Analysts: Large BoC hikes will likely end sooner than later

Ephraim Vecina
other

The increments in the central bank’s rate hikes will become narrower in the foreseeable future, analysts say

 After three oversized rate hikes pegged at 0.5%, the Bank of Canada is expected to slow down the pace of its policy tightening, analysts estimated.

Approximately three or four more hikes in the neighbourhood of 0.25% are likely after those substantial increases, with the central bank set to stop at around 3%, according to economists polled by Bloomberg.

“We believe that risks tilt to the upside. The Bank of Canada is likely to update inflation forecasts even higher in July. If price pressures persist into [Q3], it may be difficult for the central bank to pause in [the second half of the year], but a stepdown to 25 basis points is certainly possible,” said Angelo Manolatos and Ira Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence.

Read more: Impact of BoC hikes particularly apparent in new mortgages, renewals

At stake is the Canadian public’s faith in the central bank’s capacity to rein in soaring inflation levels, which have reached heights not seen in more than three decades.

“If [Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem] is worried about his credibility, what he probably has to do – and this is the unfortunate thing – is he probably has to overdo it, in terms of interest rate increases and risk a little bit more,” said Christopher Ragan, founding director of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University.

A recent Reuters poll of economists concluded that the Bank will almost certainly hike the overnight rate by another 50 basis points on June 1, building on a previous 0.5% upward adjustment in April. These rank as the central bank’s largest hikes in 22 years.

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Metro Vancouver suburbs take hardest home sales hit

Frank O’ Brien
Western Investor

Housing sales will plunge by 30 per cent in the Fraser Valley this year and prices will “flatline” by 2023, BCREA forecasts

 Housing sales in the Fraser Valley will fall more than 30 per cent this year – most in the province – compared to 2021 and Valley price increases will flatline by 2023, according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA).

The average price forecast may prove optimistic. Recent listings show price reductions ranging from $10,000 to $300,000 on more than 300 Fraser Valley condos, townhomes and detached houses.

No area of British Columbia will be immune to the sales downturn and price corrections, according to the BCREA’s 2022 Second Quarter Housing Forecast, released May 31.

Multiple Listing Service residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 22 per cent from a record high 2021 to 97,240 units this year. In 2023, MLS residential sales are forecast to fall an additional 12.4 per cent to 85,150 units, the forecasts states.

“After a strong first quarter, B.C. markets are now adjusting to a much different interest rate environment,” said BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson. “With mortgage rates surpassing 4 per cent for the first time in over a decade, the housing market over the next two years may have very little resemblance to the housing market of the past year.”

BCREA anticipates “that prices may be somewhat volatile but will ultimately flatten out through 2023.”

The biggest sales declines this year are forecast in the Fraser Valley, down 30.3 per cent from a year earlier, and Chilliwack, with a 27.1 per cent decline. Greater Vancouver housing sales will drop 22 per cent in 2022 from a year earlier, which matches the sales forecast for the province, according to the BCREA.

The BCREA predicts that home prices will increase 11.5 per cent this year compared to 2021, but that now appears optimistic based on recent listings information, particularly in the Lower Mainland.

On May 31, real estate listing portal ojohome posted more than 300 homes in Surrey where the listing price had been reduced. An example is a 7-bedroom luxury detached house on 62 Avenue, Surrey, where the asking price was cut by $301,000 to $1.99 million after 13 days on the market.

The Royal Bank of Canada is forecasting that B.C. will see the largest price reductions in Canada next year, due to rising interest rates.

Most analysts now expect the Bank of Canada to increase its key overnight lending rate with consecutive rate hikes of 50 basis points on June 1 and in July, which would bring the key rate from 0.25 per cent to 2 per cent in a matter of four months.

© 2022 Western Investor

Metro Vancouver suburbs take hardest home sales hit

Frank O Brien
Western Investor

Metro Vancouver suburbs take hardest home sales hit

Frank O Brien
Western Investor

Where can Canadians buy a home under $200,000?

Fergal McAlinden
other

A new study shows a “glimmer of hope” for buyers with a set spending limit
Home prices across Canada’s hottest housing markets shot through the roof during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, pushing affordability even further out of reach for many first-time buyers.
Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa and Hamilton all made the list in Oxford Economics’ top 10 most expensive cities for real estate in North America last October, with Vancouver named most unaffordable according to that company’s housing affordability index for 2021’s second quarter.
Skyrocketing house prices – driven both by feverish demand and a chronic lack of supply – have led many Canadians to wonder whether buying a home is merely a pipe dream as the affordability crisis continues to deepen.
The reliance of many buyers on the so-called “Bank of Mom and Dad” – assistance from parents or relatives to help fund their down payment – has grown precipitously, with CIBC estimating that over $10 billion was gifted by Canadians between October 2020 and the same month in 2021.
In Toronto, the first quarter of 2021 saw buyers who received assistance from their parents when buying for the first time receive an average of $130,000 from their parents. That figure was surpassed in Vancouver, where gifted payments averaged $180,000.
Those moving to larger properties received an average of $340,000 in parental assistance in Vancouver, and nearly $200,000 in Toronto.
Is there any light at the end of the tunnel for buyers who are unable to turn to relatives for support in the purchasing process? A new report from real estate analyst Point2 has investigated whether there are still properties available in Canada for under $200,000 – with that study finding “regional pockets of affordability” despite the grim outlook for buyers in the hottest markets.
Read next: In-law suites – why their popularity is surging
Unsurprisingly, it’s nigh on impossible to find one of those properties in the country’s largest 50 (and most expensive) cities. Thirty-eight of those cities featured zero listings for under $200,000 – all in British Columbia and Ontario.
Still, the largest cities in Quebec, Atlantic Canada and the Prairies offer some grounds for positivity among new buyers, with the latter featuring the most home sales for under $200,000 (especially in Edmonton, Alberta and Regina, Saskatchewan).
Ontario’s Kawartha Lakes made the list as the only city with more than 1% of all homes on sale for less than $200,000, while Cape Breton in Nova Scotia offers the highest share (44%) of homes priced below that amount.
“The existence of these regional pockets of affordability for under $200,000, regardless if they’re not in the swankiest parts of the country, is a glimmer of hope for homebuyers with a set spending limit,” Alexandra Ciuntu (pictured top) , who authored the report, told Canadian Mortgage Professional.
The fact that the median home price had finally started to slow across the country was another positive sign, she said, possibly indicating the beginning of a cooling-off period after months of intensity.
Still, Ciuntu emphasized that just 12 of the 50 most expensive large cities having any availability under $200,000 “speaks volumes” on the shift in what affordability currently means to buyers.
Read next: Canada house prices: How far could they fall?
“Those set on Canada’s largest urban hubs, or simply unable to take their search to the Prairies or Atlantic Canada, already know what they’re up against when it comes to house prices,” she said. “Their fear is not knowing how much… those costs [will] rise.
“Whether the bubble will burst or not, it’s impossible to turn back the clock on home prices in Canada’s most coveted cities.”
Indeed, while Toronto and Vancouver are often pilloried as far and away the most unaffordable cities in Canada, Ciuntu said the report showed that affordability appeared tight across the entire country.
“One would expect it almost impossible to find affordable homes for sale in major hubs like Toronto or Vancouver. But such listings are actually difficult to find in all of Canada’s 50 largest, most expensive cities – not even tiny homes, condos, or fixer-uppers that would require extra cost and care,” she said.
Another striking finding from Point2’s analysis was the prominence of affordable manufactured or mobile homes below $200,000 – a trend that Ciuntu said hinted at the important role those options could play in helping Canadians find a home they can afford.
“This goes to show that the future of ‘affordability’ as we used to know it might lie in these alternative housing options,” she said.

Copyright © 1996-2022 Key Media, Inc.

Cooling-off legislation: What impact will it have on BC market?

Fergal McAlinden
other

The new rule will allow buyers to back out of a purchase within a designated period

 Amid the furore over rising interest rates and a sales slowdown in recent weeks, one story that may have crept under the radar of housing market observers was British Columbia’s provincial government pushing ahead with plans for a cooling-off period in the purchasing process.

Bill 12 passed through the BC legislature at the end of April, amending the Property Law Act to allow would-be buyers to back out of a deal during a limited time period.

Some clarity was shed on the move last week when the province’s Financial Services Authority recommended that the cooling-off period last three business days while also advising that buyers not be allowed to waive the period for backing out (with exceptions including court-ordered sales or auctions).

The report also said sellers should be allowed reasonable access for a property inspection during that three-day period, with a “modest” termination fee of 0.1-0.5% of the home price recommended for buyers who change their mind on a deal.

In BC, reaction to the measure has been decidedly mixed. Provincial finance minister Selina Robinson described the bill as a consumer protection issue, telling the legislature that up to 80% of offers in the province’s housing market were being made without conditions – something she said was a “tremendous risk” to bidders.

Others have said that the bill will do little to address the number-one obstacle facing BC homebuyers in recent times: skyrocketing house prices, which have continued to soar even as sales activity slows – particularly in Vancouver.

Read next: Canada house prices: How far could they fall?

The MLS home price index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver surged over $1.37 million in April, an 18.9% increase over the same time last year, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

That spike arrived as sales plummeted by 34% in the region in April compared with the same month in 2021 – a trend that was mirrored across the province, with a similar decrease occurring provincewide according to the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA).

The average price of a property across the province rose 12.9% between Aprils 2021 and 2022, from $943,765 to $1.065 million.

“I feel like [the cooling-off period] is not really addressing our affordability crisis that we’re having in BC,” Kathy Lien (pictured top), a Burnaby-based senior mortgage advisor with Peak Mortgage, told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “I feel like prices are still going to stay high regardless of this.”

That’s because while buyers will technically be competing on the same playing field with no subject-free offers, more of an emphasis will be placed on price, she said. “When a seller looks at an offer, they’re going to see that they’re all subject to financing or inspections,” she explained.

“So now they’re just going to look at which is the higher [bid]. So, some people get the feeling that it might still increase prices, this cooling-off period.”  

The measure could be helpful to buyers – especially those purchasing for the first time, many of whom have been dissuaded from entering the current market because they aren’t willing to go in subject-free against those making cash offers or putting forward large down payments, Lien said.

It could also give buyers the chance to do due diligence when it comes to homebuying – securing financing, conducting appraisals and inspections, and requesting strata documents.

Read next: Mortgage market feels the impact of rising rates

“At the same time… sellers might have buyers who are just going to put in an offer and then walk away without any kind of repercussions. And then the sellers will have to start all over again,” Lien added.

The introduction of that new cooling-off rule is expected to take place some time this summer, which would place it squarely in the middle of a market whose wheels have already been slowing for several weeks.

Interest rates have been on the rise throughout the year to date, with the Bank of Canada expected to introduce further significant hikes to its trendsetting benchmark rate in its forthcoming summer announcements.

That rising-rate environment has given many prospective buyers pause for thought on entering the housing market, Lien said, although there’s still robust activity around certain property types.

“Right now there’s definitely a lot of people doing a wait-and-see kind of approach because of interest rates that are going up, and they’re perceiving that potentially it’s going to affect prices,” she said.

“I feel like especially… detached homes are getting a lot fewer offers and a lot fewer showings, but the stuff that’s under $1 million – the condos and townhouses – they’re still pretty active.”

Copyright © 1996-2022 Key Media, Inc.

Burnaby office building sells for $112.5 million

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

Concert’s first acquisition in Brentwood seen as the highest price paid for a B.C. office property in the past two years
1795 Willingdon Avenue, Burnaby: future development site with stable income in place. | Concert CREC
Metro Vancouver’s office market is “the strongest in Canada,” according to a new national survey, and a recent Burnaby purchase underlines the demand.
Concert’s CREC Commercial Fund LP has purchased a fully leased, three-story office building in the Brentwood neighbourhood of Burnaby. The 160,654 square foot complex sold for $112.5 million, considered the highest price paid for a regional office property in the past year.
The sale of the building, which is fully leased to B.C.’s Provincial Health Services Authority (PHSA), was announced May 30.  
The building, at 1795 Willingdon Avenue, is nestled within a hub of new residential and commercial developments, including The Amazing Brentwood – one of British Columbia’s largest mixed-use retail and resident developments.
“This is Concert’s first acquisition in the Brentwood neighbourhood and we’re excited to be part of this rapidly growing community as we further expand our commercial portfolio in B.C.,” said David Podmore, Concert’s president & CEO.  
The property sits on a 2.58-acre lot within the core area of the Brentwood Town Centre Development Plan, which identifies the site for high-density, mixed-use development consisting of residential and commercial uses.
The Brentwood Town Centre Skytrain Station is located two blocks south of the property.
“We’re very pleased to acquire this premium office property in one of the fastest growing areas of B.C. With a long-term, stable, government tenant in PHSA, this acquisition will contribute stable returns to both our portfolio and to our pension fund and institutional investors,” says Andrew Tong, Concert’s chief investment officer and managing director, CREC Commercial Fund LP.
“Vancouver’s office market is the strongest in Canada at present,” according to a national survey of commercial real estate released May 30 by Re/Max Commercial.
Metro Vancouver vacancy rates are trending down, sitting at 9.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 10 per cent during the same period in 2021, Re/Max found, noting that suburban markets continue to thrive.
Prior to the Brentwood sale, the highest prices paid for an office property in Metro Vancouver since January 2021 was $103 million for a new 120,000-square-foot building at 1077 Great Northern Way in March 2021, and the $93 million paid for the 61,300-square-foot 815 Hornby Street tower in May of 2021, according to a mid-2021 survey by Avison Young. Like the Brentwood purchase, the Hornby Street property is considered a land development play. 

© 2022 Western Investor

Residential rents skyrocket as economy reopens, vacancies drop

Peter Mitham
Western Investor

Rent controls prompt developers to hike rents on new builds

 Residential rents are rising to new heights in downtown Vancouver as developers hedge against future limits with higher rents on new units. Photo Dan Toulgoet

Developers are achieving above-average rents on new projects in Metro Vancouver, and an ongoing lack of new supply as the economy reopens will make affordability even worse.

“We have about 78,000 units in the planning process in Metro Vancouver,” Michael Ferreira, principal with Zonda Urban, told the Urban Development Institute, Pacific Region in an update on the housing market on May 26. “This just reflects how few projects are getting approved and allowed to get under construction at any given time, and this is something that I think we really need to work on for the rental market if we want to increase the supply, if we want to address some of the affordability issues.”

Rents for purpose-built highrise projects in downtown Vancouver are now cresting $6 a square foot, well above the regional average of $3.78 a square foot for the class, while woodframe rental units are averaging $2.94 a square foot.

“Part of this is being driven by demand for rental product, the shortage of supply,” he said. “[But] let’s not kid ourselves, part of it is being driven by the rent control policies that our provincial government introduced a couple of years ago.”

In 2018, the province limited the annual allowable rent increases to the provincial inflation rate rather than inflation plus 2 per cent. Rent increases were then frozen during the pandemic, with this year’s increase limited to 1.5 per cent.

This has prompted developers to seek higher rents when a project completes as a hedge against subsequent limits.

“Developers who are bringing in new product, they’re protecting themselves against not being able to increase rents by more than the cost of inflation,” Ferreira explained. “They’re setting a bar that’s higher, probably, than what the market is telling them they can achieve, sacrificing some absorptions, but at least they know they’re starting at a higher level.”

But this also sets a higher bar for other projects, resulting in higher rents across the market.

With the provincial inflation rate now running at 4 per cent and accelerating, speculation is focusing on what further action the province might take to keep rent increases for 2023 in check.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they limit the increase,” Ferreira said.

The province’s housing ministry said it is “continuously reviewing policy options to respond and support British Columbians” but did not offer clues as to any steps it make take to address current inflationary pressures when it sets the annual allowable rent increase for 2023 later this year.

Reopening as restrictions designed to curb COVID-19 are also having an impact on rents, with the return of in-person learning and the return of the service sector having the most significant effects.

“In January of 2021, we had UBC vacancy rate at about 30 per cent. It’s now under 1 [per cent],” Ferreira said. “It’s really bounced back.”

Similarly, the growth and maturation of the tech sector is also playing a role.

“We’re not just seeing the coders being attracted to the market, we’re seeing more senior-level executives being brought into the market,” Ferreira said. “These aren’t $60,000, $70,000 tech workers. These are $150,000, $200,000 and above, and some of them are getting living allowances. … So they’re making some decent cash, and for them $5.50 a foot is not that much.”

According to Ryan Berlin, senior economist at real estate marketing firm Rennie, many incoming workers stack up Vancouver rents against home ownership costs. This is even more true if their visa status classifies them as foreign nationals, who face purchase restrictions.

An executive making $250,000 a year could reasonably expect to spend $75,000 on housing, given a gross debt to service ratio of 30%. That works out to a monthly rent in the range of $6,000, or $6 a square foot for 1,000 square feet.

“While that may seem high to us, and it’s shocking because we haven’t seen prices that high (we only hear of those rents in San Francisco and Silicon Valley and other places), I don’t think it’s going to change,” Ferreira said. “I think it’s just going to spread out into other markets as well.”

© 2022 Western Investor

Westbrooke at Willoughby brings a third phase to the Township of Langley

Livabl Staff
Livabl

Westbrooke at WIlloughby is returning with its third phase and construction is already underway. Beginning in 2018, this Foxridge Homes by Qualico development in the Township of Langley has sold out its previous two phases, and will contain at least eight phases before completion. Foxridge has experienced and overcome many challenges during this pre- and post-pandemic build, from product shortages to invasive plant species, all while creating a successful and popular development.

Livabl spoke with Steve Kim, the development coordinator for Qualico Communities and Nicolas Bell, the project manager for Foxridge Homes about Westbrooke at Willoughby and its progression.

This is a multi-year phased project with eight parts, and you’re currently on phase 3 – how has it been progressing?
Qualico started Westbrooke at Willoughby with phase 1 by securing the school and park site, and installed the required off-site servicing, which opened up development in the area. Since then, we’ve snowballed our scale to take advantage of the now-completed prerequisites and built on the success we’ve experienced in this neighbourhood. As such, we have eight phases but there may be more to come.

Of course, the project has not been without its challenges given every industry is at maximum capacity – from municipal staff to consultants and contractors. On top of that, the pandemic that forced us to adapt quickly to ever-changing conditions: Staff shortages, supply chain crises, volatile cost fluctuations and more.
The delays have meant our single-family builder, Foxridge, has not been able to keep up with the pent-up demand in the market. Sales have been strong and we’re working as hard as we can to keep adding new supply to the existing inventory.

You began this project in 2018, which means you’ve experienced construction in a pre- and post-pandemic world. What types of challenges have you faced and how were you able to overcome them?
A large project like our Westbrooke subdivision comes with challenges. Our primary focus was getting ready for the implementation of the BC Energy Step Code and ensuring we had a group of qualified trades and subcontractors on board that were prepared to work through this project with us.

Like most, March 2020 and the start of the pandemic shutdowns dramatically shifted our priorities. It forced us to re-evaluate construction processes, scheduling, and supply chain sources, all while also ensuring our employees, trade and subcontractors were provided with the accommodations and resources needed to ensure their safety under these new working conditions. Patience became a common theme throughout our sites, as we all worked hard to fulfill our commitments.

Though the restrictions have been relaxed recently, we’re still having to work through various delays related to product shortages, staffing, manufacturing delays and product cancellations.

However, due to the effort and dedication of our trades and employees we’ve been able to successfully complete 130 homes with 34 more currently under construction. We are very excited to be breaking ground on our new show home and to start construction on the next 88 homes in phase 3.

What lessons did you take away from the initial phases? Are there new strategies that you are implementing for upcoming phases because of this?

In the process of land development, there are various factors and variables that can impact the timing and success of a project. Some of these are related to project management, such as meticulously keeping track of our target milestones and responding quickly to delays in our critical path.

Other factors are related to the land itself — small things that can prove detrimental to a project timeline. For example, a wetland was discovered late into the approvals process for one of our phases, which required an entirely new site layout to accommodate  the setbacks. Needless to say, we have become more diligent in assessing for wetlands in our future phases.

In another instance, we found Japanese knotweed on our site, which can grow through concrete foundations. Depending on the amount of knotweed, removal can be incredibly costly if it’s found too late and can take two years to completely eradicate. We have now implemented a knotweed remediation program and we perform assessments at due diligence.

How did the pocket park come together? What elements will it contain?
In the Yorkson Neighbourhood Plan, the Township of Langley envisioned a “pocket park,” which is an approximately one-acre open grassed area that is attached to a street greenway. It also calls for an “ecological greenway,” which Qualico has constructed between our phase 1 and phase 3.

Since the plan indicated a pocket park should be located near the Westbrooke project, Qualico helped secure and construct the park where the ecological greenway meets 206 Street, just south of our phase 2 homes.

The park will include a multi-use pathway, playground, and recreational space, as well as a wildlife corridor that tunnels underneath 206 Street. The park has great pedestrian access given it connects to the ecological greenway to the west, and an arterial road to the east.

What kind of buyer are you hoping to attract into this new phase?
From our previous two phases, it was evident that our Westbrooke project was attracting young families, which makes sense given it’s within walking distance to a brand-new elementary school, retail amenities at Willoughby Town Centre, and several green spaces such as the pocket park and ecological greenway.

The neighbourhood park, adjacent to the elementary school, is currently in construction. Moreover, the homes provide more indoor and outdoor space for growing families at a more reasonable price point in comparison to Vancouver.

To learn more about Westbrooke at Willoughby, visit foxridgehomesbc.com.

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

65-acre farm near Armstrong sells for $1.76 million

Colliers International Unique Properties
Western Investor

Former cattle and hay farm on Highway 97A, just outside of Armstrong, B.C., includes a country home and several outbuildings. Zoning allows for a second residence.

Property type: Farm

Location: 3598 Highway 97A, Armstrong, B.C.

Farm size: 65 acres

Zoning: A2 (allows second residence)

Sale price: $1.76 million

Brokerage: Colliers International, Unique Properties, Vancouver

Broker: Alan Johnson

© 2022 Western Investor