Suburb population growth spurred by higher home prices, desire for more space: Statistics Canada
Michelle McNally
Livabl
The country’s largest metropolitan areas have reported ongoing urban spread, a phenomenon that could be the result of rising home prices and changing consumer preferences.
In a new Statistics Canada report, the federal department stated that downtowns in Canada’s largest urban centres have been growing rapidly. Meanwhile, urban spread has continued as suburbs located farthest from downtowns reported a faster pace of population growth compared to other suburban areas.
In 2021, three in four Canadians (73.7 per cent) lived in one of Canada’s large urban centres, which is an increase from 73.2 per cent five years ago. In the same year, there were six more census metropolitan areas (CMAs) than five years before, which is an indication of increasing urbanization. A CMA is defined as an urban area with a population of 100,000 people or more. Such regions accounted for most of Canada’s population growth from 2016 to 2021, rising 5.2 per cent.
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The findings from Statistics Canada use new 2021 census data to examine how Canada’s 41 large urban centres have changed since 2016 and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Statistics Canada clarified that a downtown area is located in the core of a CMA. All other areas can be characterized into one of four zones by their proximity to downtown: urban fringe, (less than a 10 minute drive from downtown) near suburb, (10 to 20 minutes from downtown), intermediate suburb (20 to 30 minutes from downtown), and distant suburb (30 minutes or more from downtown).
Larger homes and higher prices driving suburban population growth
The distant suburbs in Canada’s three largest urban centres grew at a faster pace than the urban fringe and suburbs closer to downtown, evidence of ongoing urban spread.
Population increases to the distant suburbs in Toronto (9.4 per cent), Montréal (seven per cent) and Vancouver (9.5 per cent) between 2016 and 2021 surpassed growth of their overall CMAs. In the Vancouver CMA, the distant suburbs grew at the fastest pace from 2016 to 2021. In Toronto, nearly three-quarters of the total population growth in the CMA resulted from distant suburbs.
Map 1: “Urban spread is continuing in the census metropolitan area of Toronto while its downtown is growing more rapidly than before,” Statistics Canada
Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa also witnessed significant urban spread in their intermediate suburbs, which grew 23.4 per cent, 23.3 per cent and 21.4 per cent during the same five-year period.
“The sustained population growth in the intermediate and distant suburbs may be attributable to various factors, including limited space to build new housing close to downtown, the desire of some families to have a larger home or property, the lower cost of housing on the outskirts or wanting to be closer to nature,” explained the report.
In some suburban areas, population growth may have been supported by the work from home movement. In April 2020, 40 per cent of employees worked most of their hours from home, up drastically from four per cent in 2016.
Higher home prices could also be a factor. New home prices were up 11.3 per cent year-over-year nationally in May 2021, the largest increase since November 2006 according to Statistics Canada. New property prices were also 17.8 per cent higher compared to 2016.
“Higher housing prices may have tempted Canadians to move to more distant suburbs, where larger houses could be available at a lower cost than closer to downtown,” said the report.
Downtown populations on the rise in Canada
From 2016 to 2021, Canada’s 42 downtowns grew at over twice the pace (10.9 per cent) compared to the previous five-year period (4.6 per cent) despite a slowdown caused by the pandemic.
In Canada’s largest CMAs, Montréal, Calgary and Toronto were among the fastest-growing downtowns from 2016 to 2021, rising 24.2 per cent, 21 per cent and 16.1 per cent. Vancouver’s downtown population grew 7.4 per cent in the same five-year period.
Map 3: “Distant suburb makes up more than half of Vancouver census metropolitan area’s population growth while its downtown has the highest population density in the country,” Statistics Canada
Thirty-six of Canada’s downtowns reported a rise in their population over the five years, and 33 downtowns witnessed the pace of population growth accelerate compared to the previous census cycle from 2011 to 2016.
Downtowns have also become more densely populated since 2016, with the population of downtowns rising faster (10.9 per cent) than the population of CMAs overall (6.1 per cent). For example, Halifax’s downtown population grew three times faster (26.1 per cent) than the Halifax CMA (9.1 per cent).
A number of influences could be contributing to rising downtown population growth. Administrations in several cities have adopted plans to boost density and housing supply in downtowns, Statistics Canada noted. The desire to live in central neighbourhoods that minimize commute times and offer nearby services and entertainment is also a factor.
COVID-19 pumps breaks on population growth
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, the population in most of Canada’s downtowns either grew slower or declined.
From July 1st, 2020 to the end of June 2021, the downtown population of Toronto had grown 0.4 per cent, a slower pace compared to the 2016 to 2021 timeline, which increased 3.2 per cent annually.
“This may be related to housing supply, especially condominiums, where new units continued to come onto the market even after the onset of the pandemic,” noted the report. “Some buyers who bought their home prior to the pandemic may only have taken possession in 2020 or 2021.”
Thirty-eight of Canada’s 42 downtowns reported a slowdown in their population growth between July 1st, 2020 to June 2021 compared to pre-pandemic times (2016 to 2019). Populations dropped in 30 of Canada’s 42 downtowns during the same period.
To a lesser extent, the pace of population growth in the suburbs has also slowed since the start of the pandemic.
From July 2020 to June 2021, the population of the distant suburbs in the Toronto (1.8 per cent) and Montreal (0.7 per cent) CMAs grew at a slightly slower pace compared to the annual averages from 2016 to 2021, which were up 1.9 per cent in Toronto and 1.4 per cent in Montreal.
Statistics Canada pointed out that those working from home may have chosen to move out of the downtown to the suburbs in search of more space or a more affordable home, which may explain why the pandemic has had less of an impact on population growth in suburbs.
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