‘Astonishing’ drop in number of empty homes in Metro Vancouver: Census
Joanne Lee-Young
The Vancouver Sun
“To have such a sea change is astonishing,” said urban planner Andy Yan of Simon Fraser University’s City Program.
Simon Fraser University City Program director Andy Yan is shown in Coal Harbour. Photo by Mark van Manen/Files /PNG
In a surprising reversal, the number of dwellings in Vancouver that are either sitting empty or not occupied by “usual” residents has declined over the last five years.
This could be due to municipal and provincial regulations and taxes in Vancouver and B.C. that have dampened the demand for housing that’s not used as a primary residence, according to early observations.
Census data released last week show that the number of these dwellings dropped by 10 per cent in the City of Vancouver from 2016 to 2021. By contrast, this number increased by over 40 per cent in the city of Toronto.
For the metropolitan area of Vancouver, the number dropped by 8 per cent compared to an increase of 33 per cent in metro Toronto.
“To have such a sea change (in Vancouver and B.C.) is astonishing,” said urban planner Andy Yan of Simon Fraser University’s City Program.
Yan has been comparing census data over several decades to understand the role of empty or underused homes in an affordability crisis, especially in the years ahead of the 2016 census.
The census releases a measure it calls “private dwellings occupied by usual residents.” By taking the census count of the total number of dwellings and subtracting that number, Yan determines the number of dwellings that are either empty or occupied by “not usual” residents.
It’s a set that includes units used as short-term rentals on platforms such as Airbnb or as a pied-a-terre or second home for people who permanently live elsewhere. There might also be units in new developments that are counted as empty because people are moving in.
Students and workers from other countries with study and work permits are considered usual residents, according to StatsCan.
Overall, the picture has shifted between 2016 and 2021, said Yan.
In the City of Vancouver over the last five years, there has been a decline of 15 per cent from 8.2 per cent to 7 per cent in these empty or occupied by not usual resident dwellings. By the numbers, there’s a 10 per cent drop from 25,502 to 23,011.
Across Metro Vancouver, the raw numbers declined 8.2 per cent from 66,719 to 61,213, while the percentage decreased 15 per cent from 6.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent.
Yan also looked at communities with a population of over 100,000 across the country. In B.C., seven out of 10 municipalities showed a decline in the percentage of empty or occupied by not usual resident dwellings. The exceptions were in Burnaby, where there was a one per cent increase, in Langley Township, where there was a 20 per cent increase and in Kelowna, where there was a 39 per cent increase.
During the same period in Toronto there has been a 33 per cent increase from 5.6 per cent to 7.4 per cent in these empty or occupied by not usual resident dwellings. The shift has been a 40 per cent increase from 66,128 to 92,346 units. For the census metropolitan area of Toronto, the shift has been a 33 per cent increase from 99,236 to 131,732 units.
“We know the what, but we don’t know, for sure, the why,” said Yan. “I think the numbers suggest that recent municipal and provincial public policies on housing demand matters and has an effect on who and how housing is consumed in Vancouver and B.C.”
Both western and eastern real estate markets dipped and then soared in tandem during this time, but there have not been the same demand side measures in Toronto and Ontario.
Rohana Rezel, a Vancouver software architect known for his research on the negative impact of short-term apartment rentals on housing affordability in Vancouver, said that it’s clear, “something’s working.”
Some have been calling for measures — mainly, the city’s Airbnb regulations, its empty homes tax and the province’s foreign buyer, speculation and vacancy taxes — to be dropped because they haven’t yielded housing affordability and are seen as a cost burden that developers end up passing to buyers, Rezel disagreed.
“We aren’t seeing rents go down, but if these measures were not in place, they would have gone up more. It’s good vindication for people like me.”
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