Vancouver Real Estate Market and among other major markets marked slowdown

June 30th, 2020

Brokers: Vancouver market still a long way from full recovery

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Despite the economy reopening, Vancouver is still far from its normal highs as one of Canada’s leading real estate destinations, according to local industry players.

Amid the continued ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the market has been largely characterized by strict sanitation and social distancing measures among buyers and real estate professionals alike.

“We screen people who enter and exit homes very diligently. Almost all the showings are done with buyers’ agents,” said Steven Saretsky, a Vancouver-based realtor and markets observer. “It’s a little bit more work and effort, because there are more private showings as opposed to funnelling people through one house and collecting offers after.”

Saretsky said that the marked slowdown in Vancouver, which is also apparent in other major markets, will likely persist for the rest of the year.

“If we see any market correction it likely won’t be until Q4 when mortgage deferrals begin to expire,” Saretsky told the Financial Post.

Last month, markets observer Douglas Todd said that plummeting immigration numbers during the coronavirus crisis would have a significant impact on the Vancouver housing market.

“Start with the drastic drop in tourist numbers. With borders virtually closed to international travellers, investors who relied on short-term rentals like Airbnb to hold onto their properties have been left in the lurch. Many Airbnb hosts will likely be forced to sell,” Todd said. “Citizenship ceremonies have been cancelled during COVID-19 confinement and the processing of would-be permanent residents is being held back.”

Immigration accounted for roughly 85% of Metro Vancouver’s population increase in recent years, Todd said.

“This pandemic is sure to affect the choices of would-be immigrants,” Todd said. “And it will also affect people who might buy urban Canadian properties with money earned offshore, which is the gasoline that has been accelerating Vancouver’s already-unaffordable housing costs.”

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Canada Revenue Agency will be taking a closer look at Real Estate transaction

June 30th, 2020

CRA to conduct cross-border investigation on real estate tax evasion

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

The Canada Revenue Agency has announced that it will be taking a closer look at real estate transactions in the United States to search for Canadians with hidden income.

 In its cross-border investigations, the CRA will be studying transactions spanning from 2014 to 2020, with particular focus on owner names, municipal addresses and assessments, sales histories, and property land/floor areas, among others.

“This information will enhance the Agency’s ability to administer tax programs and to enhance the various tax Acts in order to protect Canada’s revenue base and to support the Agency’s business and research processes,” the CRA said in a notice. “The agency requires US real estate and real property data where a Canadian resident is the owner or party to the purchase, sale or transfer.”

In 2016, the agency instituted a fine of up to $8,000 for an owner failing to report the sale of their primary residence, although the sale itself is non-taxable.

The policy was intended to establish paper trails for taxable transactions such as sales of investment and recreational properties, according to Blacklock’s Reporter.

“In recent years, the agency has increasingly been identifying cases where taxpayers did not report their income from real estate transactions,” the CRA said last year. “The penalties and interest associated with unreported real estate sales can be substantial.”

Last year, the CRA estimated that the amount lost due to unpaid gross real estate taxes since 2015 was more than $1 billion.

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Canada Revenue Agency will be taking a closer look at Real Estate transaction

June 30th, 2020

CRA to conduct cross-border investigation on real estate tax evasion

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Canada Revenue Agency will be taking a closer look at Real Estate transaction

June 30th, 2020

CRA to conduct cross-border investigation on real estate tax evasion

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Canada Revenue Agency will be taking a closer look at Real Estate transaction

June 30th, 2020

CRA to conduct cross-border investigation on real estate tax evasion

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

CRA: Tracks thousand beneficiaries abusing federal financial assistance programs

June 29th, 2020

CRA: Thousands abusing federal financial assistance programs

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Federal financial aid – which was intended to get households and businesses back on their feet amid the ravages of the COVID-19 pandemic – is being taken advantage of by a significant number of cheaters, the Canada Revenue Agency has reported.

CRA told CBC that it is looking into more than 3,300 tips of benefit abuse as of June 21. This swelled from the 600 leads on May 31, and the 1,300 tips just over a week after.

CBC reported that around 361,000 repayments for CERB have already been made by Canadians who weren’t eligible for the program – up from the 190,000 repayments as of June 3.

CRA provided assurances that it conducts thorough pre-payment verifications and post-payment reviews on every applicant. The agency said that all repayments so far have been voluntary.

The agency did not release exact numbers, however. It also said that it will not provide monetary rewards for legitimate leads on suspected cheating.

“The Canada Revenue Agency does track the number of fraudulent CERB claims, but to protect the integrity of our processes, these specific statistics are not available at this time,” CRA said.

Conservative MP Dan Albas said that the confusion stems from the unclear eligibility rules.

“For months, Justin Trudeau has failed to take the issue of CERB fraud seriously. Instead of listening and fixing the gaps in existing programs, the Trudeau Liberals are giving hundreds of millions of dollars to fraudsters,” Albas said. “This is wrong. Conservatives will continue to make sure taxpayers are respected while ensuring support gets to Canadians who need it.”

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

Canadian Housing Market is due for a crash

June 25th, 2020

Report says housing market is due for a crash

David Kitai
Mortgage Broker News

A report from an international macroeconomic research firm says that Canada’s economy is headed for a long, difficult period due largely to the effects of COVID-19 and the weaknesses in Canada’s housing market.

The report “Canada on thin ice as it heats up” by Macro Research Board (MRB) partners paints a bleak picture. The report says that Canada has followed global trends in falling into a ‘sudden stop’ recession with high unemployment and a plunge in activity. It says that Canada is more exposed than most economies, however, because of “an unstable real estate bubble and household credit binge.” It says policymakers are putting off the day of reckoning but have run out of ammunition and there is no guarantee they can prevent a housing bust. The report says such a correction will have long-term positive effects in creating more caution among Canadian consumers, the short to medium term will be a rocky road to recovery.

“The Canadian economy has been increasingly driven over the past decade by the real estate boom and debt-fueled consumption binge,” The report reads. “In turn, a substantial housing and credit bubble has developed on the back of overly accommodative policy. We previously identified Canada as a candidate for a future housing downturn and deleveraging cycle but had noted that there was a lack of a sufficient adverse catalyst to bring these imbalances home to roost3. That all changed this year. The heightened uncertainty caused by the surge in unemployment and plunge in household confidence may encourage many Canadians to reconsider stretching beyond their means heading forward.”

While the report notes that the Canadian government is aggressively attempting to prevent a major deleveraging cycle, if it does develop it may prove to difficult and costly to stop. They say most indices they’re watching, such as upticks in shopping or downturns in the amount of time Canadians are spending at home, don’t point to a surging restart in the Canadian economy.

Unemployment surging is, according to MRB partners, a “massive headwind” for Canada’s housing market. While low rates and stimulus are helpful, if job losses prove sticky during the reopening there’s a risk of a crash in the market. MRB’s analysts say Canada needs a V-shaped recovery to avoid such a crash.

Underlying this issue, according to the report, is a decade of surging property values and a deterioration in household balance sheets, with many Canadians now living in massive levels of consumer debt. Despite aggressive support policy, MRB says the housing bubble they see is set to burst, though they are closely watching activity as restrictions on viewings ease.

The report doesn’t make a regional breakdown of Canadian housing numbers, but does raise the concern that supply was already beginning out outpace demand before the pandemic. Unsold inventories have been surging over the past two years, at levels close to housing crash of the early 90s. As builders get back to work earlier than much of the general economy, the record levels of construction in cities like Toronto pose a risk of glutting the market.

MRB’s report says that emergency measures like CERB, the wage subsidy, and the deferral of mortgages, all risk compounding the problem. If they’re allowed to run out at a certain time and the economy fails to make a rapid and stark restart, MRB is highly concerned about the possibility of a “deferral cliff.”

“Extreme fiscal policy efforts are providing temporary support but it will prove difficult for Canadian policymakers to prevent a material housing fallout, unless the domestic (and global) economy experience a V-shaped recovery and soon restore employment to pre-shutdown levels (which we are not expecting),” the report reads. “Substantial oversupply and the lack of valuation support are major problems at a point when the housing market faces new and powerful headwinds. When homeowners are stretching to buy, they need to believe that their jobs are secured (and wages will increase) and that their home value will continue to appreciate. If these conditions are threatened (which is now the case), it can quickly weaken confidence and housing demand, causing prices to fall substantially. This was last seen in the U.S. and parts of Europe during the late-2000s. Canada is now at the cusp of heading down this path if employment and job security do not rebound strongly and shortly.”

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

The road to a full recovery, defined as economic activity reaching its pre-COVID-19 level, B.C

June 25th, 2020

B.C. will lead post-pandemic recovery

Tyler Orton
Western Investor

British Columbia is poised to weather the economic uncertainty of the COVID-19 better than all other provinces, according to a new report from Deloitte Canada.

“The B.C. economy will be the outperformer, posting the mildest downturn and returning to pre-COVID levels the quickest,” Deloitte Canada chief economist Craig Alexander wrote in a June 25 outlook.

Following up with Business in Vancouver, Alexander said B.C. can still expect a “severe” recession far worse than the Great Recession that unfolded more than a decade ago.

He noted that large parts of the B.C. economy, such as the service sector and hospitality, have been ravaged by the impacts of COVID-19.

“But if we look at the economic contraction and recovery in B.C., I think that you’re likely to find that the contraction is a bit less than the national average,” he said, adding the recovery will also be “a bit stronger” than the national numbers.

The outlook calls for the B.C. economy to contract by about 5 per cent in 2020 before experiencing just over 6% growing in 2021.

Canada, meanwhile, is expected to see its economy contract by 5.9 per cent this year before growing 5.6 per cent in 2021.

“A lot of this has to do with the success that B.C. has had in bending the curve on the number of new infections. B.C.’s done better than other provinces,” Alexander told BIV.

The economist added the province has also acquitted itself in terms of how it handled the initial shutdown and subsequent reopening of the economy.

“B.C. elected to say, ‘Given the type of work that was taking place … that residential construction was actually essential.’ So, it was kept open,” Alexander said, pointing to one example.

“So those sorts of policy decisions combined with a better record in terms of [COVID-19 cases] are why I think B.C. is going to outperform.”

The biggest challenge ahead is the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 to hit Canada, particularly if this leads to more lockdowns, he added.

“So long as this does not occur, and the gradual reopening continues globally, 

a recovery should unfold in Canada in the second half of 2020,” the outlook states.

“However, the road to a full recovery, defined as economic activity reaching its pre-COVID-19 level, will take at least six quarters. This is due to continued health risks and the gradual nature of the economic reopening. It will also be hindered by expected weakness in the commodity sector.”

Economists at the Business Council of B.C. (BCBC) last week forecasted the province’s GDP will shrink 7.8 per cent in 2020 — a greater contraction than the 7.3 per cent they predicted in March.

The BCBC also sees the province’s contraction as less pronounced than Canada as a whole, which the council forecasted as shrinking 8% in 2020 if no second wave of COVID-19 hits the country.  

If a second wave hits, Canada is looking at a 9.4 per cent decline in real GDP before growing 1.5 per cent next year.

The West Coast economy is, however, forecast to grow 4.8 per cent in 2021, according to the BCBC.

 

© Copyright 2020 Western Investor

Macroeconomic research foresee about housing market is due for a crash

June 25th, 2020

Report says housing market is due for a crash

David Kitai
Mortgage Broker News

Banks, Borrowers, Broker or There has clearly been a communication breakdown educating about the implications of mortgage deferrals

June 25th, 2020

Brokers, borrowers, the Big Six: Who dropped the ball on mortgage deferrals?

Clayton Jarvis
Mortgage Broker News

When COVID-19 shut down the Canadian economy in March, homeowners across the country, facing the prospect of falling behind on their mortgage payments through no fault of their own, panicked. Desperate to keep their heads above water, these borrowers were thrown a lifeline by Canada’s major financial institutions, who offered them the possibility of deferring those payments for six months.

Canadians flocked to deferral programs. The Big Six reported that they had allowed deferred payments on more than $180 billion of residential mortgage and real estate-secured loan balances in the three months prior to April 30. CIBC alone had offered deferral options to 108,000 customer accounts. As of May 21, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported that 27 percent of its mortgages in Quebec were in deferral; 26 percent were deferred in Alberta, 21 percent in Ontario. 

Mortgage deferment has so far helped prevent a wave of panic selling that could have sent the housing market into a catastrophic freefall. In that regard, it has been an overwhelming, inarguable success. But recent discussions with some of the country’s top mortgage brokers show that Canadian borrowers are still unaware of what deferring their mortgages means or what effects the process might have on their future relationships with lenders.

There has clearly been a communication breakdown. Did the country’s biggest banks fail to educate their borrowers fully on the implications of mortgage deferrals? Did brokers, overwhelmed by a surge in client requests, stumble in explaining the process to their clients? Or did borrowers rush into a program that sounded good without actually sounding it out?

 

The banks

MBN was first alerted to the possibility that Canada’s Big Six may have left borrowers misinformed about deferrals after following up on a widely-circulated CBC story about borrowers who were blindsided by the extra interest they would have to pay back to their lenders. Discussions with CIBC showed that the bank, whose client figured heavily in the CBC story, had provided customers with the option of either paying their interest off once their deferral periods ended or rolling those charges into their remaining balances. The choice was always theirs to make.

In late May, during a discussion with a GTA-based broker who wishes to remain anonymous, a similar issue arose around potential borrower misinformation.

The broker explains that a customer showed them the most recent credit report he had received from his Big Six lender. Prominently featured multiple times was the phrase “Mortgage Deferred Payment Plan”.

“This is the first time we’ve seen this on a credit report,” the broker says.

Alerting other lenders to a client’s inability to pay a mortgage is neither new nor nefarious. But it’s worth asking: How many homeowners who opted to defer their mortgages did so under the assumption that their situations would be looked at differently because COVID-19 was the sole reason behind their inability to pay? There could be thousands of homeowners now facing the prospect of dragging their damaged credit reports, which they assumed would remain healthy even after deferring their payments, to lenders who will now have far less interest in working with them.

“We can’t take this purchase to any lender, whether it’s an A-lender, a B-lender or the same lender they deferred with because now lenders see three mortgages deferred on the credit report,” the broker says.

It is possible borrowers are confused. Dave Butler of Butler Mortgage explains that credit bureaus like TransUnion and Equifax have said deferrals won’t show up as negative credit events on the credit scores they manage, but banks never made the same promise. That’s why Butler never saw deferrals as a silver bullet solution.

“Our theory was that if you go and defer a bunch of payments with, let’s say, Scotiabank, and then you go to Scotia for a refinance, that’s probably not going to look good,” he says.

MBN asked CIBC if the company had been upfront with clients about the potential impact mortgage deferrals could have on their relationship with the bank.

“Future mortgage approvals including refinancing are not affected by a client participating in the deferral program,” CIBC said in a statement.  

A Scotiabank spokesperson explained that customers who defer mortgage payments with the bank “can continue to renew or refinance their mortgage with Scotiabank during the mortgage deferral period and are subject to our standard adjudication criteria. Mortgage application and refinance decisions are based on a number of factors including income and employment status, amongst others.”

The disconnect between what the banks say, what their clients believe and what is being entered into those clients’ credit reports is a problem. While no bank can conceivably lay out every potential effect of a mortgage deferral for every client, financial institutions need to assume their clients know less than they do, not more, and provide the most stark, blatant, and easily digestible facts possible around deferrals. That includes information that might dissuade people from deferring their payments, like the potential ugly-fying of their credit reports.

 

The borrowers

Before coming down too hard on Canadian homeowners, it’s important to note how frightening a situation COVID-19 is for them. So many of them are hanging on by their fingernails, working and saving to maintain even that precarious position. If these hard-hit homeowners can put off mortgage payments at a time when their household incomes have been decimated, who says no? To many, it was the only reasonable choice.

But reason breaks down pretty quickly when the world no longer makes sense. It’s clear that some borrowers rushed into deferral programs without thinking twice about the long-term implications, such as added interest and tarnished credit reports. Others, however, have abused the system outright.

The unnamed broker says the client who was surprised by his credit report had the ability to keep making his payments, he just chose not to.

“This client deferred four mortgages,” the broker says. “Not because they needed it. It was because they thought, ‘Why not? I can create some cash flow right now.’ That’s completely the wrong reasoning for using a deferral.”

Enza Venuto of InTouch Mortgage Solutions says she has seen homeowners leverage deferrals as a way of engaging in some truly irresponsible behaviour: deferring multiple mortgages and using the funds to invest in the stock market while prices are low.

“I hear this all over,” she says. “I hope they did it right because last week the market went down again.”

What we have here is a failing of both banks and borrowers. Banks, largely due to the fees they charge clients for simply wanting to access their own money, are seen by most Canadians as predatory. When these clients have an opportunity to claw back a fraction of what they feel has been taken from them by a faceless, multi-billion-dollar corporation, some of them will. Everyone wants to feel like Robin Hood for a while.

“[Clients] basically say, ‘The bank is giving me this? Amazing. Let’s take it. Take everything,’” Venuto says.

Whether they abused the deferral system or not, it is ultimately the borrowers themselves who must take responsibility for their financial decisions. If they’re unsure about what a mortgage deferral is, there are literally thousands of brokers across the country willing to pick up the phone and talk them off the ledge. 

“If we’re smart enough to have a job and own a house, then we should be smart enough to weigh out the possible pros and cons before making rash decisions,” says Butler.

 

The brokers

Brokers have come out of the first few months of mortgage deferrals smelling awfully sweet, largely because the current situation allows them to do exactly what they’re paid for: educating consumers and providing help when the banks can’t.

Butler and Venuto were both proactive in talking to their clients and hammering home the point that mortgage deferrals are not for everyone because their long-term impact may not be positive.

“If you were a good broker, you got the message out to your customer to say, ‘No, no, no, no. Do it if you need it. If you don’t need it, don’t do it,” Butler says.

Judging by the number of Canadians who did not call a broker for help, there could be somewhat of a messaging problem that the mortgage industry should address. If Canadian borrowers don’t feel comfortable reaching out for assistance from the people who know mortgages inside and out, why is that? What barriers are preventing people from doing something as simple as picking up the phone or tapping out an email and asking an expert for advice?

Those are questions in need of speedy answers. The deferral clock is ticking, and if it strikes 12 when tens of thousands of homeowners are still unable to make their payments, there will be a level of panic the country has never seen. What kind of rushed decisions will be made then?

“When people panic, they don’t know where to turn to,” Venuto says. “When all they see is an online application and they need assistance, they click that button. They do what they have to do. “You can’t control that.”

 

Copyright © 2020 Key Media