Archive for September, 2022

Bank of Canada hikes interest rates by another 75 basis points

Wednesday, September 7th, 2022

Bank of Canada Announces Fifth but Not Final Interest Rate Increase for 2022

Patti Cosgarea
other

 The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced its fifth interest rate increase of the year, raising rates by another 75 basis points. This follows its July announcement where the Bank announced an interest rate hike of 1 percentage point, the largest interest rate increase since August 1998. BoC also cautioned that interest rates will continue to rise in its most recent announcement stating: “Given the outlook for inflation, the Governing Council still judges that the policy interest rate will need to rise further. Quantitative tightening is complementing increases in the policy rate.”

What to Expect When Qualifying for a Mortgage

The rate hike means that the prime lending rate at all financial institutions will increase by 75 basis points. Following the previous interest rate announcement, most prospective fixed-rate borrowers faced stress tests with rates around 7% and 6% for variable-rate borrowers. 

  • Read: How to Quickly Build Your Credit Score Before Applying for a Mortgage in Canada

This interest rate announcement further impacts the rate borrowers will be tested against. Financial experts suggest that Canadians shopping for a mortgage should weigh all their options and remember that borrowers will often qualify for more if they choose a variable rate instead of a fixed rate. 

 

The Impact on Canadian Real Estate

BoC’s policy rate is now at 3.25% and experts are predicting that future increases will be smaller. Throughout this year, we’ve seen the market shift from what was primarily a seller’s market throughout the peak of the pandemic to many cities being in more balanced or buyers-market territory. “Rising interest rates put downward pressure on real estate markets. Following this rate increase announcement, we may see more cities transition to buyer’s markets” explains Lauren Haw, CEO and Broker of Record of Zoocasa. This means that buyers may have more negotiating power during their home search. If you’re planning to enter the market this fall, work with a local real estate agent to understand which markets will favour you in your home-buying journey.

  • Read: Variable or Fixed-Rate Mortgage? 4 Tips to Help You Decide Which to Choose While Interest Rates are Rising

A Reminder to Homeowners with Existing Variable-Rate Mortgages

Canadians with existing variable-rate mortgages will see their rate rise in line with this announcement and should work with their mortgage specialist to plan for further rate increases. If you’re a homeowner with a variable-rate mortgage, you can use our free mortgage calculator to determine what your new monthly payments will be. Some lenders offer fixed payments with variable-rate mortgages which can be a great option to help homeowners budget as interest rates continue to rise. If you already have a variable-rate mortgage, speak to your mortgage broker to learn if you can switch to fixed payments mid-term.

 

© 2015 – 2022 Zoocasa Realty Inc.

Residential property sales in Metro Vancouver

Wednesday, September 7th, 2022

Metro Vancouvers housing market sees fewer home buyers and sellers in August

REBGV Staff
REBGV

 Metro Vancouver’s housing market is experiencing a quieter summer season marked by reduced sale and listing activity.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,870 in August 2022, a 40.7 per cent decrease from the 3,152 sales recorded in August 2021, and a 0.9 per cent decrease from the 1,887 homes sold in July 2022.

Last month’s sales were 29.2 per cent below the 10-year August sales average.

“With inflationary pressure and interest rates on the rise, home buyer and seller activity shifted below our long-term seasonal averages this summer. This shift in market conditions caused prices to edge down over the past four months.”

Andrew Lis, REBGV Director, economics and data analytics

There were 3,328 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in August 2022. This represents a 17.5 per cent decrease compared to the 4,032 homes listed in August 2021 and a 16 per cent decrease compared to July 2022 when 3,960 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,662, a 7.3 per cent increase compared to August 2021 (9,005) and a 6.1 per cent decrease compared to July 2022 (10,288).

“Home buyers and sellers are taking more time to assess what this changing landscape means for their housing needs,” Lis said. “Preparation is critical in today’s market. Work with your Realtor to assess what today’s home prices, financing options, and other considerations mean for you.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2022 is 19.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.2 per cent for detached homes, 25.3 per cent for townhomes, and 24.8 per cent for apartments.

Sales-to-active listings ratio – August 2022

Detached homes

12.2%

Townhomes

25.3%

Condominiums

24.8%

Total 19.4%

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,180,500. This represents a 7.4 per cent increase over August 2021 and a 2.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

Sales of detached homes in August 2022 reached 517, a 45.3 per cent decrease from the 945 detached sales recorded in August 2021. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,954,100. This represents a 7.9 per cent increase from August 2021 and a 2.3 per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

Sales of apartment homes reached 998 in August 2022, a 38.8 per cent decrease compared to the 1,631 sales in August 2021. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $740,100. This represents an 8.7 per cent increase from August 2021 and a two per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

Attached home sales in August 2022 totalled 355, a 38.4 per cent decrease compared to the 576 sales in August 2021. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,069,100. This represents a 12.7 per cent increase from August 2021 and a 2.5 per cent decrease compared to July 2022.

 

©’REBGV’ is a registered trademark.

The government of Canada provide $1.4B loan for Squamish Nation’s Senakw project

Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

Feds announce $1.4 billion loan for Squamish Nation’s Senakw project

Dan Fumano
The Vancouver Sun

The Sen̓áḵw project will provide rental homes for both Squamish Nation members as well as non-Indigenous residents.
Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Úxwumixw Council Chairperson Khelsilem chats with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at an announcement for Squamish Nation’s Sen̓áḵw development in Kitsilano on Tuesday, Sept. 6. The federal government announced a $1.4 billion low-interest construction loan for the project. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG
The government of Canada will help finance the Squamish First Nation’s Sen̓áḵw development in Kitsilano by providing a $1.4 billion low-interest construction loan.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the loan Tuesday morning at a news conference hosted by Squamish Nation on the site of the planned project.
“This project is the largest First Nations economic partnership in Canadian history. Initiatives like these are reconciliation in action,” Trudeau said. “It’s part of our vision for a better future for everyone.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces a $1.4 billion low-interest construction loan for Squamish Nation’s Sen̓áḵw project on Tuesday, Sept. 6. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG
The Sen̓áḵw project is slated to be a high-density development with 6,000 homes in 11 towers, built on a four-hectare patch — equivalent to about four city blocks — of reserve land around the south end of the Burrard Bridge. The loan announced Tuesday will finance the construction of the first two of four planned phases of the project, about 3,000 homes.
The low-interest loan will be the largest loan so far provided through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s rental construction financing program, which was launched in 2017 to support rental construction across Canada with a target of more than 71,000 new rental homes.

The Squamish Nation reclaimed the property, a small piece of what was a longtime First Nations community in the area, in 2003 after a long legal battle. Sen̓áḵw is being developed by the Squamish First Nation in partnership with Westbank, one of Vancouver’s biggest real-estate development firms, and initial work on clearing the site began last month.
The Sen̓áḵw project has been publicly praised by municipal, provincial and now federal leaders, as well as many Vancouverites who welcome the large number of transit-oriented rental homes close to downtown. But some residents, including in the low-density Kits Point neighbourhood next to Sen̓áḵw, have raised concerns about the size and scale of the development, which will include towers of up to 59 storeys.

Asked how he would respond to those concerns and whether residents of Canada’s big urban centres should expect more similar high-density developments in the future, Trudeau said he has heard from many Vancouverites affected by housing unaffordability.
“This investment, this creation of thousands upon thousands of new affordable rental units — a number of them low-income rental units — is going to make a huge difference in the lives of thousands of families.
“That will be a big step forward for Vancouver,” Trudeau said. “And I know that this is a good thing for the city, the province, and for the country.”

Sḵwx̱wú7mesh Úxwumixw Council Chairperson Khelsilem speaks during a press conference for Squamish Nation’s Sen̓áḵw project. Photo by NICK PROCAYLO /PNG
The affordability criteria for the CMHC’s rental construction financing initiative states that 20 per cent of a development’s units must have below-market rents. Of the 6,000 rental homes at Sen̓áḵw, the Squamish Nation is planning for 1,200 units — or 20 per cent — to have below-market rents.

Khelsilem, chair of the Squamish Nation council, began his remarks by acknowledging the Squamish families who lived on the site and were forcibly evicted in the early 20th century when the village was burnt down.
Khelsilem said that when the entity today known as the Squamish Nation formed in 1923 out of the amalgamation of 16 different bands, they combined their financial accounts together, and “all their financial wealth that had been gathered up to that point, today it would have been worth approximately $1.2 million.”
The Sen̓áḵw project is expected to generate more than $10 billion for future generations of the Squamish Nation, Khelsilem said. “Wealth that we will generate from our lands to support the aspirations, the dreams, the hopes of Squamish people … The hope that I think every culture has, that the next generation will have a better life than the one we did.”

© 2022 Vancouver Sun

Toronto housing segment saw a sharp 15% month-over-month increase in sales in August

Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

A sharp-about face in the Toronto market

Ephraim Vecina
other

The region continues to see a resurgence in housing market activity, seemingly undeterred by price spikes
After several months of considerable market deceleration, the Toronto housing segment saw a sharp 15% month-over-month increase in sales in August, totalling 5,627 transactions completed through the region’s MLS system.
Sales accounted for the larger share of new listings compared to the previous three months, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
This is despite the August figure representing a year-over-year decline of 34.2%, which TRREB said was a lower annual drop compared to the four months prior.
“If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead,” the TRREB said in its latest report. “On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 11% sequentially.”
Read more: Canada home sales feel impact of rate hikes
The MLS home price index in Toronto went up by 8.9% in August, while the average selling price across all residential asset classes ticked up by 0.9% to more than $1.079 million.
This might be a troubling direction for the region’s home owners, TRREB officials said.
“While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs,” said Kevin Crigger, president of TRREB. “There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market.”
“Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically.”

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Inflation in Canada has come down a little, but remains far too high | Tiff Macklem

Tuesday, September 6th, 2022

Bank of Canada set for fifth interest rate rise

Nojoud Al Mallees
other

Inflation is still running hot

 Inflation appears to have peaked but it’s still running hot and a supersized rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week is widely expected.

Some economists think Wednesday’s hike could be the last for a while.

“We think that by the time October comes around, we might be in a good enough position for the bank to take a pause and look at how the economy is reacting,” said Karyne Charbonneau, CIBC’s executive director of economics.

The September rate call comes at a crucial time for Canada’s economy.

As gas prices fell, the year-over-year inflation rate sat at 7.6% in July, down from 8.1% in June. Second-quarter GDP grew compared with the first three months of the year, though that slowed toward the end of the period and a preliminary estimate suggests a contraction in July. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is holding at a historic low.

Despite the drop in the inflation rate, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in an Aug. 16 op-ed that nearly 40-year high inflation was still a major concern.

“Inflation in Canada has come down a little, but it remains far too high,” Macklem wrote. “We know our job is not done yet – it won’t be done until inflation gets back to the 2% target.”

Some of Canada’s major banks are forecasting the central bank will raise the key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, bringing it to 3.25%.

In a closely watched speech last week, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a stark message on its own rate hike cycle, saying the Fed will likely impose more large interest rate hikes in coming months. His message that the US central bank will stay aggressive on interest rates had some observers speculating that the Bank of Canada hike on Sept. 7 could even be a full percentage point.

The bank hiked its key rate in July by a full percentage point – the largest single rate increase since August 1998 after a series of hikes that began in March. Previously, the rate had been at 0.25% where it sat since it was slashed to near-zero early in the pandemic.

Higher interest rates feed into higher lending rates across the economy, making it more expensive for Canadians and businesses to borrow money. The central bank is hoping that by making the cost of debt more expensive, spending in the economy will slow and inflation will cool.

However, senior economist David Macdonald at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives warns the rapid pace of the hikes could have serious repercussions because of the high level of business and household debt in the economy.

In his latest analysis, Macdonald said private sector debt amounts to 225% of the country’s gross domestic product. By comparison, the last time the bank raised interest rates this rapidly was in 1995, when private sector debt stood at 142% of GDP.

That higher level of debt, he says, will make it harder to achieve the bank’s desired “soft landing,” where interest rate hikes bring inflation down without triggering a recession.

“What I really wanted to bring out in this analysis was the fact that private sector debt is much higher today than it was in the 1980s and 1990s and previous times that we’ve seen this kind of rapid rate increase,” said Macdonald. “And why this matters, of course, is that it’s not just the interest rate that matters, the interest rate is charged on something. It’s charged on private sector debt.”

Macdonald has been calling for alternative solutions to cool inflation using federal government rather than central bank policy.

Some of his recommendations include changing mortgage underwriting rules for investors to cool housing prices and expanding the new excess corporate profits tax beyond financial institutions.

However, Christopher Ragan, McGill University’s Max Bell School of Public Policy, said the central bank is best-suited to take on the responsibility of maintaining low interest rates.

“There’s very, very good reasons why we have operationally independent central bank trying to target inflation rather than governments, because governments in the past have done a very poor job at that,” he said.

Ragan said the independence of the Bank of Canada allows it to act forcefully in the face of inflation, while any government intervention would be highly political. Nevertheless, Ragan says bringing inflation down with interest rate hikes is painful.

“That’s actually why it’s so important to never let inflation get high in the first place,” said Ragan. “Because it’s not just that high inflation is bad, it’s that reducing high inflation back down to low inflation hurts a lot.”

 

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Heavily taxing foreign buyers wishing to purchase property in Canada

Monday, September 5th, 2022

What You Need to Know about the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians (Foreign Buyers Ban)

CREA Staff
other

In the last federal election campaign, three of the main political parties made commitments related to limiting or heavily taxing foreign buyers wishing to purchase property in Canada. While commitments varied slightly, the policy intent was similar – to temporarily limit or disincentivize foreign buyers in order to prioritize domestic ones, and to hopefully tamp down increasing home prices.

The experience with British Columbia’s Foreign Buyer Tax (implemented in August 2016) and the Speculation and Vacancy Tax (SVT) (introduced in the province’s ‘Budget 2018’), provides some indication on the impact of a ban on foreign buyers. Their experience suggests such measures have a small and often temporary effect on real estate markets, housing availability and affordability. The effects are largely isolated to large metropolitan markets, with no statistically significant impact in smaller communities.

On June 23, 2022, Parliament passed the Prohibition on the purchase of residential property by non-Canadians Act. Coming into force January 1, 2023, this Act:

  • Does not apply to Canadian citizens and permanent residents.
  • Applies to non-Canadians directly or indirectly purchasing residential property in Canada for a period of two years.
  • Applies to residential property, including detached houses or similar buildings of one to three dwelling units, as well as parts of buildings such as semi-detached houses, condominium units, or other similar premises.
  • Applies to direct or indirect purchases of residential property, including purchases made through corporations, trusts or other legal entities.
  • Establishes penalties for non-compliance applicable to non-Canadians, as well as any person or entity knowingly assisting a non-Canadian in violating the prohibition.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and REALTORS® have been strong advocates for governments at all levels to enact measures that will dramatically increase housing supply. While this measure may have modest impact on supply, we believe the federal government should proceed with caution.

We recently made the following recommendations to the government as part of a consultation process:

  1. It should include a CUSMA exemption, treating property owners from the U.S. and Mexico in a similar fashion to Canadians to avoid a reciprocal response from our trading partners that could harm Canadians.
  2. It should consider exempting purchase of established dwellings for redevelopment, providing the redevelopment genuinely increases housing stock, the project is completed within a specified time of the date of approval, and the existing dwelling is not rented out prior to demolition and redevelopment. This would include purchase of vacant land for residential dwelling development, subject to the development being completed and evidence of the project’s completion being submitted within a specified time of the date of approval.
  3. It should consider existing measures at the provincial and municipal level when setting eligibility criteria, rates, and information disclosure requirements.
  4. It should be re-evaluated once the impact of similar policies (such as Underused Housing Tax (UHT)) as well as evolving economic conditions can be reviewed.
  5. It should take into consideration the compliance burden of implementation.
  6. It should recognize that housing needs vary across provinces and a quota system should be considered to provide provinces some authority to tailor the ban as per their housing market requirements.

CREA is currently working with government, provincial associations and other stakeholders to minimize the impacts of the new rules on the businesses of REALTOR® members, and any related impact on an already slowing housing market.

Please keep in mind the current January 1, 2023 coming into force date. CREA interprets this to mean should a non-Canadian enter into an agreement to purchase a relevant property on December 31, 2022, or sooner, the prohibition would not apply to that transaction. The language used in the Act suggests the prohibition applies to agreements of purchase and sale (APS) entered into after the January 1, 2023, coming into force date.

The Government has not yet released regulations, which typically clarify and define terms within the Act. CREA’s understanding and interpretation of this legislation may change upon reviewing the upcoming regulations. The legislation may be complicated to interpret, so it’s always a good idea to consult a lawyer for advice or guidance.

To read CREA’s full submission, click here. This document is currently only available in English.

© 2022 CREA

Toronto home sales year-over-year dip of 34.2%, up 15% from July | TRREB

Friday, September 2nd, 2022

GTA Home Sales Increase in August Despite 34% Year-Over-Year Decline

Daniel Crook
other

 Home sales in the Toronto Region have seen a year-over-year dip of 34.2%, with 5,627 sales reported in the month of August, according to TRREB (Toronto Region Real Estate Board). While the decline is significant versus last year, August saw a bit of a rebound in volume versus earlier in the summer.. August also saw a greater share of new listings compared to the previous three months, up almost 15% from July. There is a possibility we could see some support for selling prices in the months ahead if this trend were to continue.

According to TRREB, the MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9% on a year-over-year basis and the average selling price for all home types was up by 0.9% to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. These results would suggest that a greater share of more expensive home types were sold this past August.

Data suggests expensive homes were sold more often in August

Detached home sales saw an 18% jump over last month, the highest amount of growth among all property types in the TRREB region, with 2,595 sales, and an average price of $1,379,700, up 1% from last month, the only property type to increase in average price over July. York and Durham saw the highest number of detached homes sold, with 568 and 542 respectively. 

Condo apartments continue to be the most affordable option with an average price of $711,321, down 1% from last month’s average of $719,273. The demand has also increased, with 1,028 sales, up 7% from July. 159 semi-detached homes have been sold at an average price of $1,127,429, with sales down 10% from last month and the price down 11%. Condo townhouses saw 121 sales, down 13%, at an average price of $818,935, down 4%.

READ: The Most Expensive and Affordable Homes Sold in August in Toronto and the GTA 

The impact of rising interest rates

Climbing interest rates, inflation and fluctuations in prices have left many would be buyers and sellers on the sidelines this Spring & Summer. Detached homes and semi-detached homes have both seen a 3% dip in prices from 2021, with average prices coming in at $1,379,700 and $998,490 respectively. Those on the property hunt will have generally found that prices in recent months are below the highs of early 2022 but for the first time this year have also shown signs of dipping past last year’s highs.  With a pending Bank of Canada rate hike expected this September; the increased borrowing costs for first time home buyers and mortgage renewals has left many speculating about the effect on prices for the upcoming Fall market.

TRREB President, Kevin Crigger, said: “There is room for the federal government to provide greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically.”

READ: A Guide to the Real Estate Cycle for Buyers & Sellers

Cities with below average prices 

Toronto and the GTA continue to grow in population and there are many cities and regions with prices below the average, leading to a high demand and higher volume of sales. When comparing the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), we examined some of the more in-demand areas and whether they are favouring sellers or buyers at this time; an SNLR of greater than 60% favours sellers and below 40% favours buyers, as a general rule.

Brock

Durham cities continue to be the most affordable in the TRREB region. Brock has some of the lowest average prices in the area, with the average home costing $748,071, just over $330,000 less than the region as a whole. It saw 36 new listings and 14 sales in August, with an SNLR of 51.6%.

Georgina

Georgina stands out as one of the most affordable areas in York, with the average home costing just $840,000. There were 65 sales last month, with 89 new listings, and an SNLR of 53%, signalling a balanced market in the area.

Pickering

Pickering is another example of the greater affordability of homes in Durham. The cost of the average home in the area is $990,008 and saw 95 sales last month, with 170 new listings coming to the market, giving buyers more options. The SNLR sits at 60.3%, teetering right on the edge of a balanced market.

Essa 

Simcoe County is slightly more affordable than Toronto, with the average home costing $928,718, and Essa’s cost is even lower at $816,272. There were 29 sales and 66 newly listed homes in August in Essa, with an SNLR of 52.9%.

 

© 2015 – 2022 Zoocasa Realty Inc.

Toronto home sales year-over-year dip of 34.2%, up 15% from July | TRREB

Friday, September 2nd, 2022

GTA Home Sales Increase in August Despite 34% Year-Over-Year Decline

Daniel Crook
other

Nearly 30 per cent below the 10-year August average were last month sales

Friday, September 2nd, 2022

Vancouver home sales down 40% from last year, nearly 1% since July: board

Canadian Press
The Vancouver Sun

The board says sales for the month amounted to 3,152 and came amid a quieter summer season marked by reduced buying and listing activity.

A real estate sign is pictured in Vancouver, B.C., Tuesday, June, 12, 2018. Photo by JONATHAN HAYWARD /THE CANADIAN PRESS

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says last month’s home sales plunged roughly 40 per cent since August 2021, but were almost unchanged from this past July.

The board says sales for the month amounted to 1,870 and came amid a quieter summer season marked by reduced buying and listing activity.

Last month’s sales were nearly 30 per cent below the 10-year August average.

Sales of detached homes saw the most dramatic year-over-year drop at 45 per cent with apartments trailing at 39 per cent and attached homes at 38 per cent.

The composite benchmark price reached more than $1.1 million, a seven per cent increase over August 2021 and a two per cent drop compared to July 2022.

Andrew Lis, the board’s director of economics and data analytics, attributed many of the figures to the high cost of living.

“With inflationary pressure and interest rates on the rise, homebuyer and seller activity shifted below our long-term seasonal averages this summer,” he said, in a news release.

“This shift in market conditions caused prices to edge down over the past four months.”

© 2022 Vancouver Sun

Canada’s home price drop 2.8% in August compared the month before to reach CA$1.12M by TRREB

Friday, September 2nd, 2022

Toronto home prices in historic correction

Ari Altstedter
other

Higher interest rates deliver a huge blow
Toronto home prices fell for a fifth straight month, the longest skid since 2017, as the property market adjusts to sharply higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada.
The benchmark price for a home in Canada’s largest city dropped 2.8% in August compared with the month before to reach CA$1.12 million, according to data released Friday by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
That brings the total price decline to nearly 16% since March — the biggest five-month drop since the measure started being tracked in 2005.
In March, the central bank began raising its benchmark interest rate from an emergency low of 0.25% to rein in the highest inflation since the 1980s. It’s now 2.5%, representing one of the most aggressive rate-hiking campaigns in decades.
While inflation remains stubbornly elevated, one immediate effect of higher rates was to cut the borrowing capacity of most prospective home buyers. That forced sellers to drop prices quickly to find a level where they could get a bid.
Variable mortgage rates at Royal Bank of Canada, the country’s largest bank, have risen to 4.5%. Borrowers who want to lock in their rate for five years pay more than 5.5%.
Still, the monthly data brought some hints that the market slide may be easing. Transactions were up 11% in August from the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The ratio of sales to new listings rose, generally a sign that demand is starting to balance out supply, the real estate board said.
Average selling prices were actually up 2.1% in August compared with the month before, though the real estate board said that was likely because larger, pricier homes accounted for a greater share of transactions, a compositional effect that the benchmark price is designed to smooth out.
Real estate buyers will almost certainly have to contend with even higher borrowing costs in the near future. Financial markets are currently betting the Bank of Canada will raise the policy rate by three-quarters of a percentage point next week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Higher rate expectations have prompted a number of economists to predict Canada’s real estate correction is not over, with cities like Toronto, which saw the biggest run-ups during the early part of the pandemic, hit the worst.

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