkled with numerous small hotels and restaurants. I discovered that most of the Oaxaca coastline is exposed, offering excellent surfing conditions; but it can be dangerous for swimming.

After checking into a hotel, I found a slice of beach protected by rocks where I frolicked and chatted with fishermen and the occasional tourist passing by.

I awoke before sunrise the next day and walked along the deserted beach, meditating on the beauty of the morning and my vanishing despair.

With only a couple of vacation days left, I set out by cab to go the short distance to Zipolite, Mexico’s best-known nude beach and another surfer’s paradise. A string of modest low-rise hotels catering mainly to backpackers straggles along the beach.

I stayed at Lo Cosmico, a collection of rustic bamboo huts and simple, clean rooms built on a rocky hillside overlooking a small cove. I prefer a private bath and hot water, but I made an exception here because of the hotel’s charm. Hammocks hang in every room and in the common area. The owners are friendly and helpful.

I lounged in the various hammocks for hours, reading and chatting with the owners and the guests, talking philosophy, and swapping travel stories and personal histories. Evenings I enjoyed inexpensive, exquisite gourmet dinners at El Alchemista. I’d settled into my own version of a Corona commercial.

The morning of the seventh day, I took a public bus heading into Huatulco. The wide, manicured boulevards were eerily empty. Tourists stay in resort hotels in the several coves of Huatulco, which are separated by rocky hills.

I couldn’t see all the beaches in the short time that remained, so I took a boat tour that cruised along the coastline, revealing numerous small beaches, mostly undeveloped. We stopped at two of them, swimming and snorkelling in the warm, clear water.

I arrived at the airport in the nick of time. Sand pebbled between my toes and sea salt stiffened my unruly hair.

My despair had cowered and slunk away, tail between its legs, vanquished by the pleasure of my spontaneous escape.

IF YOU GO

– Public transportation runs frequently and costs a fraction of cabs, also ubiquitous. Be prepared to barter with taxi drivers. Where to stay:

– Puerto Escondido: Mayflower Hotel and Hostel, between the Adoquin and the town’s principal beach.

– San Augustinillo: Hotel Punta Placer, on the beach.

Zipolite: Lo Cosmico, at the far northern corner of the beach.

Where to eat:

– Puerto Escondido: El Cafecito, on Zicatela.

– San Augustinillo: El Secreto, on the main street.

Zipolite: El Alchemista, on the beach, just below Lo Cosmico. Where to have fun

– Puerto Escondido: Bar Rockaway, on the Zicatela beach strip; and Congo on the Adoquin.

© Copyright (c) The Province

Vancouver residents are already Olympic winners

Saturday, February 6th, 2010

Infrastructure projects, public transit improvements and recreational facilities became priorities thanks to the Winter Games

BOB RANSFORD
Sun

It was more than eight years ago that I wrote in this space about the way the Olympics might shape Vancouver as a city.

I suggested then that the 2010 Games would help accelerate new infrastructure projects, showcase a new form of urban development with both Vancouver’s and Whistler’s Olympic villages and focus attention on environmental and sustainable development issues. I also pointed to evidence from other international studies that suggested at the time that residential real estate markets would be largely unaffected by Olympic activity — either pre-Games or post-Games.

Interestingly, a recent UBC study concludes that the hosting of an Olympic Games does not prompt an increase in local house prices, and that prices do not crash after the event is over.

Sauder School of Business researchers Tsur Somerville and Jake Wetzel said the results of their research of cities in the U.S., Canada and Australia, including those that hosted past Olympic Games, conclusively demonstrate that while construction employment dramatically increases in the period before the Games, house prices are the same as they would be in the absence of the Games.

However, their study also demonstrates that hosting the Olympics consistently increases the rate of growth in construction employment in the period before the Games in cities hosting the Olympics.

They also conclude that Vancouver may well experience an increase in participation in sports and an enhanced public wellness, along with a meaningful boost to our identity and sense of self as a result of hosting the Games.

Well, it will be some months, perhaps even years, before we can measure whether their predictions are true in some of these areas.

However, it is easy enough now to point to other areas where both my earlier observations and their study conclusions seem to be valid.

The Canada Line rapid transit project and the Olympic Line streetcar demonstration project are two great examples of major urban infrastructure projects that would probably still be on the drawing table if it hadn’t been for the Olympics.

The Olympic Line has yet to become a long-term reality, but if it can be transformed from demonstration project to a permanent line, it might just become the trigger for a whole series of public transit improvements that shape future livable growth both in Vancouver’s downtown area and throughout the first-ring suburbs.

There are also countless recreational facilities, both new and improved, including the Trout Lake arena, the Hillcrest Park project and the Richmond oval, that became public capital spending priorities because of the Olympic Games.

The Olympic athletes’ villages, both in Vancouver’s Southeast False Creek neighbourhood and in Whistler, are showcases for ultra-sustainable development.

Even if Vancouver’s showcase for new green living proves too expensive to be a true model to be replicated, it does demonstrate the full range of green building and energy efficient technologies that we must be deploying in future new development.

It also sets a new template for a pattern of high-density development quite different from the downtown highrises that, up until now, have defined “Vancouverism“.

Finally, we haven’t ridden an Olympic roller-coaster of housing prices. In fact, we have weathered the recent economic storm very well, already coming out of one of the worst downturns ever in North American real estate activity relatively unscathed -I repeat “relatively”– and much before most other markets.

This would have not been the reality if it hadn’t been for the local job creation that was sustained by the Olympic push.

So, we will have to wait some time yet before the real Olympic impact is defined.

Measuring our progress on the short track, it is fair to say we earned a spot-on the podium.

In the meantime, enjoy the Games and may the best men and women win.

Bob Ransford is a public affairs consultant with COUNTERPOINT Communications Inc. He is a former real estate developer who specializes in urban land use issues. E-mail: [email protected]

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun