TRREB Predicts Strong Demand To Persist Through 2022
Rachel Rehkopk
other
Active listings in the Toronto Region are down at their lowest levels in more than two decades according to the latest numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB).
In their January 2022 release, we can see that despite being in a new calendar year, not much has changed in terms of GTA market conditions from last month. There are still too few homes listed for sale compared to the total number of buyers who are searching, creating an incredibly competitive marketplace with strong price pressure.
Despite record-low inventory levels, January of 2022 still saw 5,636 transactions, the second-highest on record (second to last year’s 6,888 sales, down 18.2%). New listings also fell in relative lockstep, down 15.5% when compared to last year, leading to only 4,140 active listings on the market.
Like we saw throughout 2021, these tight market conditions are contributing to price growth within the GTA. The average price for a home in the region climbed to $1,242,793 in January, up 28.6% year-over-year. In many regions, tight market conditions have led to strong price growth when compared to more recent months. On average across the region, the price of a detached, semi-detached, and condo-townhouse grew approximately 10% from last month alone, up 9%, 11%, and 11% respectively.
Related read: Why this might be the best time in 2022 to sell your home.
According to TRREB’s 2022 Market Outlook, the trends we’re already seeing in January are predicted to continue playing out through the rest of the year: including strong consumer demand, and low inventory leading to a competitive landscape for buyers.
TRREB Predicts 2022 Will See Strong Price Growth, But Won’t Beat Sales Records Set In 2021
TRREB suggests in their 2022 Market Outlook that total sales volume in the GTA will reach 110,000 in 2022, which is a decline from last year’s record-setting peak, but still a strong year by any historical standards. If their prediction rings true, it will be the third-highest year in recent history, just behind 2016 with 113,040 transactions.
Despite slowing sales numbers, TRREB doesn’t think that prices are set to fall in the Region. They suggest we’ll see an approximate 12% year-over-year price increase, bringing the average price of a home in the region to $1,225,000 by the end of the year.
Factors Contributing to Growing Real Estate Prices in 2022
When it comes to why TRREB is forecasting continued price growth into the new year, it all comes down to persistent demand for housing in the Region. TRREB President, Kevin Crigger explains:
“Immigration into Canada and the GTA is expected to be at or near record levels in 2022. All of these people will require a place to live. On top of this, job creation in average to above-average income sectors is expected to remain strong, further buoying consumer confidence to make a large-ticket purchase of a home. Unfortunately, the supply of listings will remain constrained, sustaining strong competition between buyers and double-digit growth in selling prices.”
Here’s an overview of the key market factors TRREB suggests will have a positive impact on the market:
Labour Market Recovery
TRREB cites that the overall economic outlook for high-quality job creation will remain high in 2022, giving many residents of the GTA increased confidence in their ability to gain or retain employment in the long term that will help them afford the ongoing costs of a home purchase.
Simply put, people who feel confident in their employment are more comfortable with undertaking the commitment of buying a home. TRREB sees this economic optimism as a strong indicator that housing demand will continue into the new year.
Near-Record Levels of Immigration
After nearly two years of global border closures and related public health measures, TRREB notes that the federal government’s pandemic recovery plan puts increasing immigration into renewed focus. Record, or near-record levels of immigration are expected in the coming years in the Toronto Region – and with this comes increased demand for all types of housing, both to purchase or rent. This increase in demand will continue to create competitive conditions for buyers, ultimately leading to price growth.
Persistent Low Inventory
As the real estate board cited throughout 2021, the available supply of homes in the market isn’t keeping pace with record levels of demand, leading to rapid price appreciation in the most competitive markets.
The above-mentioned economic optimism as it pertains to the labour market for high-earners, coupled with increasing immigration levels, sets the scene for strong demand to persist into the new year.
Factors Contributing to Lower Sales Volumes in 2022
Despite a strong demand for real estate into the new year, TRREB still predicts that we will see fewer sales this year than we did last – although, they’ll be at a higher price point. To explain this perspective, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer explains,
“While home sales will remain strong historically, there are a few key factors that will see transactions slightly off last year’s record pace. First, higher borrowing costs in 2022 will see some households on the margin of affordability temporarily put their purchase on hold. Second, after above-average per capita home sales in 2021, there will be some give-back in 2022, simply because the pool of ready buyers will be smaller. Finally, the perpetual lack of inventory in the GTA will preclude some willing buyers from getting a deal done – simply put: you can’t buy what’s not available for sale.”
Low Inventory Continues to Constrain the Market
While low inventory is playing a role in driving up real estate prices, it’s also playing a role in reducing the total number of potential sales. TRREB’s research also suggests that intentions to list will likely remain flat from 2021, or decrease slightly, meaning we’re unlikely to see significant changes to this low-inventory environment in the upcoming year.
Normalization in Per-Capita Home Sales
During the pandemic, many households experienced higher than usual savings rates, as commuting, taking vacations, and going out to bars and restaurants were largely put on pause. This factor, coupled with historically low borrowing costs, led to record levels of home purchases in 2020 and 2021, well above the per-capita norm in the GTA.
TRREB suggests that these conditions may have contributed to many households purchasing sooner than they otherwise would have, so we may experience some “giveback” of these sales in 2022 and 2023 – meaning a slightly reduced consumer demand from this group of buyers. However, TRREB cautions that the extent of this “giveback” will likely be mitigated through the increase of demand expected from immigrations.
Higher Borrowing Costs
The Bank of Canada made it clear in their last announcement that higher interest rates are coming in the near future. And, generally speaking, higher borrowing costs tend to lead to fewer home sales – helping to explain why we likely won’t see 2022’s sales volumes beat the records set last year.
When it comes to how higher borrowing costs may impact pricing, TRREB cites that due to the stress test buyers already need to qualify higher than their current contract rate, so we will likely see the qualification standard that buyers are eligible to borrow remain the same for most of 2022. This means that despite rate increases, the amount a buyer can qualify for is anticipated to remain constant.
How Does This Compare to Other 2022 Predictions?
The Toronto Regional Board isn’t the only group forecasting a strong, but moderated, 2022 market. The Canadian Real Estate Association called for a very similar 11% price growth across Ontario, also citing that lower sales volumes are to be expected.
To find out more about what Zoocasa’s team is predicting for the 2022 market, read our 2022 Market Trend Report here.
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