Business leaders hail eviction ban

Rob Shaw
The Province

VICTORIA — Commercial landlords that refuse to apply for the federal assistance program to give their tenants a break on rent will be forbidden from evicting those tenants for at least the next month, says B.C.’s finance minister.

Carole James made the announcement Monday, saying members of the provincial economic recovery task force — made up of business leaders across the province — have told her they are concerned that some landlords are refusing to work with their small business tenants and instead choosing to evict them.

“There are landlords who have not applied for the relief, and unless the landlord applies for the federal program, the program isn’t available for small business tenants,” said James.

“Preventing landlords who are eligible from the program from evicting tenants can encourage landlords to apply for the program.”

The province will use its emergency powers to put the ban in place effective immediately, said James. It also means commercial landlords cannot seize the property of tenants.

The prohibition on evictions will remain as long as the federal commercial rent relief programs is in place, said James. It’s currently set to expire at the end of this month but can be extended if Ottawa extends the program as well, she said.

The Canada emergency commercial rent assistance program reduces the rent owed by small business tenants by 75 per cent. Under the program, a commercial landlord can get a non-repayable loan for up to 50 per cent of their monthly costs, if they agree to cut the rent for a tenant by 75 per cent and promise not to evict them. The small business tenant then pays the remaining 25 per cent of the rent.

The program applies to small businesses that pay less than $50,000 a month in rent and have revenue declines of at least 70 per cent due to COVID-19. Charities or non-profit organizations are also eligible.

Critics have said the program leaves tenants at the mercy of their landlords, because only landlords can apply to start the assistance program.

James said there’s no figures yet for B.C. to show how many eligible landlords have applied.

“We’ve been hearing that a number of landlords have applied on behalf of their tenants and obviously that’s the best direction, we want that relationship to be built,” said James.

“We know there are other businesses that actually have agreements with their tenants around rent deferrals. But I have to say it’s been an issue that’s been raised by members on the economic task force, we’ve heard it from small businesses and from MLAs around the province, that there are certainly some tenants who their landlords have been very clear they don’t want to bother. They don’t want to take the time to apply for the federal program.

“And that then hurts the tenants because the tenant doesn’t have the opportunity to have the relief to help them.

“So I expect it will, I hope, make a difference in encouraging landlords to apply now that they won’t be able to evict those tenants. So we’ll be watching those numbers as we go along.”

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business praised the move, noting B.C. stands out among other provinces that have resisted putting in such an eviction ban.

“We’ve been asking for it since March so I think it’s really good news and hopefully will show the way for other provinces to follow,” said Laura Jones, CFIB vice-president.

“It’s a common sense move, really. A lot of landlords and tenants are working it out with each other and many are struggling through the administrative nightmare that seems to be the CECRA (federal rent assistance) program.

“But there are a few stories, more than a handful of stories we’ve heard about, where landlords are being unreasonable with tenants. And this just gives a little bit more breathing space for tenants and landlords to work it out.”

Part of the issue is that the federal program is cumbersome and suffers from long wait times for assistance from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, which is administering the program, said Jones.

“There’s a lot of paperwork involved,” said Jones. “We’re hearing some serious nightmare stories.”

There’s also the threshold of 70 per cent lost income for eligibility, which is a much higher amount than the 30 per cent lost income that employees need to show to be eligible for personal federal financial aid. The result is many small businesses struggling to pay rent aren’t captured, said Jones.

There’s also the power imbalance of only the landlord being eligible to apply. “It gives them all the power,” said Jones. “So what B.C. did today helps balance that out a little bit because it gives the tenants back some of that power.”

The organization that represents most commercial landlords in Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria said it was surprised government moved so quickly to enact a ban when applications to the federal program only opened last week and run until August.

“It’s not like the program has been a flop,” said Damian Stathonikos, president Building Owners and Managers Association of British Columbia. “What I’ve heard from a lot of our members is they are really taking their time to talk to tenants and figure out whether this makes sense.

“Lets say you are a property owner with a couple of different buildings, it might make financial sense for one building but not another depending on the tenant mix, whether it’s a brand new building or older building, where is the location, what is the likelihood of your tenants staying in business. There’s all these factors that come in. It’s a pretty unwieldy program and a lot of paperwork involved. I was talking to one of our members today and he was thinking his final application will be more than 500 pages.”

Landlords are also concerned about potential liability, because they need to get the financial information from tenants proving the loss of 70 per cent of income due to COVID-19 and vouch for it as accurate, said Stathonikos. There’s also confusion on the rules, such as whether an application for a building with multiple tenants can be amended later to include more tenants who want to participate.

“What I’ve been hearing is people aren’t applying in droves right way because they recognize there’s a lot of paperwork right now in place and you also need a tenant that is willing to share their financial information,” said Stathonikos.

The province’s move to ban evictions in the meantime is not a surprise, he said.

“I think the province really wants to try and do everything it can to support the small business community, and frankly our members want to see their small business tenants succeed as well. It’s no one’s first choice to evict a tenant.”

The B.C. Chamber of Commerce said it also supports the eviction ban.

“Taking that option off the table for a temporary period hopefully can bring the two groups together and get some good relief going to small businesses,” said Dan Baxter, director of policy.

There are some businesses that have been able to pay their rent so far, but have now exhausted their resources, he said. “Businesses are starting to run out of cash,” said Baxter. “Most only have one to three months of operating expenses. If they are paying right now, that might not last in the future. Helping them with their rent is a good business decision most landlords would want to take advantage of.”

The Opposition Liberal party called for the eviction ban in a letter to Premier John Horgan last month. Leader Andrew Wilkinson said while the NDP has acted in this one area, it has ignored other suggestions such as a three-month pause on the provincial sales tax, hotel tax and employer health tax.

“We’ve proposed a full slate of real workable solutions for small business and the NDP have cherry picked one of them,” said Wilkinson. “But all they are planning to do is support a federal program that’s not working.”

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc

West Van condo tower sees fast sales during pandemic

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

Launched in the teeth of a pandemic, a new 122-unit luxury condominium tower in West Vancouver has pre-sold 54 condos in the last month, including a $6 million penthouse, and the head of its marketing team suggest the success is more than a geographic anomaly.

The Sentinel project has been working through the planning process since 2015, noted Cameron McNeill, a partner in MLA Canada, and is the first condo tower approved in central West Vancouver in years.

“A lot of people were aware of the Sentinel for a long time,” McNeill said, and signage had been posted along Marine Drive for months. 

A presentation centre was built, but only a few serious buyers ever visited it due to the COVID-19 restrictions on distancing, McNeill explained. Virtually all of the sales were done through online marketing, 3D presentations and virtual meetings, he said, in cooperation with a network of North Shore real estate agents. 

“The sales are pretty fantastic considering what has been happening over the past 30 days,” McNeill said, adding that all the buyers were locals.

Even before the pandemic, monthly sales of existing condos in West Vancouver rarely rose above nine units, according to data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) 

At 26 storeys, the Sentinel is the tallest building in West Vancouver. It is located in the Lions Gate Village area, just east of Park Royal shopping centre. The May marketing plan released 66 condos on alternate floors after a 200-person focus group of potential buyers confirmed interest in the project, McNeil said,

The average price of the 54 condos sold is $980,000 and the average per-square-foot price is $1,380, not counting the penthouses and sub-penthouses that start north of $1.5 million. Aside from spectacular views, the tower has air conditioning, high speed elevators and upscale spa and lounge facilities among its luxury features.

With the performance of the first phase, MLA  is now releasing the remaining units and Denna Homes will begin construction this summer. Completion is expected late in 2022, seven years after the project was first presented to West Vancouver council.

McNeill said other new projects his team is marketing are also seeing stronger pre-sales than expected, especially Surrey and Langley townhouse developments, where he said buyers, mostly young families, are “very active.”

Metro Vancouver housing sales reached 1,485 homes in May 2020, a 33.9 per cent increase from April, reports the REBGV. Sales were down 43.7 per cent from May of 2019, but the composite benchmark price is 2.9 per cent higher than a year ago at $1.02 million. 

McNeill urged caution for developers. He said the return to a pre-COVID-19 sales activity may take six to 12 months and many buyers remain reticent about the housing market.

“The people who believe in the long term for Canada and [Metro]Vancouver are the ones who are buying real estate now,”he said.

Copyright © Western Investor

Surrey 150 acres acquired by Beech Westgard one of B.C. largest land plays

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

This January the City of Surrey’s planned $3.1billion Surrey-Langley SkyTrain extension received the support of Metro Vancouver mayors and, while all the money has not yet been approved, the concept has triggered one of the largest land plays in British Columbia.

Surrey projections are that the new SkyTrain corridor will see a population increase of at least 120,000 people over the next two decades, translating into tens of thousands of homes and corresponding retail and workspace development.

Currently, only $1.63 billion has been allocated to the first phase, which will extend the SkyTrain Expo Line seven kilometres down Fraser Highway from King George Station to 164 Street. Another nine-kilometre, four-station second phase extension to Langley will need $1.5 billion.

“Through this agreement, the City of Surrey is committing that new and updated land use plans will incorporate land uses, densities and forms of residential tenure which result in planned population and job growth that exceeds the population and job projections,” stated the business case summary.

The Skytrain corridor will run through Clayton Heights and Fleetwood but also includes Surrey’s 1,008-acre rural enclave of Anniedale-Tynehead, characterized today by small farms, often with realtor signs planted by the dusty driveways. 

The land rush is exemplified by developer Beech Westgard which has acquired 150 acres in Anniedale-Tynehead and has fronted a $35 million bond to install essential infrastructure for a masterplan development. The land assembly involved a number of realtors, led by Dimple Gill, vice-president of Oakwyn Marketing of Vancouver.

Gill explained that the lack of servicing was the biggest hurdle to getting development moving, but the city of Surrey and smaller developers did not or could not pay for it.

“We now have the critical mass necessary,” he explained.

Other developers close to the Beech Westgard main trunk lines will be able to hook to it, for a fee, Gill explained.

It is expected to take 18 months for the sewers and other services to be in place, which is also about the time the City of Surrey is expected to have updated the zoning and density for the area from its original draft nearly a decade ago.

Gill said Beech Westgard’s masterplan does not require SkyTrain to make it a success, noting the area is already close to freeways, has sites approved for schools, and is in B.C.’s fastest-growing municipalities.

Meanwhile, many of those holding small acreages in the Anniedale-Tynehead area are hoping to cash in.

Gill said land prices in Anniedale achieved $2.6 million per acre just over a year ago. With the services now going in, he expects that price will reach $3.5 million or more per acre over “the next year or so” as the services are completed.

 

Copyright © Western Investor

Purchase inquiries flourishing despite pressure from COVID-19 – RE/MAX

Ephraim Vecina
Mortgage Broker News

Despite the widespread mobility restrictions brought about by the coronavirus outbreak, the frequency of homebuying inquiries has gone up in Western Canada, according to RE/MAX.

“We are already seeing inquiries from home buyers up 5% from pre-COVID levels,” said Elton Ash, executive vice president (Western Canada) with RE/MAX. “To see the price drop that CMHC is suggesting is unrealistic.”

Ash was referring to the Crown corporation’s dire predictions of a “historic recession” this year that will lead to an 18% fall-off in home prices and a 29% sales decline – forecasts that multiple industry players have contested.

“Yes, there has been some economic pain, but not to the extent that CMHC is suggesting,” Ash said, pointing at Vancouver’s robust pre-pandemic sales as a likely sign of strong sales recovery down the line.

Pent-up demand for homes might become the defining feature of top markets like BC and Ontario immediately after the crisis has passed, RE/MAX said in early May.

Figures from the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) supported these projections: In April, the province’s benchmark housing price posted a 7.8% annual increase, while overall inventory fell by almost 25%.

“We should be happy sales only fell by 50% when you consider this is a global pandemic,” BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson told Business in Vancouver.

Copyright © 2020 Key Media

China’s real-estate investors down on Vancouver, but not out

Douglas Todd
The Vancouver Sun

Huawei CEO Meng Wenghzou must stay under mansion arrest following this week’s court decision in Vancouver. China’s authorities rage, while continuing to unfairly jail Michael Spavor and Michael Korvig and drastically cut imports of Canadian canola.

Rival ethnic Chinese groups clash in the streets of Vancouver over Beijing’s clampdown on Hong Kongers’ freedoms. COVID-19 kills more than 6,800 across Canada and lockdown virtually ends international travel, sending home many of China’s foreign students, especially from Toronto and Vancouver.

China-Canada relations are at their lowest ebb in decades, particularly according to China’s pervasive regime-backed media outlets, which this week called Canada a “pathetic clown.”

And that has implications for Metro Vancouver’s housing market.

This region of 2.6 million is feeling the impact of soured relations with China, even while polling suggests the city continues to retain some of its traditional allure to the world’s most populous country as a desirable place to experience and invest in.

In addition to geo-political tensions, however, it must be said that Metro Vancouver’s real-estate market has also lost some of its global appeal because of financial trends. Real-estate prices have fallen in many parts of the West, especially in the Lower Mainland. That’s while housing values have been rising in China.

Let’s look closer at what’s leading China’s upper- and middle-classes to steer away from buying into Metro Vancouver real estate like they once did.

China’s investors are also this year not pouring the same billions into high-end commercial or residential properties in adjacent Hong Kong, which has up until now been the top investment destination for China’s wealthy.

One reason for China’s investors pulling back is their rising suspicion of the West, including because of the erratic ways the U.S., some European countries, Canada and others have handled the coronavirus outbreak.

Although the World Health Organization and other health experts say COVID19 emerged in Wuhan, China’s state media claims the country has kept a better lid on it than the West. That’s lead to nervousness among many Chinese citizens about getting sick abroad, as well as fear about being blamed for spreading the virus.

The South China Morning Post, for one, has been talking to rich and middle-class people around China and discovering they’re losing their appetite for buying real-estate “investment vehicles” in the West, in part because of such COVID-19-related fears and mistrust.

That goes with their weakening desire to send children to study in English-speaking countries, where many became involved in real-estate on behalf of their families. At the end of 2019 there were 640,000 students from China around the world, 144,000 of whom were in Canada and 50,000 in B.C.

In addition, however, an equally strong force that is diminishing Chinese people’s interest in buying Metro Vancouver’s pricey houses and condominiums, according to the Hurun Report, is that the city doesn’t offer the same profits it once did.

Housing values have dipped in Metro Vancouver since 2016, when buyers from China were deeply engaged in pumping up the city’s luxury market. And the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicted this week prices could fall an additional nine to 18 per cent in Canada because of the pandemic, and even slightly more in British Columbia.

Bigger real-estate profits are to be made in China.

The widely read Hurun Report is considered an authority on what it calls “China’s high-net-worth individuals.” And its 2020 report said, even before COVID hit, that China’s rich were finding some of the most rewarding real-estate ventures were in their own country.

“Twenty-seven Chinese cities entered the top 50 cities (around the world) with the highest house price increases,” said this year’s Hurun Report. Many of those Chinese cities had values leap 35 to 45 per cent over just three years. There’s no suggestion such hefty profit margins are being seriously dented by COVID-19.

Much of the sharp rise in China’s real-estate prices is the result of its authorities becoming more intent about enforcing a US$50,000 a person limit on the movement of funds out of the country – and banning the widespread use of credit cards, including China’s UnionPay, for buying foreign real estate.

Vancouver realtor David Hutchinson said this week that, for many of the reasons mentioned here, “China is not coming” to local real estate like it once did. “That ship has sailed.”

His perspective echoes that of West Vancouver realtor Nicole Lee, who said earlier that many rich clients from China are looking elsewhere now that B.C. has brought in a foreign-buyers tax on housing, along with a speculation and vacancy tax.

However, even though Metro Vancouver and its real estate might be down in the minds of many of China’s wealthy, they’re definitely not out.

Although five years ago China’s rich ranked Metro Vancouver as the third most desirable city in the world for “overseas property purchases,” this year’s Hurun Report says they still rate this relatively small city on the West Coast of Canada as seventh.

In addition, the Hurun Report says China’s high-net-worth parents pick Canada as their fourth favourite place to send their children for an education. As well, out of the 10 million Mainland Chinese who are transnational migrants, according to the Migration Policy Institute, half have ended up in Hong Kong and the U.S., while Canada has been, and remains, their third most popular choice, with Australia fourth.

There are now more than 500,000 ethnic Chinese people in Metro Vancouver, the majority, because of recent migration trends, from China. They can find familiarity in the city’s vibrant ethnic Chinese supermarkets, retail outlets, entertainment, restaurants and housing.

There might not be quite the tremendous volume of money coming out of China into Canada’s property market as there has been in the past two decades, but streams of Chinese capital are sure to continue to make their way across the Pacific.

That should be the case despite the tensions wrought by COVID-19 lockdowns, Huawei controversies, Hong Kong clashes and even a stumbling local real-estate market.

© 2020 Vancouver Sun

Panatch Group launches second phase of Port Moody’s 50 Electronic Avenue

Michael Bernard
The Province

It is every developer’s nightmare. You have everything in place for your opening day, and then your plans are dashed by an event completely beyond your control. With COVID-19 and the public safety orders banning events of more than 50 people, you have the makings of a true catastrophe.

It could have turned out that way for Kush Panatch and the March 21 launch of the second phase of his multi-unit residential development 50 Electronic Avenue in Port Moody, except that this developer has shown an uncanny ability to adapt to change.

The Panatch Group’s challenge was to address the need for people to socially distance while giving them a close-up look at a new home. “Some people wanted to get full information on what was available but were uncomfortable coming in (to the sales centre). So what do we show people?  We came up with the idea of hiring a professional videographer and featuring Jody Jobber, our sales director, conducting a virtual tour of the presentation suite.”

The result was a guided tour that was made available online. “Jody was nervous at first and had never done anything like that, but we told her to think of how she would do it if a real person was present,” said Panatch. That, combined with a robust list of more than 8,000 people who had registered their interest in the 358 homes in the two-stage development, led to an enviable start to the sales campaign. In less than two weeks, Panatch had 46 signed sales.

But that ability to act quickly isn’t the only reason 50 Electronic Avenue—named in honour of the radio and TV manufacturer, Chisholm Industries that produced products at the location for decades—has done so well. In fact, the seeds of success were sown more than 22 years ago when Panatch bought a 3.5-acre parcel of industrial land opposite Port Moody’s downtown. At that time it was simply a big industrial area with a sawmill, but Panatch saw the potential, even before the Westcoast Express and SkyTrain’s Evergreen Line hastened Port Moody’s development.

Story continues below

Even as phase-one sales were progressing two years ago, the company was taking careful note of what buyers wanted in condo living. Panatch began tinkering with the project’s second-phase plans, especially after being pleasantly surprised by the resounding success of one particular type of unit.

 “In phase one, we were blown away because in the first week we sold every one of our rooftop units,” Panatch said. “We always suspected we had the demand for that, but we never anticipated the strength of it. We had 24 rooftop units, and ended up with 34 offers. So, for our second phase we made some design changes, moved around units and ended up increasing the number of rooftop units to 32 from the original 14 planned.” With their private fenced and landscaped spaces accessed through a vertical door at the top of a flight of stairs, the units have been “over-the-top popular.”

The other change the company made was to increase the number of four-bedroom units in the second phase. Historically, such larger units have proved more difficult for developers to sell, but Panatch believes there is an increased demand for such larger spaces. He has found that baby boomers appear more willing to make the transition to condo life from single family homes if they are offered the space they need. 50 Electronic Avenue, for instance, offers suites as large as 1,635 square feet.

Nevertheless, the majority of suites offered at 50 Electronic Avenue are smaller in size. About 30 per cent are one-bedroom and one-bedroom and den homes, 60 per cent are two-bedroom or two-bedroom and den, with the remaining 10 per cent three- and four-bedroom models. The second phase has attracted a broad range of buyers, Panatch said. They include a 21-year-old professional who bought a home with some family help and young married couples from Yaletown and Burnaby’s Brentwood Town Centre seeking to start a family, to older retired couples downsizing from single-family homes in Port Moody.

Also attractive to buyers is the development’s close proximity to rapid transit, and the popularity of nearby amenities such as Rocky Point Park and the budding Brewery District. It also helps that 50 Electronic Avenue has a 9,000-square-foot, three-storey amenity centre called Club 50, which boasts a fitness facility, rooms for yoga and bike repairs, a dog wash, an arcade space, media room, social lounge with a large patio and a guest suite for visiting family and friends. There is also a one-acre, elevated private backyard with lawns, courtyards, urban gardens with water features, and a children’s playground. A feature popular with those in the ‘gig economy’ is co-working spaces with two boardrooms.

The homes, designed by Ciccozzi Architecture, have open floorplans with nine-foot ceilings. BYU Design has incorporated laminate wood flooring throughout, an integrated designer wardrobe with drawers in the master bedroom and closets with custom millwork organizers. The suites’ private deck or patio features power outlets and gas connections.

In the kitchen is a premium Bosch high-performance, stainless steel wall oven, a 30-inch gas cooktop, and a 36-inch Fisher & Paykel French door refrigerator with icemaker panelled to match the cabinetry. Also standard are a Bosch ultra-quiet dishwasher with custom panel, a Panasonic stainless steel microwave and a stainless steel Venmar hood fan. Polished quartz countertops are finished with a waterfall edge and there is a custom millwork pantry.

The bathrooms have a designer floating vanity, a large framed mirror with medicine cabinet and Soho white hexagon porcelain tile flooring. There is a frameless, clear tempered glass shower with handheld showerhead in the ensuite bathroom and a deep bathtub with handheld showerhead.

50 Electronic Avenue, Port Moody

Project address: 50 Electronic Ave., Port Moody

Project scale: Phase 2 of this 358-unit development consists of 220 woodframe homes, ranging from a one bedroom at 583 sq. ft. to four-bedroom plans at 1,635 sq. ft. Close to shopping, SkyTrain and West Coast Express and seaside amenities such as Rocky Point Park. Amenities include the 9,000-sq.-ft. three-storey “Club 50,” offering a fitness facility, dog wash, guest suite, bike repair rooms and co-working spaces, plus a one-acre elevated backyard with five distinct courtyards.

Prices: From $459,900

Developer: Panatch Group

Architect: Ciccozzi Architecture

Interior Design: BYU Design

Sales centre: 50 Electronic Avenue, Port Moody

Centre hours:  12 noon to 5 p.m. (by appointment only during COVID-19 social distancing).  Virtual appointments and tours available as well.

Sales phone: (604) 492-2202

Website: www.50electronicave.com

Completion Date: Late 2022

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc

Dire predictions for house-price drops

Joanne Lee-Young
The Province

Canada’s national housing agency is continuing its grim forecasts for how hard the COVID-19 pandemic will hit home sales, prices and construction, including sharp drops for B.C.

But one local realtor said many people in the local real estate sector and construction industry believe Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is being too pessimistic.

Last week, CMHC CEO Evan Siddall told a parliamentary committee that Canadian house prices could drop by as much as a 18 per cent.

He also said that 20 per cent of mortgage holders who are deferring payments could be in arrears at the end of September, when the COVID-19 deferral period finishes, if the economy doesn’t improve.

He said Vancouver could be one of the hardest-hit places, along with Toronto and Alberta.

On Wednesday, the CMHC said home prices in B.C. could drop by 10 to 19 per cent  from pre-pandemic levels, slightly exceeding its forecast range for home prices across Canada of nine to 18 per cent.

It said home sales in B.C. could decline by 15 to 25 per cent and housing starts could drop from 44 to 64 per cent, compared to national forecasts of home sales dropping 19 to 29 per cent and housing starts dropping 50 to 75 per cent from pre-pandemic levels.

But one realtor said many in the real estate and construction industry are still “classically optimistic” and insist they are still seeing demand for housing in Metro Vancouver.

“I think everybody wants to keep the market healthy and churning, and when these reports come out, all they see is that it puts hesitation in buyers’ psyche,” said agent Steve Saretsky.

He said some are calling the CMHC predictions ridiculous. “I’m not sure if they are just saying that to me, or if they actually believe it.”

As for himself, Saretsky thinks it’s unusual for a cautious, crown corporation like CMHC, which oversees the entire mortgage market, to be overly negative in its forecasts unless it needed to be.

Immigration is often cited by the real estate industry as being a resilient, driving factor in major housing markets such as Vancouver, but CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said that “with the (travel) restrictions on the movement of people, immigration is effectively slowed down dramatically.”

He said that, in the optimistic view, when travel restrictions are lifted, immigration can return, but in the pessimistic view that changes if there are “repeated waves (of infections) and further lock downs.”

Dugan said there isn’t a “lot of data yet on the impact of the coronavirus on the Canadian economy, but we do have some early indicators that the impacts are fairly significant.”

As for the spectre of mortgage deferrals becoming arrears, Dugan said statistics show over three million jobs have been lost, causing the unemployment rate to rise from 5.6 per cent in February to over 13 per cent in April.

“While employment decreased by three million people, the number of unemployed only increased by less than 1.3 million,” said Dugan. The gap “is created by the fact that many people who have lost their jobs have left the labour force and are not actively looking for work, and therefore are not counted as unemployed.”

Corrected for this, the unemployment rate in April would be 20 per cent.

“This doesn’t really count for the fact that many other people who remained employed either had to have their hours reduced and had much lower income than they would have had before the onset of the pandemic.”

© 2020 Postmedia Network Inc