Neil Sharma
Canadian Real Estate Wealth
Housing affordability continues to dominate the conversation in the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market. A new report released by the Urban Land Institute in conjunction with PwC, called Emerging Trends in Real Estate described governmental regulation as likely to exacerbate the affordability problem.
The laws of supply and demand lie at the heart of surging housing prices. Not only are single-family detached homes in high demand and low supply, but the condo market, too, is beginning to see signs of strain, as priced-out buyers realize they have no other choice to settle for skyward balconies over backyards.
The foreign buyer tax cooled the Vancouver and Toronto markets, where prices grew astronomically, but the report makes mention of suspicious players within the real estate industry, one of whom believes growth will continue with or without the tax because of natural growth. The report also noted that prices cooled temporally before rebounding and pushing condo prices upwards.
Those interviewed by the report parroted the need for government to stay out of the market, except to address the need for increased supply. It’s unanimously believed that the approvals process is one reason supply isn’t keeping up with demand.
Affordability will catalyze a growing trend: co-living. As the number of single people among the millennial cohort in expensive markets like, Toronto and Vancouver, continue rising, they’ll live with roommates out of necessity. While some may live alone, affordability will compel them forego ownership and rent. One in three young adults in Canada lives with at least one parent, and as others marry and look to start families during an inventory shortage, they’ll settle for living in condominiums. According to the most recent Census data, 6.3% of Canadians live in multigenerational households – a number that’s likely to rise.
The ’18-hour city’ is a burgeoning secondary market. Where NYC, London, Tokyo, and now Toronto, are 24-hour cities, the high cost has resulted in an exodus to smaller cities, like Austin, TX, Raleigh, N.C., Nashville, TN, which have grown in vibrancy. Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary are considered 18-hour cities and will continue staking their claim as emergent centres. Previous versions of Emerging Trends in Real Estate anointed Hamilton an emerging 18-hour city, and that’s likely to continue as affordability drives people further from the Toronto core.
Transit infrastructure is integral to attained 18-hour city status, and Hamilton is planning a downtown LRT.
The only condo growth associated with condos in recent years has been their popularity, but they have, in fact, been shrinking in square footage. The need for larger, family-sized condos will likely buck that trend.
Montreal’s rental market is as strong as ever, however, Ontario – already suffering from a shortage of rental units – has reintroduced rent control, much to the dismay of the report’s interviewees, who noted some planned purpose-built rentals rebranded as condos. Ontario’s rental vacancy rate is dangerously low, and it’s expected it could worsen.
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