Canada’s small housing markets may see 20% price jump in 2022

Michelle McNally
Livabl

 The allure of small town living — whether it be cheaper real estate prices or peace and quiet in the outdoors — continues to draw Canadian homebuyers. The demand for properties in smaller communities is creating a boom in local housing markets, a trend that could cause property prices to rise as high as 20 per cent in some areas this year.

This week, RE/MAX Canada released its 2022 Small Markets Report, which examines home sales and price patterns in Canada’s fastest-growing small housing markets, communities that have a population under 440,000 but reported the highest population growth rates in 2021.

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All small markets analyzed in RE/MAX Canada’s report will see prices climb within the average range of three per cent to 20 per cent in 2022 thanks to low inventory and growing demand. Some small communities have already seen their prices jump between 17 per cent to 46 per cent year-over-year within the first business quarter.

Livability in small communities have played a nearly equal role in attracting new residents and homebuyers as affordable home prices have. Quality of life factors are drawing many Canadian homebuyers to small markets (40 per cent), slightly more than housing affordability (37 per cent).

“Despite the fact that the national housing market still has challenges to overcome, smaller communities are viable options for Canadian homebuyers looking for the right balance between liveability and affordability,” said Christopher Alexander, president of RE/MAX Canada, in the report. “The increase anticipated for home prices for the remainder of 2022 by our network of brokers and agents is a good indicator of the appeal of these communities.”

Prices in small Nova Scotia communities could see 20% growth

By the end of 2022, prices in some smaller Canadian communities will have seen double-digit growth.

RE/MAX Canada is projecting that home prices in Truro, Nova Scotia will rise 20 per cent by year-end to $361,557. In Q1-2022, average prices in Truro increased 46 per cent from Q1-2021, rising from $206,987 to $301,298. Between the same quarters, annual sales only rose one per cent, but are expected to climb 25 per cent by the end of 2022.

Following closely behind Truro, average residential prices in Halifax are anticipated to increase 19 per cent by year-end, having already grown 26 per cent between Q1-2021 and Q1-2022. Out-of-province buyers are driving sales activity in Atlantic Canada as they hunt for affordable homes compared to larger city centres in other provinces. RE/MAX Canada says its brokers and agents anticipate homes will continue to be sought after by outer-province purchasers and immigrants.

  Chart: RE/MAX Canada

Ontario communities such as Oshawa, Carlton Place and Arnprior are expected to see their average home prices rise 15 per cent each by the end of the year, up to $1,204,873, $776,086 and $689,897, respectively. Affordability has also been a major factor in prompting out-of-town buyers to relocate in Ontario, especially in smaller communities that offer infrastructure and public transportation to commute to work in the city.

In British Columbia, Cranbrook and Kelowna will see the largest increases to their average home prices by the conclusion of 2022, rising 10 per cent and five per cent to $411,301 and $1,013,447. Over in Alberta, Brooks could record a 10 per cent increase in home prices this year, pushing the average to $344,296. While many Western Canada markets continue to welcome out-of-province purchasers, buyer confidence has improved, resulting in less urgency to purchase a home and fewer bidding wars.

28% of people living in larger markets would move to smaller one

Many Canadians have made the move to smaller markets, and more could be on the way.

According to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada, 23 per cent of respondents moved from a larger Canadian housing market during the pandemic to a smaller one. Eight-five per cent say that they are happy about their move, while 52 per cent of Canadians who relocated to a small town believe their mental health has improved after doing so. More than a quarter of people living in larger markets (28 per cent) say that they would like to move to a smaller community in the next two years according to the survey.

Financial support from family has been a key helping hand in getting Canadians into smaller property markets. The Leger survey found that a quarter (25 per cent) of respondents are using financial support from family in order to purchase a home. RE/MAX brokers and agents in 83 per cent of regions surveyed have also noted this trend at the local level.

The flexibility of working from home has allowed some home purchasers to access smaller real estate markets without the need to be close to the office. This trend doesn’t appear to be fading even as offices open up as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted. The ability to work from home has motivated 14 per cent of Canadians to move to a smaller community, and 11 per cent of those surveyed indicated that if their employer requires them to return to work in-person, they would look for another job in order to stay in their small community.

While the desire for small town living is high, local residents are feeling the anxiety of rising prices in their community. More than half (57 per cent) of residents in small Canadian real estate markets have voiced concern that the liveability qualities of their town “may be eroded,” from higher demand from move-over buyers. Forty-three per cent of those polled also shared the same anxiety about rising home prices and the potential for them to be priced out of their community.

 

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

OPINION: Vancouvers Broadway Plan: opportunities and the unknown

Jessica Hathaway
Western Investor

More than half the properties along Broadway will need to be assembled to meet the minimum frontage required for redevelopment under the plan

 After years of anticipation, the latest version of the Broadway Plan will go Vancouver City Council on May 18. The plan, which provides direction on redevelopment potential for the area, offers significant increases in height and density for office, retail, hotel, rental residential and condo use. With aims to boost the corridor’s population from 78,000 residents to 128,000 and create an additional 42,00 jobs over the next 30 years, the Broadway Plan is the city’s largest comprehensive area plan undertaken to date. The plan would not immediately change the underlying zoning for specific sites, but its new policies would create opportunities for larger kinds of development in many areas, each of which would then need rezoning.

This much is known: the plan recommends the most density near the subway stations, with mixed-use developments up to 40 storeys combining residential and commercial space. It will pave the way for apartment buildings up to six storeys on side streets, and up to 18 storeys in select locations for buildings with below-market rental units.

What is not known: its impact on residential affordability, long-term effects on the office market, and how it will change the retail face of Broadway  – which has been in dire need of revitalization for years.

City planning staff have done a remarkable job putting forth a plan that is balanced in it approach to providing density in transit-oriented locations while respecting the requests of nearby residential neighborhoods – including a reduction in height from the previous refined directions plans. That being said, at the time of writing, there are a number of unknowns which could impact the success of the plan’s implementation:

• Community amenity contributions (CACs). CACs are yet to be defined and will have an impact on the development feasibility of condo sites. Although commercial development pays a low standardized CAC fee per square foot, those applicable to strata residential density tend to be much higher. If the City sets the CAC too high, fewer condo projects will actually be financially feasible and will therefore be unlikely to proceed. With fewer new condos developed and built along the corridor, the city will not be able to provide the supply necessary and the promised vitality of the area may be threatened.

• Minimum frontage. According to the draft plan, a minimum frontage of 150 feet will be required for redevelopment to the density stipulated in the plan. Given the number of small 50- foot lots along the corridor, over half of the properties on Broadway will require assembly amongst multiple property owners with different motivations – making redevelopment less likely. The development community is still awaiting confirmation on whether or not these properties will be allowed to proceed at a higher density or if they’ll be required to maintain the density as per the current C-3A zoning bylaw.

• Shadowing. The development community is also awaiting final direction on the City’s shadowing policy, which had a major impact on developments in the West End Community Plan and resulted in height reductions on a number of developments that potentially shadowed parks or high-street shopping areas. A strict shadowing policy would reduce the number of units to be delivered through the plan and would threaten the potential future housing supply.

Long-term, the impact for development in this area is significant and the influx of condo and rental units would contribute to much-needed future housing supply to meet the demands of Vancouver’s growing population. With immigration expected to increase in the years to come, creating suitable housing for new residents will be crucial in creating a healthy and thriving economy.

In addition to creating more housing supply, the plan provides great opportunities to increase the vitality of the area with potential to build dynamic new office space, as well as for revitalized retail and hotels. Overall, the plan does a great job of placemaking and protecting neighborhood high streets along 4th Ave, South Granville and Main Street, while adding density in other transit-oriented areas.

The long-awaited Broadway Plan is the next step in investing in a future that will bring jobs and new life to what some are calling Vancouver’s second downtown. Although it has been met with open arms from the real estate community, direction on the factors mentioned above will have a huge impact on whether future projects actually get built.

If Vancouver approves the plan in May, applications on the first developments will likely be accepted shortly thereafter for planning staff’s consideration. However, if a conclusion cannot be reached by this council in the months to come, the fate of the plan will likely be decided upon in the new year after council reconvenes following October’s election.

• Jessica Hathaway is an associate vice president at Colliers International and has been working in Vancouver’s Broadway Corridor for the past 10  years.

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Sharp interest rate hike erodes margins, threatens recession

Peter Mitham
Western Investor

While commercial real estate players had expected interest rate hikes, the speed of the increase caught some off guard

 Benjamin Tal of CIBC tells Real Estate Forum “Your enemy is not higher interest rates. Your enemy is rapidly rising interest rates.” | Vancouver Real Estate Forum

Rising interest rates were a hot topic at the Vancouver Real Estate Forum on April 12, figuring into discussions of housing prices, affordability and investor returns.

“We’re seeing some impact right now, but I would suggest that it’s more tied to the investor buyer pool,” said Rowan Hicks, industrial sales director with Beedie.

Rising ownership costs have made many buyers think twice before jumping in, and rising financing costs are just one more variable to consider as they weigh deals. While real estate tends to hold value over the long-term, especially in constrained markets like Vancouver, financing costs eat into margins.

“Increasing interest rates are just further eroding returns,” Hicks said.

And those costs took a leap the following day as the Bank of Canada’s announced its biggest interest rate hike in 22 years. The bank’s overnight rate is now 1 per cent, double the rate set March 3, which itself doubled the 0.25 per cent rate in place since March 27, 2020.

While the jump is dramatic, the real risk isn’t the size but the speed of the increase.

“Your enemy is not higher interest rates. Your enemy is rapidly rising interest rates,” CIBC deputy chief economist and managing director Benjamin Tal told forum participants on Tuesday morning.

“Today the market is pricing in a situation in which the Federal Reserve [in the U.S.] and the Bank of Canada will rise to about 3.4 per cent,” he said. “That’s a very, very aggressive move, and 85 per cent to 90 per cent of this move will be in 2022 – the next eight months.”

Tal said he would prefer to see a short, sharp hike, followed by a pause to assess its impacts. An increase to 2.25 per cent, what he called the “neutral rate,” would likely be enough to rein in inflation and stabilize the economy.

“With the increased sensitivity to higher interest rates, that might be enough. You go beyond that and you risk a recession in 2023,” he said.

A recession would further complicate the recovery from the pandemic, but it’s a real risk, he said.

“Every economic recession over the past 40, 50 years was helped if not caused by a monetary policy error in which central bankers raised interest rates way too quickly,” he said. “We are facing that risk.”

Rising interest rates also create an opportunity for alternative lenders to enter the market, a phenomenon that’s frequently he concern of regulators.

“When interest rates go down, they get out of the market, when they go up and the market is tighter, they are in the market,” Tal said. “I expect the share of MICs and private lending to rise over the next two years.”

According to Statistics Canada’s survey of non-bank mortgage lenders, non-bank lenders other than credit unions held $112.1 billion worth of residential mortgages in the third quarter of 2021.

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Bank of Canada raises rates .5 per cent

Livabl Staff
Livabl

 Canada’s central bank raised its key lending rate by .5 per cent, bringing it to 1 per cent.

This follows a .25 hike when it last met last month. The lending rate is important because it sets the direction for the major banks, raising the cost of borrowing for consumers and making it more expensive to take out a new mortgage.

The bank’s primary motivation in raising its rate is to get a handle on inflation, which has been running hot in Canada and around the world. It wants to keep the rate of inflation around 2 per cent, but according to Statistics Canada the annual pace rose to 5.7 per cent in February from 5.1 per cent in January.

Here’s the full text from its release: 

“The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1¼% and the deposit rate at 1%. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet will no longer be replaced and, as a result, the size of the balance sheet will decline over time.

Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty. Price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world. Supply disruptions resulting from the war are also exacerbating ongoing supply constraints and weighing on activity. These factors are the primary drivers of a substantial upward revision to the Bank’s outlook for inflation in Canada.

The war in Ukraine is disrupting the global recovery, just as most economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. European countries are more directly impacted by confidence effects and supply dislocations caused by the war. China’s economy is facing new COVID outbreaks and an ongoing correction in its property market. In the United States, domestic demand remains very strong and the US Federal Reserve has clearly indicated its resolve to use its monetary policy tools to control inflation. As policy stimulus is withdrawn, US growth is expected to moderate to a pace more in line with potential growth. Global financial conditions have tightened and volatility has increased. The Bank now forecasts global growth of about 3½% this year, 2½% in 2023 and 3¼% in 2024.

In Canada, growth is strong and the economy is moving into excess demand. Labour markets are tight, and wage growth is back to its pre-pandemic pace and rising. Businesses increasingly report they are having difficulty meeting demand, and are able to pass on higher input costs by increasing prices. While the COVID-19 virus continues to mutate and circulate, high rates of vaccination have reduced its health and economic impacts. Growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in January and is likely to pick up in the second quarter. Consumer spending is strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures. Exports and business investment will continue to recover, supported by strong foreign demand and high commodity prices. Housing market activity, which has been exceptionally high, is expected to moderate.

The Bank forecasts that Canada’s economy will grow by 4¼% this year before slowing to 3¼% in 2023 and 2¼% in 2024. Robust business investment, labour productivity growth and higher immigration will add to the economy’s productive capacity, while higher interest rates should moderate growth in domestic demand.

CPI inflation in Canada is 5.7%, above the Bank’s forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Inflation is being driven by rising energy and food prices and supply disruptions, in combination with strong global and domestic demand. Core measures of inflation have all moved higher as price pressures broaden. CPI inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above the control range throughout this year. It is then expected to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 and return to the 2% target in 2024. There is an increasing risk that expectations of elevated inflation could become entrenched. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.

With the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, and quantitative tightening will complement increases in the policy rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

 

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

B.C. reports over 11,400 homes sold in March: BCREA

Michelle McNally
Livabl

 

Last month, upwards of 11,400 homes traded hands across British Columbia, but levels have fallen from the record highs set in March 2021.

In a statistics release, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reported that 11,463 total properties were sold through the province’s MLS system during March. This marks a 24.1 per cent decrease from the same month last year when 15,096 homes were sold.

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Greater Vancouver recorded the most homes sold in March, with 4,405 properties trading hands. Home sales in Chilliwack reported the biggest year-over-year change as sales fell 41.1 per cent from 672 to 396 transactions in a year.

“Home sales in the province continue to moderate from record highs of this time last year,” said BCREA’s chief economist, Brendon Ogmundson, in a press release. “Given the sharp rise in Canadian mortgage rates and expected tightening from the Bank of Canada, activity will likely slow further in the second half of this year.”

The Bank of Canada is expected to announce its next policy rate decision on April 13th, which could heighten rates by 0.5 per cent.

Active listings fall as prices continue to rise

When it comes to home supply, provincial active listings were 12.4 per cent lower in March compared to the same month in 2021, falling from 22,394 to 19,618 active listings in a year. The number of active listings increased the most in Powell River, growing 134 per cent annually to 96 listings.

However, the total inventory of homes available for sale in B.C. is now under 20,000 units, well below the 40,000 listings needed to foster a balanced housing market. The sales-to-active-listings percentage for B.C. decreased annually last month, falling from 67.4 per cent in March 2021 to 58.4 per cent in March 2022.

The average home price reported over the B.C. MLS was $1.096 million last month, up 15.7 per cent from $946,813 recorded in March 2021. Powell River reported the most price growth, where the average cost of a home climbed 40.6 per cent from $522,450 to $734,454 over a year. All B.C. real estate boards reported an increase in average home prices last month with the exception of South Peace, where prices fell 22.4 per cent yearly from $328,743 to $255,063.

By total sales volume, $12.6 billion worth of real estate was exchanged last month, a 12.1 per cent decline from the same period a year ago when $14.2 billion in sales was transacted.

Year-to-date, B.C. residential sales dollar volume has decreased 4.1 per cent from $30 billion in March 2021 to $28.8 billion as of last month. Residential unit sales were down 20.1 per cent year-to-date to 26,577 units as the average MLS residential price increased 20 per cent to $1.086 million.

 

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

Bank of Canada Raises Interest Rates: What it Means for Home Buyers and Sellers

Daniel Crook
other

Cybersecurity in the real estate industry: are you prepared?

Corben Grant
other

With the world of business moving deeper every day into the digital realm, cybersecurity is more important for businesses now than ever. This is especially true for real estate organizations that can possess large amounts of sensitive data for both employees and clients. Cyberattacks can be debilitating for companies and lead to loss of data, time, and potentially a lot of money. Are you prepared to defend against cyber threats in the modern world?

We spoke with Patrick Bourk, National Cyber Practice Leader at HUB International in Canada. Bourk is an insurance expert who specializes in cyber liability insurance. In addition, he serves as an advisor, speaker, and instructor on the topic. 

The threat of cybersecurity may seem like something out of a Hollywood movie, but in reality, it is an ever-present concern for all businesses in Canada. And, Bourk warns, threats are now on the rise.

“There’s no question that cyberattacks have been on the rise. We’ve been seeing it for quite some time. There are a lot of attacks that make the headlines that people will hear about, but to be honest, the more challenging ones are the ones that you don’t read about,” said Bourk. “Large organizations quite frankly have the balance sheet to be able to deal with some sort of a cybersecurity incident, whether it’s the cost of restoring their systems, restoring their data from backups, or heaven forbid, having to make a ransomware payment to threat actors.”

“But it’s some of the smaller organizations such as smaller real estate brokers or real estate agencies who are holding on to sensitive information. If that’s somehow compromised, the cost of restoring everything that could be really devastating.”

Though real estate organizations are at risk, Bourk says that cyber-attacks “have an impact on all sorts of different industries. The cyber threat actors are quite frankly, agnostic. They don’t necessarily care about who you are. The whole game is to get in, to disrupt, to make your life miserable and then monetize from it.”

The exact sources of cyber threats are intentionally hard to place. In general, they are not commonly coming from domestic sources. Rather, they tend to be coming from distant countries that may be more willing to turn a blind eye to malicious cyber attacks. Some noted sources include Iran, North Korea, and Russia. The latter especially so, as the invasion of Ukraine continues to rage, experts are now warning of the potential for retaliatory cyber-attacks on western nations. Whether or not threat actors are state-sponsored is not necessarily clear, however, the damage done is impactful either way.

In terms of what a cyber-attack can look like, a very common technique is known as ransomware. Bourk describes how invaders can compromise security systems, laying low until they are able to strike. Data can be stolen, computers can be locked out, or networks can be disabled, and the threat actors will offer to restore them – for a price. 

“Once they’ve managed to get in, they slam the door as they’re leaving and drop some sort of encryption that will lock everything up within the system. It’s then that the clients will receive this wonderful notice: “Hey, we’ve accessed your system. We’ve locked everything down and you’re not going to be able to get access to it unless you pay some sort of a ransom”

“I think the average ransomware payout is a couple hundred thousand dollars, but we see incidents where it’s a lot bigger than that. We’ve had clients deal with multimillion-dollar ransomware attacks, for which they have to make the tough decision to pay or not.&rdquo

In his years of experience, Bourk has worked with clients across many industries. According to him, while some are prepared to face cyber threats, others have more work to do.

“Certainly the type and amount of data that real estate organizations can be holding on to is significant. I think it puts them into a category of heightened concern,” said Bourk. “The bottom line is, some organizations are prepared, but I’d say more than most are probably not as prepared. I think organizations are realizing that they’ve really got to invest in their network protections”

Overall, in the world of cybersecurity, there is no such thing as perfect security. Security experts and malicious actors alike are constantly in a race to stay one step ahead of one another.

Real estate companies must take a proactive effort to protect themselves and their clients. Measures can include hiring or working with security professionals, training staff and developing company procedures, and investing in a cyber insurance policy.

The need for cyber security is increasingly important as many companies have moved to a much more remote style of working. In the transition, many systems may have been set up hastily and the cracks in security can leave organizations vulnerable.

In a world where technology touches every aspect of our daily lives, cyber threats are a new reality that is here to stay. Any business, especially those that work with sensitive data, should feel obligated to instate meaningful cybersecurity measures sooner rather than later for their own and their clients’ protection.

 

© 2021 Rep Magazine. All Rights Reserved.

Skyrocketing ownership costs point to coming rise in Lower Mainland rents

Peter Mitham
Western Investor

Residential, industrial prices have outstripped rents, meaning there’s lots of room for rate growth

 CIBC managing director Benjamin Tal told the Vancouver Real Estate Forum he expects strong growth in multifamily rents in the years ahead. / Dan Toulgoet

Rising land costs are driving up the price ownership in Lower Mainland real estate markets but rents have yet to follow suit.

The dynamic is setting tenants up for a shock in the coming years, not just in the residential market but also for industrial space.

According to CIBC managing director and deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal, the spread between home ownership costs and residential rents is at a record high following the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Home prices went up, rents didn’t,” he told the Vancouver Real Estate Forum on April 12.

For monthly rents to catch up to home ownership costs, Tal said rents would have to increase 53%.

“Rent inflation is in the cards over the next few years. That’s why I’m bullish on multi-residential, because clearly the direction is up,” he said. “We simply don’t have enough rental units and too much demand. In fact, we have more demand than we know.”

The country as a whole is under-counting rental demand by “hundreds of thousands,” said Tal, with the issue being particularly acute in Vancouver.

“Whatever the supply issue we have, it’s worse,” he said.

Taking a look at the Lower Mainland specifically, Central 1 Credit Union chief economist Bryan Yu reiterated the point.

With the benchmark housing price for the Lower Mainland at $1.4 million, Yu says affordability remains a concern. While he expects housing prices to correct in the second half of this year, it will be in a minor shift in the range of 5 to 10 per cent. By contrast, the benchmark price for the Lower Mainland has increased 40% over the past two years.

Since the land base remains constrained, he doesn’t expect any significant correction in long-term pricing. Moreover, immigration to the region is set to hit 60,000 in the coming years.

“We’re going to see more people piling back into the rental market,” he said, advising builders to look beyond short-term pricing fluctuations and keep building. “That’s what the market is going to require as you go forward in Metro Vancouver as we absorb substantial amounts of immigration to the market.”

Meanwhile, all those people need to be supplied with goods, both essentials and luxuries. This is putting pressure on industrial space, with vacancies at record lows and land prices in Richmond above $8.5 million an acre.

During a panel discussion on industrial real estate, Beedie industrial sales director Rowan Hicks said dramatic increases in strata prices – now cresting $750 a square foot in many areas – has made some purchasers think twice. But with lease rates also escalating rapidly, many smaller users are willing to become owners.

 “Strata pricing has really outpaced lease rate growth in the past few years,” he said. “That’s definitely impacting decision-making, but we’re still seeing owner-occupiers successfully looking at the long-term with the benefit of ownership being potential property value appreciation.”

Similar to the residential market, delivering more supply will require government to step up and show leadership.

“It’s not getting the attention it deserves,” said John Middleton, senior vice-president, leasing with Onni Group.

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Squamish council rejects bid to redesignate Cheema lands

Steven Chua
Western Investor

Property slated for residential development remains outside growth management boundary

 Cheema lands. Via District of Squamish report

For the third time in four years, District of Squamish council has turned down a proposal to include the Cheema lands within its growth management boundary. 

During its meeting on April 5, elected officials voted 4-3 to deny first reading of the proposal, which would have been the first step toward designating the lands for residential development.

Mayor Karen Elliott and councillors Doug Race, Jenna Stoner and Chris Pettingill voted to defeat first reading. 

Councillors John French, Eric Andersen and Armand Hurford voted in favour of granting first reading.

The Cheema lands, officially known as District lots 509 and 510, have been a point of contention within the municipality.

Developer Bob Cheema has proposed turning much of the area into a bustling residential community, but the land lies outside the district’s growth management boundary as outlined in the Official Community Plan (OCP).

The boundary serves as a dividing line between where developers can or can’t build. The idea is to keep growth within the boundary until certain conditions in the community are met.

Staff have reasoned that this will keep uncontrolled sprawl in check. The boundary, it is argued, prevents the need to encroach on greenspace, and maximizes the use of already-disturbed land and currently existing infrastructure.

District lots 509 and 510 are currently designated for future residential, but Cheema proposed designating the properties as an area suitable for development in the near term. 

The area has been considered for inclusion in the growth management boundary on two previous occasions since 2018.

The first time, it was deemed that the 22,500 population threshold for redesignating the lands had not been met.

The second time, the population threshold had been met but council decided that meeting the population threshold was not the sole criterion for granting the developer’s proposal.

The meeting on Tuesday marked the third time the Cheema residential project was considered and rejected by elected officials.

Aran Cheema issued a written statement on behalf of the Cheema family after council’s vote. 

“Even though the population has now surpassed the major goal post of 22,500, Mayor Karen Elliott, councillors Jenna Stoner, Chris Pettingill and Doug Race voted to reject our application on the basis that one minor policy is incomplete. Even if this minor policy is completed, the opposing councillors indicated that we should wait another decade,” reads the statement sent to The Squamish Chief.

The initial results of the 2021 Statistics Canada census show that Squamish’s population is 23,819.

The statement also noted that the Cheema family had been willing to pay for steep slope policy studies for the project, which could’ve saved taxpayers thousands.

District staff said a steep slope policy is one of the considerations for a development like the Cheema lands, but even with funding from the developer, there isn’t enough municipal staff to take on the workload for developing those regulations promptly.

However, the Cheemas appeared to take issue with the municipality’s views.

“We know the real reason why games are getting played,” their statement said. “Simply put, the District wants to maintain their leverage to hold us at ransom.”

The Cheema statement said the goalposts had been moved with the population threshold, and “now the goalposts are moving with completing this one minor policy.”  

Before the vote, district staff recommended that elected officials defeat first reading for the proposal to include the Cheema lands within the growth management boundary.

“[The recommendation] is that we do not proceed with an OCP amendment at this time. There’s still room in the growth management boundary to accommodate growth. And we still need to finish the list of policies that we’re working on,” said Jonas Velaniskis, director of planning.

Velaniskis highlighted that there were several municipal policies that would ideally be addressed before expanding the growth management boundary.

“Overall, while there is some compliance with the policies,” said Velaniskis. “The application is not able to address all of them at this time.”

Before considering a growth management boundary expansion, Section 9.2(g) of the OCP states there must be consideration of negative environmental, social or economic impacts, he said.

Secondly, he said, Section 9.2(h) states a suite of precursor policies must be addressed.

Some of those precursor policies have been taken care of, Velaniskis said; however, others, such as a brand asset inventory — accounting for what will happen to mountain bike trails in this case — and the steep slopes development permit area have yet to be addressed.

Speaking in favour of the development, Coun. Andersen said that there were a number of developments underway in town that did not fully address the issues Velanisikis had mentioned.

Andersen said there were already neighbourhoods built or in the process of being built that have concerns regarding 9.2(g).

“If we were to take those neighbourhoods and developments that are underway or in play, and put together a ledger and discuss 9.2, we have Oceanfront, Waterfront Landing, Scott Crescent, downtown, Ross Road, Loggers Lane East, Centennial Way, and the reason why I’m listing all of them is that… all of them have some issues with respect to 9.2,” he said.

“It is loss of employment lands on a large scale. We’ve lost tourist, commercial and industrial lands. We have parking and transportation issues that come up with some of these. We have habitat loss…We did not get affordable housing at all with one of these large-scale developments. And so, I am looking at that ledger. If we were to put that together, I think that we are treating lot[s] 509 and 510 unfairly. I’m not convinced that this is an inappropriate place for residential development.”

Coun. French was also supportive of the Cheema proposal.

“This is a property that’s above the floodplain, a property that has been logged a few times,” said French. “A property that offers an opportunity to build another needed roadway linking the Garibaldi Highlands to the Garibaldi Estates. And moving it inside the growth management boundary will allow us to start planning for smart construction once we have inevitably significantly filled in the developable land inside our current growth management boundary.”

He added that staff noted it would take about eight years between the property being included within the boundary to the first housing unit being built.

French called that an optimistic prediction and said he believed this would take about 10 years or more.

“And this means we’d be a decade away from having another large school property ready for development, more than a decade away from a connector road that we need now, and more than a decade away from having dedicated parking and facilities for the thousands of mountain bike riders, who flock to the end of Perth Drive every year,” he said.

Coun. Hurford said that he would support first reading, with the hopes that it would elicit more information.

He said his intent is to spark further engagement from both the public and the developer.

“I’m looking to trigger a comprehensive public engagement process,” said Hurford. “The optimist in me says that that’ll give the developer an opportunity to wow us with exceeding all of our important policies and bringing forward a world-class development. It could also be that that’s not the case. Once this comprehensive public engagement process is underway, that can show the benefits and potential consequences of the proposed change.”

The remaining councillors, on the other hand, opposed granting first reading.

Coun. Stoner called some of her colleagues’ comments surprising.

“I’m a little bit concerned that some of my colleagues seem to have made up their mind [that] this land should already be within the growth management boundary. We’re at first reading of whether that should happen or not, so I was just a little bit surprised by some of my colleagues’ comments,” said Stoner. 

“I personally don’t know whether this land should be in or outside of the growth management boundary. And there are lots of things that need to be weighed in order to make that decision and lots of information and research that needs to be completed in order to inform that decision and inform the discussion that our community should have and when we’re making that important decision. But I went back and re-listened to the presentation that we got on this topic a year ago in March 2021. And I don’t think that much has changed between now and then with regards to where we’re at with the growth management boundary and the policies in the OCP.”

Coun. Race noted that many members in the community are concerned with the rate of growth in town.

He noted the extensive size of the land and wondered whether the community needed such a big addition at this stage.

“The fundamental issue is whether we need to grow with this property,” said Race. “This is a huge property; it’s not a small add-on here, add-on there. It is a huge property, and it brings huge growth issues with it. And so I’m not prepared to consider amending the growth management boundary until we are in a position where we actually need to grow.”

The Cheema lands total 422 acres. 

From the perspective of Coun. Pettingill, it was too soon to consider the matter.

“When I look at what we have ahead of us in terms of work and all the timelines together, and what is available within the growth management boundary, and what the OCP says about how we will develop, I don’t think we’re there yet in doing this,” Pettingill said.

Mayor Elliott, who also opposed first reading, said there was no rush to include the land in the boundary.

There are other things that need to be taken care of beforehand, she said.

She said there needs to be time for the affordable housing policy to mature; she called for the community to be included in the province’s empty homes and speculation tax zone; and she also wanted to see more of the “missing middle” housing the District has been working on.

The housing society also needs more time to help people achieve affordable homeownership, Elliott added.

There are also climate and environmental issues to consider, she said.

“It’s simply not just the OCP policies that we want to make sure we understand. But also our climate policies and how they’re shaping up,” said Elliott.

“You know, I heard one of my colleagues say, we need parking for the thousands of people that are mountain biking,” she said. “No — we actually need to rethink how people arrive in our community, how they participate in the activities here in order to mitigate climate change.”

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Dan Fumano: Will ‘downtown’ come to Broadway?

Dan Fumano
The Vancouver Sun

Analysis: Some Fairview residents argue 39-storey tower belongs downtown, not in their neighbourhood across the bridge. But in city hall’s view, “downtown” will be coming to them.

 This week, city council will consider local developer PCI Group’s pitch for a 39-storey mixed-use project above the South Granville subway station now under construction, proposing to stack several different elements of a neighbourhood in a single tall building: transit, retail, a grocery store, offices, and both market and below-market rental homes. Photo by Francis Georgian /PNG

A proposal to build Broadway’s tallest tower, set for debate this week at city hall, raises a tricky question for Vancouver’s future: what, and where, is “downtown?”

 

This week, city council will consider local developer PCI Group’s pitch for a 39-storey mixed-use project above the South Granville subway station now under construction, proposing to stack several different elements of a neighbourhood in a single tall building: transit, retail, a grocery store, offices, and both market and below-market rental homes.

The project has followed a somewhat unusual process to get to this point and is already generating strong feelings of both support and opposition, judging by the written correspondence sent to city hall so far.

“I live a very short walk away and this area is in DIRE need of developments like this,” begins one letter, while another calls the proposal “a disgrace to our city planning.”

 

“Keep your proposed 39 storey plans for the downtown area as it is not welcome in our south Granville neighbourhood,” one letter states. Another says: “We live in this neighbourhood because downtown is filled with these kind of towers.”

Sean Nardi, a member of the Fairview South Granville Action Committee, said something similar to Postmedia reporter John Mackie for a recent story. When Nardi and his neighbours learned a few years ago of a proposed 28-storey apartment building on West Broadway, two blocks east of Granville, he recalled: “All of a sudden everybody sat up and said, ‘Hold the phones here, we didn’t move to the neighbourhood to live downtown.’”

Nardi’s sentiment is likely shared by many in Fairview and elsewhere along the Broadway corridor, folks who strongly believe tall buildings belong downtown, not in their neighbourhoods two kilometres south across the bridge. If they wanted to live downtown, the argument goes, they would have moved downtown.

 

For those Vancouverites, it may come as unwelcome news that in the view of city hall’s planning department, downtown is coming to them.

 

Draft “Land Use Concept Map” for the Broadway Plan in Vancouver, showing the densities for the neighbourhoods in the plan.

The Broadway plan‘s most recent draft calls this corridor, along the subway route and north of 16th Avenue, “Vancouver’s second downtown.” The citywide plan draft released last week goes a step further, describing central Broadway not as a “second downtown,” but as part of a single “Metro Core,” a contiguous area encompassing both the downtown  peninsula and the Broadway plan area together envisioned as the city and Metro region’s “principle centre of business, employment, cultural and entertainment activity.”

City planners, politicians, and the Broadway plan’s critics and supporters alike all agree: one crucial consideration is minimizing the displacement of existing renters in that area, especially those long-term tenants paying well below market rent.

 

Mayor Kennedy Stewart has spoken positively of the Broadway plan, but recently told Postmedia his top priority was ensuring tenant protections were strong enough that when redevelopment and densification occurs, no existing tenants will be priced out of the area.

It remains to be seen if the plan’s policies will be sufficient to achieve that goal, or if they might change before the final version is approved.

PCI president Tim Grant says projects like his company’s 39-storey proposal, which would create 223 rental homes, seem to align with the kind of development city hall says it wants: mixed-use, transit-oriented development with an affordable housing component. Twenty per cent of the residential square footage would be permanently secured for below-market units for moderate-income households, defined as household incomes between $30,000 and $80,000. 

 

 

Provincial leaders, especially housing minister David Eby, also say they want significant commercial and residential density around transit stations, to maximize value for multi-billion dollar infrastructure investments like the Broadway subway, and reduce the need for people to rely on private cars for their daily needs and commutes.

Grant acknowledged to Postmedia that the “real concern around displacement of existing renters,” and said that’s one benefit of this project: it replaces what was previously an office building with more office space, and hundreds of new rental homes, without displacing any renters, even temporarily.

The 28-storey tower, now under construction on the former site of a Denny’s and a parking lot, is another example of adding rental homes without displacing any existing residents.

But while such projects add new rental homes, including dozens of below-market units, without displacing anyone, some residents oppose them for being too big, too tall, too “downtown.” Others argue this is exactly the appropriate and responsible kind of land use for a site near an urban subway station in the middle of the hub of a growing Metro region of 2.4 million people.

Uptown won’t transform into downtown overnight, but many current and future residents of the Broadway corridor will welcome the idea of a more urban future, with more people, jobs, variety, nightlife, and, indeed, tall buildings. Others clearly feel that type of thing belongs across False Creek, somewhere like the West End. But of course, the West End didn’t always look as it does today: a century ago, it was made up of wooden Victorian houses big and small, until city hall decided to change it, eventually allowing the high-rises that made it one of Canada’s densest — and most beloved — neighbourhoods.

“How can you lose? The lights are much brighter there,” Petula Clark sang in one of the most popular songs from 1965. “Things will be great when you’re downtown. No finer place, for sure.”

Clearly, not everyone agrees.

But when Vancouver city council considers PCI’s 39-storey proposal, they won’t only be weighing whether every resident in walking distance of Broadway and Granville supports it. The question is whether it’s good for Vancouver.

And very soon after the Granville decision, the same question will be on council’s minds at an even larger scale: the Broadway and citywide plans go to council for decisions in May and June, respectively. Soon after that, those plans’ visions for Vancouver’s future will be debated ahead of October’s election. Voters will be asked to choose which future they want.

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