Monthly housing starts in Greater Vancouver plunged 42 per cent in October, but that’s nothing to get too excited about, industry experts say.

Starts in the region are up 21 per cent so far this year and growth is expected to continue through 2005, boosted by provincial in-migration, rising full-time employment and improving export markets.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported 1,151 unit starts in October, with multiple starts (townhouses and condominiums) down 54 per cent and single detached up three per cent, compared to the same month last year.

Cameron Muir, senior market analyst for CMHC, said the decline is the result of normal month-to-month fluctuations in the multiple sector and “looks more dramatic than it is” because of strong multiple starts in October, 2003.

“The addition of a few large multiple projects in any given month can cause wide variation in total housing starts from month-to-month, and we don’t see it as a trend.”

Most of the decline was in the city of Vancouver, where there was a surge of activity in the spring and summer from developers who secured building permits before slated increases in development cost levies.

Muir noted that the B.C. economy is at the start of a growth cycle, with improving export markets and strong full-time employment growth that bodes well for housing markets.

Last week, Statistics Canada reported that building permits in B.C. were up 7.2 per cent in September over the previous month, while the value of permits across Canada was down 3.3 per cent, the first time in seven years that national permit values have fallen for three consecutive months.

“When you look at the number of full-time jobs created in Greater Vancouver and the building permits issued, it is a positive indicator for the next couple of years,” Muir said.

Starts were forecast to hit 16,600 for the Greater Vancouver region this year and are already at 16,350 for the first 10 months, said Greater Vancouver Home Builders Association chief executive Peter Simpson.

“We still have two months to go, and we are looking forward to 2005 being a continuation of the growth we have seen in 2004.” Simpson said. “In fact, B.C. is expected to be the only province to record higher starts next year.”

© The Vancouver Sun 2004