Surrey office market tightest in Metro Vancouver

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

Another record-setting month for the B.C. housing market: BCREA

Tiffany Crawford
The Province

 Demand for homes in January was really high in the Fraser Valley, Interior and Vancouver Island regions. Photo by Mike Bell /PNG

January was another record-setting month for the B.C. housing market, according to a B.C. Real Estate Association report on Thursday.

The BCREA reports that a total of 7,169 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service in January, an increase of 63.3 per cent over January 2020 and over 1,000 sales higher than the previous record for the month of January.

The average price in B.C. was $845,169, a 16.1-per-cent increase from $728,269 recorded in January 2020, according to the report.

BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson says while sales were strong across the province, the Fraser Valley, Interior and Vancouver Island regions shattered sales records and “pushed January sales to new heights.”

Demand is outstripping supply, however, with the report showing B.C. listings down 21.5 per cent in January, the lowest level of listings on record.

Ogmundson says with strong sales and so few listings, market conditions are exceptionally tight with less than three months of total supply.

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“The supply of listings continues to be held back by the pandemic,” Ogmundson said in a statement Thursday. “With so few listings, markets are starved for supply and prices are under extraordinary pressure.”

The average price of a home skyrocketed year over year in some areas. In the Fraser Valley, the average price for all home types jumped 25.8 per cent to $944,996 and 26.7 per cent in the B.C. Interior to $634,465.

In Victoria, the average cost of a home went up 19.2 per cent to $868.509, while homes on Vancouver Island went up 10.9 per cent to $528,930. In Greater Vancouver, home prices jumped 11.2 per cent to $1,089,096 in January compared to the same month the year before.

 

© 2021 The Province

What January slowdown? Greater Vancouver real estate started year hot and continues to accelerate

Peter Kenter
The Vancouver Sun

The Greater Vancouver real estate market recorded 2,454 home sales in January, the third highest of all time. Home supply remains limited, however, with a trend toward multiple offers. GETTY IMAGES

The early new year is a typically slow period for real estate. Not so in Greater Vancouver this year, where demand for properties remained strong through January — and appears to be accelerating. Supply, however, remains limited, resulting in substantial interest in available properties and a trend toward multiple offers.“With very few people heading for sunny destinations, the market started hot on January 1 and has picked up steam, week over week,” says Kevin Skipworth, owner/broker and chief economist of Dexter Realty. “We saw a strong market for detached homes as we closed out last year and that market is going into overdrive. Not to be left behind, the townhouse market is following closely and the apartment market is also a contender, with buyers seeking apartments more than they have been in previous months.”Buyers are largely motivated by a desire to live in different accommodations with some remaining in the same general area and others looking to relocate. Having spent so much of 2020 at home during the pandemic, many simply want a change, while others are making a shift to quarters that will better accommodate a home office or better suit a family spending more time at home.

“We’re seeing a broad range of buyers,” says Skipworth. “Renters looking to own, buyers who are looking to move into larger quarters, and others who are downsizing. There’s demand across all housing types and all demographics.”How hot was January’s real estate market? There were 2,454 properties of all types sold in Greater Vancouver, compared with 1,602 sales in January of last year and 1,120 sold in January 2019. This January recorded the third-highest number of sales of all time, nuzzling up to the record high of 2,574 in 2016.

However, the market continues to experience a shortage of properties of all types, resulting in significant buyer attention for properties offered.“Buyers in Greater Vancouver are demonstrating an insatiable demand for homes and there just isn’t enough supply to keep up,” Skipworth says. “For example, we saw a large number of showings requested for a house in Burnaby last month, with a significant number of offers following those showings. Multiple offers were becoming common in the latter half of 2020, but they’re now making up the majority of transactions. If you’ve considered selling your property, now is a good time to look at what the market is offering.”

 

© 2021 Vancouver Sun

David Rosenberg: For now, only a Black Swan could stop this rally ? but get ready for a July reckoning

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Cryptocurrency boom is ‘speculative mania,’ Bank of Canada deputy says

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The realities of Canada’s pandemic-triggered urban exodus

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Broker News

The exodus of homebuyers from major urban centres is one of the more interesting curveballs thrown at the Canadian real estate space by COVID-19. The sudden creation of what many feel will be a lasting remote work paradigm forced the country’s homeowners to question the logic of paying big city prices for their properties if proximity to a job downtown is no longer part of their dream home checklist. If you can live anywhere and still be able to clock-in for work, why not sell at today’s inflated prices and pay cash for what’s almost certainly going to be a larger property in a quieter, less congested community? 

It makes sense. To a point.

COVID-19 has provided an unexpected opportunity for homeowners in hot markets to cash out and relocate, but much of this frenzied leaping into 20- and 25-year mortgage commitments has been triggered by what is an objectively short-term phenomenon. By February 2022, no-one will be making financial bets based on COVID-19; some may, however, already regret the wagers they made in 2020.

MBN wanted to take a closer look at Canada’s urban exodus, the sustainability of which some economists are already questioning. It has been a boon for small town realtors and mortgage brokers, but where will these new homeowners be once cities regain their reputation as the employment, educational, and cultural capitals they have always been? What happens to first-time homebuyers who get priced out of historically affordable markets and must now pray that lenders are willing to play ball in a rural community of 30,000 people?

Some of the ripple effects of the urban exodus will not be felt for years, but some are washing over small Canadian communities as you read this.

Impact on first-time buyers

Without question, the cohort most impacted by the urban exodus has been prospective buyers in formerly affordable smaller markets.

This is hardly a new trend. Sellers in pricey urban markets like Greater Vancouver and Toronto have been cashing-out and purchasing larger properties in nearby cities like Nanaimo, Surrey, and Abbotsford (in British Columbia); and Hamilton, Oshawa, and Guelph (in Ontario) for years. The result has been an influx of demand in cities even further afield – sleepier Ontario communities like Milton, Orangeville, and Peterborough; or virtually any city on Vancouver Island.

Until last year, residents of these formerly secondary and tertiary markets still had options. If Peterborough gets too expensive, buy in Lindsay. If you can’t afford Kelowna, there’s always Penticton. Now that big-city buyers are coming to town with enough cash to smother most local bids, prices in even off-the grid Ontario communities like Dunnville or Cayuga, both south of Hamilton, have risen to levels few locals are prepared to pay.

“They’re going through the roof,” says Graeme Moss of Hamilton-based Fair Mortgage Solutions of home prices in the region. “A home that would have gone for $300,000 two or three years ago is now going for $545,000 or more.”

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the average price of homes sold in Ontario in December 2020 was 20.1% higher than a year before.

Moss says buyers considering bidding on properties priced in the $550,000 range know they may realistically need to bring as much as $700,000 to the table to eventually come out victorious in any competitive bidding scenarios.

Giving advice in such a roiled market is tricky.

“People are feeling that the prices are so high that they can’t be sustained. They’re asking if it’s a bubble, and we’re not sure what to say,” Moss said. “The prices seem very, very high. But if we say to a person, ‘Step back and don’t transact,’ what if in six months prices are higher again?”

The problem is less pronounced in Alberta, where six years of soft home values and a pistol-whipped economy have kept home prices grounded in both the province’s major cities and its rural communities. But something’s definitely happening in Wild Rose country. The average sale price in Alberta rose a healthy 12.3% in January, but the only urban market to experience price gains of more than 8% was Lethbridge – the benchmark price in Calgary rose only 1.9% in January, Fort McMurray’s was down a horrifying 25.8% — indicating that much of the price growth must be happening in off-the-radar communities.

Tim Hurlbut of TNT Mortgages says Albertans will likely remain open to paying higher prices because of the intangible benefits of rural living.

“The reason for the exodus, in my opinion, is more people are being forced to spend time with family and are enjoying it,” he said. “The hustle and bustle can be tough on families and relationships, and people realize a slower pace in life can be more enjoyable.”

In B.C., Centum’s Reza Sabour says the price increases related to the exodus from Vancouver can be seen as people flee the city to the east.

“When they do, it creates a bit of a tsunami of escalating prices,” Sabour said. “For example, as people in downtown Vancouver head to Burnaby, the prices in Burnaby soar. When people in Burnaby head to New Westminster, the prices in New Westminster soar. With each level of migration, the next city experiences a price increase due to the demand and very limited stock of supply.” 

Sabour said B.C.’s interior, formerly a bastion of affordability, is another area where urban buyers have been driving up prices. The British Columbia Real Estate Association said interior markets like Kamloops, Kootenay, Okanagan Mainline, and South Okanagan all posted average price growth of between 19% and 37.2% in 2020.

What happens to borrowers who can no longer afford to purchase in the small cities they currently call home? They can play their own versions of “drive ‘til you qualify”, but small towns and big mortgages don’t usually mix. Lenders, wary of the risk of selling a foreclosed property in a small town, often display a hesitancy to lend to the same extent in rural communities that they do in cities.

“Extreme rural properties have always been scrutinized more heavily by lenders, especially if they are not connected to a major city’s water supply,” Sabour said. “If they rely strictly on septic or well water, for example, then they can be more difficult to finance. Buyers do typically need to adjust their expectations and strategies in the sense that the more rural and smaller the community they plan to move to becomes, the less lender options exist.”

Hurlbut feels lenders are “not very eager at all” to lend in towns and small rural cities, but he adds that the situation is “100% not their fault.”

“If fewer people want to buy properties for sale, the value can fluctuate too much.  The loan amounts are also smaller, which means fewer total dollars are funded for the same amount or more work” on the lender’s part, Hurlbut said.

Moss said that some lenders brought into small-town deals have been edging away from the 80% loan-to-value ratios typically seen in more densely populated cities to a more conservative 65%.

“Your options become more limited, in a way, if it’s more rural or small,” Moss said. “There are lenders that will say, ‘We want it within 30 kilometres of Hamilton or a rural population center.’”

Because of the demand for housing and the amount of price growth seen in smaller communities, some lenders are beginning to soften their stances on where and how much to lend. John Vo of Spicer Vo Mortgage in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, told MBN that he experienced multiple scenarios in 2020 where lenders first reduced the amount they were willing to lend on a property because of its rural location only to change course and fund between 75% and 80% in towns like Lake Echo and Wolfville.

“They increased the rate a little bit because they knew it was a little farther than what they wanted to do, but they were willing to do it,” he said.

Hurlbut said homeowners must approach rural purchases with realistic expectations. Without the same market drivers that have traditionally supported home values in larger cities, like employment growth or post-secondary education facilities, appreciation is not necessarily guaranteed, particularly if the exodus fizzles out.

“Do not expect your property to double, triple or quadruple in value. Your property should not be your retirement plan,” Hurlbut said, adding that if rural buyers find themselves self-employed or in financial trouble, “the rates will be much higher – or not there at all.”

The rural boom’s echo

CIBC’s Benjamin Tal was the first prominent economist to sound the alarm over the eventual end of the urban exodus, which he argues will take place when businesses decide they want their workers back in an accessible central location. If living in a small town then means hundreds of dollars in fresh commuting and lunch costs every month, many may be forced to rethink their shiny new mortgages.

But some, like RateSpy founder Robert McLister, don’t see the remote work revolution winding down any time soon.

“It’s not for everyone, but countless companies have discovered that work-from-home works. That and a desire to slash expensive office space and keep employees happy will make remote working a long-term trend,” McLister said.

But McLister agrees that rural real estate’s time in the sun will likely be short-lived.

“The exodus will end at some point, and people will start absorbing the supply in urban centres. When that happens, potentially this year or next, any price weakness should correct itself,” he said.

Vo, too, believes a correction will be coming, one that should slow sales rather than tank home values.

“Right now, everybody wants distance from each other – rightfully so – but I think at some point in time people are going to gravitate back to the urban cities and these rural communities will lose their oomph a little bit,” Vo said. “At the end of the day, we’ll just start to see some homes sit on the market longer than they used to.”

Hurlbut feels that Canada’s inevitable recovery in employment will result in businesses bringing their workers back to a central office where they can better monitor their efficiency. But he doesn’t see this future trend eroding home values to a material extent.

“As for homeowners struggling with negative equity, I would say that would be a ‘no’. The exodus is mostly made up of people who can afford to leave and will not return to their hectic lifestyles as they have made their money,” he said. “The core will return with a new set of people as it always does, and the people who won the lottery in the form of quadruple property values will stay in a relaxed lifestyle with their property values staying the same.”

There also remains the question of just how long and how deeply these new rural homeowners and their city-raised children remain in love with their new communities. If an individual, for example, had difficulty committing to wearing a weightless piece of cloth over his face a few minutes a day, how easily will the same person be willing to commit to a community that has no malls, no restaurants, one school, and is a lengthy drive from any friends or family? When these homeowners tire of rural life, the line-up of people waiting to take their place may not be so long in 2026.

“I do find it interesting,” Vo said, “that people are making life-long decisions because of what’s going on in the short-term.”

 

Copyright © 2021 Key Media

REITs take long view of Vancouver?s rental market even as vacancies rise, rents drop

Joanne Lee-Young
The Vancouver Sun

The recent deal saw 614 units owned by Vancouver-based Hollyburn Properties in the West End, South Granville, West Point Grey, Kitsilano and Marpole areas sold to two Ontario-based real estate investment trusts

Vancouver’s West End was one of the neighbourhoods where properties were part of last month’s $292.5-million sale of apartment buildings to two Ontario-based real estate investment trusts. Photo by JENNIFER GAUTHIER /REUTERS files

The COVID pandemic has lowered demand for rental properties and thus what landlords are charging, but investors looking to buy apartment buildings to earn a financial return believe this is temporary, says a B.C. real estate executive.

Lance Coulson, an executive vice-president at commercial broker CBRE, sold 15 rental apartment buildings, nine of them of concrete construction and on the west side, for almost $300 million in late January.

The deal covered a total of 614 housing units in the West End, South Granville, West Point Grey, Kitsilano and Marpole that were owned by Vancouver-based Hollyburn Properties. They were sold to two Ontario-based real estate investment trusts, Ottawa’s InterRent and Toronto’s Crestpoint, for $292.5 million.

Because of its size, the deal is being cited in a motion to Vancouver city council, submitted by Coun. Jean Swanson and calling for  “protecting tenants from real estate investment trusts.”

The motion, which is on Tuesday’s council agenda, proposes council write to Ottawa about the growing number of rental units owned by REITs and the “commodification of housing, housing security and affordability for Vancouver residents.”

It asks Ottawa to base tax rates for REITs “on the amount of affordable housing they provide or destroy” and for the federal and provincial governments to help facilitate the buying of rental stock by non-profits and co-operatives. Other proposals include tying financing for these deals with clear conditions to prevent rent increases upon tenant turnover.

More real estate investment trusts, which have deep pockets and make investments so they can pay shareholders, are interested in Vancouver and B.C. properties, but it’s hard to predict if other large deals like this are coming, said Coulson.

“Vancouver is not a big market compared to Eastern Canada. In Ontario and Quebec, they’ve got more land, more product and stock, and these portfolio sales are more common,” he said.

He said that apartment buildings, which offer a basic need of shelter, are a “defensive asset class” for institutional investors like REITs that want to offset some of the losses they face with their retail or office properties that have been hard hit by the pandemic. Interest rates are also very low with financing available on multi-family purchases as low as 1.7 per cent, he added.

Investors have confidence that “when students and migration return” after the pandemic, vacancy rates will once again be very tight and rents will increase.

The sale marks InterRent’s entry into Vancouver. The REIT ranks 15th on a list of the top 25 largest landlords by the number of suites owned in Canada. The list was compiled by a University of Waterloo planning professor, Martine August, for a report in 2018 looking at the shift to rental housing being increasingly owned by funds that consolidate thousands of suites.

August writes that InterRent REIT looks for markets that are “fragmented in terms of ownership and are not generally the focus of larger REITS” and that it identifies “greater opportunities for rent increases” in these markets.

That would be a dim outlook for tenants in those buildings with prime locations who, even with housing costs dampened by the pandemic, face significant affordability issues in an expensive market. Critics of rising REIT ownership of apartment buildings say rent controls would temper rising costs.

However, said Coulson, many of these existing rental apartment buildings need investment. “If your operating expenses are going up and you can’t grow your rents, you’re getting negative cash flow,” said Coulson. “That money is going to go somewhere else.”

 

© 2021 Vancouver Sun

Canada’s reverse mortgage giants had a monster 2020

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Broker News

anada’s reverse mortgage providers were, like virtually every other entity involved in real estate in 2020, inundated with requests from new and prospective clients. The economic upheaval triggered by COVID-19 may have taken its toll most directly on lower-wage workers – not exactly reverse mortgage’s target demographic – but it’s little surprise that Canadians nearing, or well into, retirement would want to access the equity in their homes as a way of supporting their children and grandchildren through an extended period of economic pain.

But in speaking with representatives from Canada’s two leading reverse mortgage providers, HomeEquity Bank and Equitable Bank, the rise in demand for reverse mortgages is no pandemic fluke. Neither HEB nor Equitable is preparing for a decrease in business once COVID-19’s in the rear-view mirror; both wholly expect to keep their foot on the gas, in 2021 and beyond.

The year that was

Paul von Martels, vice president at Equitable Bank, said 2020 was an “important” year for the company, but “watershed” may be more accurate. As reported in filings with the Ontario Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Equitable’s reverse mortgage portfolio doubled between November 2019 and November 2020.

“We saw the opportunity presented and moved on it by lowering rates in-line with other mortgage products, by increasing our LTVs to a max of 55% and strengthening our reach in the broker channel through our Customer Success and EQB BDM team,” von Martels told Mortgage Broker News.

Over at HEB, where loan originations grew by 14% during the fourth quarter of 2020, regional vice president Clive Coke told MBN that demand for HomeEquity’s products was largely in line with what the company had been anticipating earlier in the year.

“We thought that COVID might have impacted us more, but it actually pushed up our business,” Coke said.

In the early days of the pandemic, a maelstrom of homeowner panic and shifting lender guidelines, the reverse mortgage space may not have been every broker’s first thought when in need of a relevant solution for her clients. Coke said HEB’s strategy was to educate its broker partners that the bank had a sound strategy for assisting borrowers while other lenders’ knuckles were turning white. 

“Sometimes people think, ‘This is what’s happening in the marketplace. Lenders are going to stop lending.’ And we did see some of that,” Coke said. “But from our perspective, we were a little bit COVID-proof.”

Despite having to juggle a sudden surge in business at a time of economic chaos, von Martels said Equitable’s experience in the reverse mortgage space allowed it to serve its clients without succumbing to the kinds of capacity constraints that can leave borrowers feeling neglected and confused.

“We’re fortunate to be supporting this solution through a very mature bank with leading-edge service levels,” he said. “Our reverse mortgage credit team has grown in numbers and experience to accommodate the volume.”

Reverse risks rising?

Reverse mortgages, because of the variables involved – home prices, interest rates, life – often appear, to the uninitiated, as being riskier than the average loan product. With so much uncertainty around the future of Canadian home prices, could reverse mortgages be setting themselves up for disaster?

RateSpy founder Robert McLister doesn’t believe in such a dramatic scenario.

“As more seniors reverse mortgage, we may see an acceleration in aggregate home equity depletion, other things being equal,” he said. “But the practical impact of that depends largely on home price appreciation. Some won’t be happy with their smaller inheritances, but maybe children should worry more about their parents’ happiness than their personal bank balances.”

Coke says HEB’s statistical models, which take into consideration life expectancy and home values, have proven to be robust risk mitigation tools. But he says the idea of reverse mortgages being uniquely risky is a misconception.

“Many people jump online and Google ‘reverse mortgages’ and they don’t realize that they’re on a US website,” he said, noting the significant differences in each country’s approach to power of sale and foreclosure proceedings. “When people find that it’s more risky, they don’t actually realize that they’re comparing US reverse mortgages to Canadian reverse mortgages.”

Both Coke and von Martels pointed out that their reverse mortgage clients are covered by built-in equity protections.

“The fact that there’s a No Negative Equity Guarantee does mean that the client’s downside is, in a sense, protected,” von Martels said, adding that risk is somewhat organically mitigated by today’s high home prices and low interest rates. Many of Equitable’s reverse mortgage clients, he said, use their freed equity to update and renovate their properties, driving values even higher.

“If they had the option of selling and downsizing, they’d consider it. But this is a lower cost, easier, and less disruptive alternative,” von Martels said.

The future of Canada’s reverse mortgage market

Canadians arguably know more about the risks and rewards associated with reverse mortgages than ever before. Their willingness to engage the space signals to von Martels a shift in attitude among borrowers and brokers.

“I have sensed a shift, and the growth in outstanding reverse mortgage balances would support the narrative that Canadians continue seeing value in accessing home equity via a reverse mortgage,” he said, noting that it wasn’t until recently that enough room existed in the space for a second major player.

Coke believes HEB, Canada’s longest-running reverse mortgage provider, has been instrumental in opening Canadian minds to the product’s possibilities. In addition to its ongoing efforts to educate brokers and business partners on the value and sustainability of the bank’s offerings, HEB’s recent marketing efforts – the “Doris” ad chief among them – go beyond dollars and cents and appeal, quite savvily, to homeowners’ emotions in a way that, rather than patronizing them, actually validates their dreams.

“Our marketing team is phenomenal in how they understand the psyche of our customers and what it takes to change their perceptions,” Coke said.

Because of Canada’s rapid warming to reverse mortgages, both Coke and von Martels see demand in the space continuing to intensify, even if the economy recovers and liquidity is no longer an immediate concern for the country’s retired homeowners.

“The fundamentals behind the product,” von Martels said, “are robust. Namely, record home prices, rock-bottom interest rates, and a resounding preference to remain in the home for as long as possible.”

Citing data from the Equity Release Council and Ernst & Young, von Martels said the Canadian reverse mortgage market is estimated to grow by “three to four times over the next 10 years.”

Coke is similarly optimistic about HomeEquity Bank’s fortunes in the years to come. He said that HEB’s research indicates what amounts to a 50-50 split between customers who need its product – to clear debt, to create a reserve fund – and those who want it as a means of funding their vacations, making further investments, or helping their families by choice rather than out of a sense of desperation.

“From our perspective, the need is always there. But [a reverse mortgage] is not just a product of last resort. There is a massive group of people that want to access their equity safely and securely to do the things they haven’t yet gotten to do,” Coke said, adding that a whopping 39% of Canadians fit the company’s target demographic.

“It’s almost like the stars have aligned,” he added. “It’s simply about us being there to service clients and help them know they have options.”

At Equitable, von Martels says maintaining the momentum generated in 2020 will rely on the bank reaching out to its broker partners, encouraging them to switch their clients to an Equitable reverse product, and offering them “the best service available.” 

He, too, thinks reverse mortgages’ time has arrived.

“Even before COVID there was a resounding preference for aging in place as opposed to moving into some form retirement living. Something like 99% of Canadians want to age in their homes for as long as possible,” he said. “I subscribe to the belief that when COVID is behind us, there will be a surge in consumption – and that takes cash flow, some of which will be accessed via home equity.”

 

Copyright © 2021 Key Media

Canada?s reverse mortgage giants had a monster 2020

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Magazine

Saskatoon industrial sector defies pandemic

WI Staff
Western Investor

— A build-to-suit Saskatoon industrial building in early 2020. | Varsteel Inc.

In spite of the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) recent estimate that Saskatchewan’s real GDP contracted by 4.7 per cent per cent in 2020, Saskatoon’s industrial vacancy rate declined by a miniscule 0.33 per cent to 5.32 per cent as of the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2020, according to Barry Stuart, managing partner of ICR Commercial Real Estate in Saskatchewan’s largest city.

The ICR’s Q4 2020 industrial report states, “Investor interest in the industrial market continued to be driven by relatively strong sectoral and property market fundamentals, both of which are expected to extend into the beginning of 2021.”

There is a lack of speculative building, however, as just two industrial building permits were issued in 2020 totalling 20,000 square feet, the report noted. The total industrial inventory in Saskatoon is 2.6 million square feet.

“This is only going to place greater pressure on the existing vacancy rate,” Stuart said.

“Regardless of whether we are discussing industrial, retail or office, I believe we are in a healthy commercial real estate market when vacancy rates are under 5 per cent,” he said.

“I believe the overall Saskatoon industrial vacancy rate will finally break below that 5 per cent barrier in 2021 which would be the first time since 2010,” Stuart said, though he conceded he made the same prediction for 2020, just weeks before the pandemic arrived.

“The one factor that could negatively impact that prediction is a significant increase in spec building this spring and slowing market demand to absorb that new inventory,” he said.

The latest RBC forecast for Saskatchewan’s economy suggests improvement over the next two years.

The RBC projects that provincial GDP will reach 4.7 per cent in 2021, up from minus 4.7 per cent in 2020, and reach 4.2 per cent in 2020. It further forecast that the unemployment rate in the province will drop from the current 7.8 per cent to 6.6 per cent this year and 5.9 per cent in 2022, which is close to pre-pandemic levels. Retail sales, which affect demand for industrial warehouse and distribution space, is forecast to increase 5.3 per cent this year and a further 3.3 per cent the following year.

 

© Copyright 2020 Western Investor