Troy Wolverton
Sun
The PC has been at the centre of the computing universe for three decades. But that’s about to change.
Within two or three years, smart phones will outsell PCs, if analysts’ projections hold true. Already, netbooks — essentially low-cost laptops with more limited capabilities than standard PCs — are the fastest-growing part of the PC market.
In coming years, the very idea of having a centre for computing in the home is likely to go away, replaced with a distributed array of linked devices that will include not just smart phones and notebooks, but TVs, set-top boxes, tablet devices, appliances and even alarm clocks. These devices will largely eliminate the need for a powerful PC and allow us to communicate with friends, access information such as stock quotes and control things such as lighting and alarm systems, wherever we happen to be inside or outside our house.
The folks at Google have been talking a lot lately about this transformation. John Herlihy, who heads Google’s European operations, stirred up a fuss earlier this month when he declared that the PC will be “irrelevant” in three years, replaced by smart phones. And last month, Google CEO Eric Schmidt said the company plans to focus on services and applications for high-end smart phones, not PCs.
Herlihy is overstating the case. Hundreds of millions of PCs will be sold in the next few years, expanding an existing base of about one billion PCs in use. For many people, the PC will continue to be their primary computing device for years to come.
The first computer for many others, though, particularly in the developing world, will be a smart phone. Even in the developed world, many people already use smart phones for tasks they previously undertook on a PC.
The power of the processors inside smart phones is increasing rapidly, allowing them to run increasingly complex applications.
At the same time, the speeds of the data networks they connect to are increasing as well, allowing the devices to more easily access powerful applications stored in the cloud.
As capable as smart phones are becoming, though, they’re not likely to take over all of the PC’s uses. Instead, they’ll be supplemented by other devices.
For example, many analysts expect Apple’s iPad to follow in the iPhone’s path as a hit device and spearhead a new market for tablet computers. There’s a good chance that many people will replace notebooks and desktops with those devices for watching Internet-based videos and playing games. That’s because they have large, bright screens like notebooks, but they are easier to hold and much more portable.
But the transformation of computing won’t end with tablets.
There’s a good chance that your TV, refrigerator, toaster oven and other appliances have processors inside them.
So do many toys, not to mention your iPod and digital camera. Your car probably has several. Game consoles have processors that rival PCs in power.
Now networking technologies are starting to link these computer-enabled devices together. Some of the devices are even starting to get full-scale operating systems that will allow them to run multiple applications, much like a PC. And new interface technologies offer the possibility of interacting with these devices in more natural ways than a keyboard and mouse.
Together, these developments are paving the way for a new kind of computer, one that’s made up of many distributed parts.
You can glimpse the future in things like Sonos‘ multiroom speaker system. It lets you stream music from Pandora to a speaker in your bedroom while playing a song from your music library in your study. Although a PC can be used in such an arrangement, it’s unnecessary: You can control what’s playing with an iPhone and store your music on a networked hard drive.
Similar systems can control lighting, thermostats and alarms.
In the near future, you most likely won’t need a smart phone. You’ll be able to get stock quotes by talking to your alarm clock. And you’ll be able to start a video conference from your TV by talking and waving to it.
The PC has been a great tool for many years. But its replacements promise to make computing an even more central — and personal — part of our lives.
San Jose Mercury News
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