Vancouver population decreases for first time in 45 years

Ryan Garner
Livabl

 Reflecting similar situations in Toronto and Montreal, Vancouver saw its population drop last year as people increasingly left the city for surrounding areas in search of affordable housing.

According to estimates by Statistics Canada, after rising from 664,156 to 700,015 between 2016 and 2020, Vancouver’s population decreased for the first time in 45 years during 2021. It dipped 6,780 for a total of 693,325.

Nearly two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, the population shifts reflect changing priorities as Canadians turn away from major cities, seeking more space to work from home or start a family.

Increased demand for single-family homes and reduced affordability has sent buyers searching for properties in the Fraser Valley. This is away from Vancouver’s higher prices and limited supply.

Surrey led British Columbia in population growth last year. It added 13,004 new residents for a total population to 614,600. Langley welcomed 4,702 newcomers to reach 166,400.

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Housing affordability played a key role in the population shift. The benchmark price for a single-family detached home in the Fraser Valley reached $1,500,000 by the end of 2021. That’s an increase of  39 per cent year-over-year. It is still well below Vancouver’s mark of $1,910,200.

Similarly, Fraser Valley townhouses and apartments reported benchmarks of $765,800 and $549,200. That’s significantly lower than $1,004,900 and $761,800 in Vancouver.

Home construction also reflects a push east across the Lower Mainland. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports that 5,819 units began construction in Surrey during 2021, outpacing Vancouver (5,464) by six per cent.

Low housing inventory

However, the entire region continues to experience record low inventory. There’s an imbalance of supply and demand. New construction projects have experienced delays due to supply chain issues, labour shortages and red tape.

“Supply of housing in Metro Vancouver has fallen to record low levels and, due primarily to local governments, construction of new homes is not keeping pace with the current population,” said Kevin Skipworth, partner and chief economist at Dexter Realty.

Vancouver’s housing starts mix included 567 single-family houses, 370 townhouses, 103 rowhouses, and 4,410 apartments. Surrey reported 800 single-family houses, 22 townhouses, 1,097 rowhouses, and 3,900 apartments.

It remains to be seen if Vancouver’s population will decrease in 2022. The lack of housing supply is expected to keep upward pressure on prices. This will reduce  affordability and force first-time buyers to look elsewhere if they hope to enter the market.

“A fundamental flaw in the Metro Vancouver and many other real estate markets that we are experiencing right now is a significant lack of homes,” Skipworth said. “Demand side measures clearly are not the long-term answer. At some point there needs to be real effort to increase supply and allow it to be increased in a meaningful way.”

 

© 2020 BuzzBuzzHome Corp.

Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market continued its recovery in the third quarter of 2021

REBGV Staff
REBGV

The increased activity seen in the Lower Mainland’s commercial real estate market in the first half of 2021 carried into the third quarter (Q3) of the year across all categories.

There were 640 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, a 64.1 per cent increase from the 390 sales in Q3 2020, according to data from Commercial Edge, a commercial real estate system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland was $3.250 billion in Q3 2021, a 30.7 per cent increase from $2.487 billion in Q3 2020.

“Commercial real estate activity recovered steadily in the first three quarters of 2021 against 2020 levels as consumer and business confidence returned from the initial uncertainty that the COVID-19 pandemic caused,” Keith Stewart, REBGV economist said. “In particular, the strength of land acquisition activity points to new development interest across the region.”

Q3 2021 activity by category

Land: There were 228 commercial land sales in Q3 2021, which is a 137.5 per cent increase from 96 land sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of land sales was $1.839 billion in Q3 2021, a 15.5 per cent increase from $1.592 billion in Q3 2020.

Office and Retail: There were 235 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, which is up 42.4 per cent from 165 sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $489 million in Q3 2021, a 41.7 per cent increase from $345 million in Q3 2020.

Industrial: There were 153 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, which is a 43 per cent increase from 107 sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of industrial sales was $544 million in Q3 2021, a 116.7 per cent increase from $251 million in Q3 2020.

Multi-Family: There were 24 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, which is up 9.1 per cent from 22 sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $378 million in Q3 2021, a 26.4 per cent increase from $299 million in Q3 2020.

Download the Q3 2021 Commercial Stats Package

Craig Munn

Director, Communication

Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

604-730-3146

[email protected]

© 2022 REBGV

 

British Columbia housing market what cooling off legislation could mean

Fergal McAlinden
other

 

The provincial government has proposed new measures aimed at protecting consumers’ rights in the buying process

 As Canada’s housing and mortgage markets heated up to unprecedented levels throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most notable side effects was the growing prevalence of condition-free offers.

Feverish competition and madcap bidding wars have led many would-be buyers to submit offers without having secured financing, a trend that shows no sign of slowing down with demand set to remain fierce throughout the country for the year ahead.

In British Columbia – one of the country’s two busiest markets, alongside Ontario – the provincial government has recently taken steps to address the frenzied housing situation, announcing its intention to introduce legislation this year that would allow buyers to back out of a sale during a “cooling-off” period.

“People looking to buy a home need to know they are protected as they make one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives,” said the province’s finance minister, Selina Robinson, in announcing the proposal.

“Especially in periods of heightened activity in the housing market, it’s crucial that we have effective measures in place so that people have the peace of mind that they’ve made the right choices.”

With the legislation unlikely to arrive until this spring at the earliest, the precise steps it will take to change the current system are still unclear.

Read next: The problem with subject-free offers

However, while the move is broadly intended to provide greater protection for consumers in the purchasing process, some have suggested it has the potential to inadvertently stoke the red-hot BC housing market even further.

Jason Henneberry (pictured top), president of financing firm Fundible, told Canadian Mortgage Professional that he had held discussions with many realtors who felt it could complicate the buying stage and make it more difficult to determine the merits of different offers – particularly if buyers no longer feel it’s necessary to show that they have prearranged finance.

“What a lot of realtors think is… if you can walk away from a purchase for any reason, then you no longer really need to put conditions in there. And so, everybody has the right to walk away,” he said.

“Then what happens is, it becomes more challenging for the listing realtor to make sense of the quality of the offer that they’re receiving.”

If buyers are no longer able to differentiate their offer from the others by having to show financing conditions, Henneberry said, that could lead to bidders either increasing the purchase price of the offer or increasing the size of their down payment – with already sky-high house prices set to climb even further as a result.

Fundible was launched in Alberta and Ontario at the end of November to address some of the current issues in the buying process, offering guaranteed financing so that would-be buyers can write a purchase offer without having a prior financing condition in place.

Read next: Intensified demand propelling Vancouver housing sector

That reflects the company’s belief that lenders have been slow to react and adjust to the fact that condition-free offers have become increasingly commonplace among buyers in the Canadian housing market.

“The lending community hasn’t caught up to buyer behaviour because the process is backwards, and just hasn’t evolved yet,” Henneberry explained.

 “What Fundible does is it takes the underwriting of a buyer and a property and puts its ahead of the purchase contract, whereas traditionally lenders want to see a firm purchase agreement before they spend money, time and resources to underwrite.”

The company enables its realtor partners and their clients to stipulate in the purchase offer that it’s been certified by Fundible, Henneberry said, making it clear that the funding has already been guaranteed.

That means that even in a case where buyers aren’t required to disclose whether they have conditions of financing on an offer, the presence of Fundible certification can help differentiate a particular offer from another.

The company expects its expansion in 2022 to continue, although it’s holding fire on making its first foray into the BC market as it waits to see what form the provincial government’s cooling-off legislation will take.

“We’re just holding back on BC until we fully understand exactly what that new policy and rescission-period legislation looks like,” Henneberry said. “We want to make sure that when we come to market in BC, we’ve kind of tailored the product so that it works as well as possible with that legislation.”

 

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Reliance Properties joins in billion-dollar Colwood build

WI Staff with Times Colonist
Western Investor

Vancouver developer joint ventures with Seacliff Properties on 130-acre waterfront community with 2,850 homes and a commercial core

Vancouver developer joint ventures with Seacliff Properties on 130-acre waterfront community with 2,850 homes and a commercial core

Vancouver’s Reliance Properties has inked a 50-50 joint-venture agreement with Seacliff Properties for the $1.2 billion build out of a massive mixed-use master planned waterfront development in Colwood, B.C., a West Shore community a 15-minute drive from Victoria.

“We are thrilled to partner with Seacliff to develop Royal Beach, which will be our first project on Vancouver Island that is outside of Downtown Victoria,” said Jon Stovell, president and CEO of Reliance Properties, which is developing in both Victoria and Vancouver, including the Burrard Place tower project, a joint venture with the Jim Pattison Group.

 “This is our company’s first joint venture,” said Georgia Desjardins, director of development of Seacliff Properties during a press conference at the site on January 24. “Royal Beach presents a unique opportunity to develop the last significant waterfront lands in Colwood, creating a new local, regional, and national destination.”

Colwood’s development deal with Seacliff Properties to build 2,850 homes at Royal Beach — a plan that includes 50 acres of parks and 1.4 kilometres of ocean shoreline — is a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for any city,” said Colwood Mayor Rob Martin.

“We’re not building piecemeal but with a master plan and a vision of how this community will operate over the next 100 years,” Martin said in an earlier interview with the Times Colonist.

For more than 100 years, the site was a rock and gravel mine, one of the region’s largest employers. It ceased operations in 2008. Seacliff bought the site in 2017, and after years of planning and public consultation, the City of Colwood adopted a new Sub-Area Plan and zoning bylaw for Royal Beach last year.

“Other seaside communities in B.C., like Coal Harbour and Olympic Village, were industrial sites that became coveted, world-class communities in which to live, work, play and visit,” said Desjardins. “Royal Beach will be Vancouver Island’s most distinct waterfront community.”

 The first phase of construction will start this  spring with the construction of a new intersection at the site’s entrance at Metchosin and Latoria roads.

 A village plaza will be built at the heart of the waterfront area as part of the first phase. It will provide space for restaurants, seating, public art and cultural activities, with connections to a waterfront park and beach activities.

The Creekside Trail will provide public access from Metchosin Road to the plaza and shoreline.

“The biggest part of [Royal Beach] is the park system,” said Martin. “It’s 50 acres and the entire waterfront is public realm, for the people to enjoy.”

Royal Beach is adjacent to ongoing Royal Bay development by GableCraft Homes, which covers the largest part of the former quarry. GableCraft is building and selling homes at a rate of about 10 per month.

Royal Bay contains approximately 300,000 square feet of commercial space that will include a 10,000-square-foot Quality Foods store as well as a liquor store and bank.

The province has invested $150 million to build a 200,000-square-foot facility for the Royal B.C. Museum’s archives and collections at the site.

Another 90 acres in the former gravel pit will contain industrial buildings. An 80,000-square-foot warehouse for Seaspan and Victoria Shipyards is going up there, and Martin said announcements on new tenants are expected.

The Capital Regional District’s growth strategy identifies Colwood as a centre for urban growth and densification. Its population is currently projected to increase by approximately 30 per cent by 2038 as one of the fastest-growing regions on Vancouver Island.

© 2022 Western Investor

Commercial real estate sales click over $1 billon a month in Lower Mainland

Frank O’Brien
Western Investor

Third-quarter 2021 transactions were up 64 per cent from a year earlier with land sales leading the curve

 Sold September 20 2021 as a 15,000-square-foot land development deal, 1290 Hornby Street, Vancouver, was bought by Wall Financial for $45 million. Colliers Canada.

Third-quarter 2021 transactions were up 64 per cent from a year earlier with land sales leading the curve

Led by land sales, commercial real estate transactions during a three-month period in 2021 hit $3.25 billion as third-quarter (Q3) sales surged 64.1 per cent from the same period a year earlier, according to the Commercial Edge report from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

The $1.89 billion in land purchases dominated the action, and land sales continued to roar into the fourth quarter.

In November and December, two of the biggest land deals of 2021 closed in Metro Vancouver: the more-than- $300 million purchase of  27  acres near the Olympic Oval in Richmond, and a $155 million deal for a 14 acres along the Lougheed Highway in Burnaby.

“The strength of land acquisition activity points to new development interest across the region,” said Keith Stewart, REBGV economist..

“Commercial real estate activity recovered steadily in the first three quarters of 2021 against 2020 levels as consumer and business confidence returned from the initial uncertainty that the COVID-19 pandemic caused,” he added.

There were 640 commercial real estate sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, up from the 390 sales in Q3 2020, according to data from Commercial Edge. The total dollar value of commercial real estate sales in Q3 2021 increased 30.7 per cent from $2.487 billion in Q3 2020.

Commercial Edge data includes all commercial real estate transactions in the Lower Mainland of B.C. that have been registered with the Land Title and Survey Authority of British Columbia. It does not include share-sale transactions as they are not registered with the Land Title and Survey Authority.

Q3 2021 commercial real estate activity by category:

Land: There were 228 commercial land sales in Q3 2021, which is a 137.5 per cent increase from 96 land sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of land sales was $1.839 billion in Q3 2021, a 15.5 per cent increase from $1.592 billion in Q3 2020.

Office and retail: There were 235 office and retail sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, which is up 42.4 per cent from 165 sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of office and retail sales was $489 million in Q3 2021, a 41.7 per cent increase from $345 million in Q3 2020.

Industrial: There were 153 industrial land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, which is a 43 per cent increase from 107 sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of industrial sales was $544 million in Q3 2021, a 116.7 per cent increase from $251 million in Q3 2020.

Multi-family: There were 24 multi-family land sales in the Lower Mainland in Q3 2021, which is up 9.1 per cent from 22 sales in Q3 2020. The dollar value of multi-family sales was $378 million in Q3 2021, a 26.4 per cent increase from $299 million in Q3 2020.

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Deb-tstrapped Canadians brace for a risky rate-hiking cycle

Theophilos Argitis
Bloomberg

 The era of historically low interest rates, which inflated Canadians’ wealth and facilitated their spending, is coming to an end.

As early as next week, the Bank of Canada will start a campaign of tighter monetary policy that will test the country’s debt-laden consumers and reveal whether its robust economic recovery has staying power.

The country has one of the highest total debt burdens in the developed world, ranking slightly behind France and well ahead of the U.S. Even so, markets are betting that the Bank of Canada will be the most aggressive Group of Seven central bank in lifting rates.

Economists and traders see a string of hikes, likely starting at the Jan. 26 decision, until the policy rate is back at the pre-pandemic level of 1.75 per cent in about a year. The Bank of Nova Scotia is forecasting it will climb as high as 2 per cent.

The best case is that higher rates don’t produce a sharp economic slowdown but are still potent enough to cool inflation significantly. Consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 30 years last month.

But the potential for policy error has escalated along with inflation.

Central bank officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem will worry that if they move too quickly, they will destabilize an economy that has one of the most expensive real-estate markets in the world. But they also know that if they balk, they could lose control of consumer prices and squander credibility that’s taken three decades to build.

It’s nearly as tricky for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. 

It’s getting difficult for him to justify budget deficits. But pressure to help Canadians with the rising cost of living could escalate demands for continued government help. Fiscal expansionism has been at the center of the prime minister’s agenda for six years and was a big part of his re-election campaign in 2021.

“We are entering possibly the riskiest economic policy landscape we’ve seen in decades,” Robert Asselin, a former Trudeau adviser who is now vice-president at the Business Council of Canada, said by phone. 

 

Chrystia Freeland and Tiff Macklem arrive at an Ottawa news conference on Dec. 13, 2021.

In one way, the normalization of rates from record lows is a success story. It reflects an economy that’s recouped its pandemic losses, is approaching full employment and running up against capacity. 

The nation created 886,000 new jobs in 2021, a record year. After losing 3 million jobs at the start of the pandemic, employment is now 240,500 above where it was in February 2020. In the U.S., employment is still almost 3 million below that mark. 

Commodities have also been doing well, helping to fuel national income. Yet, analysts also worry about the soundness of the recovery, which has relied on a surge in housing and one of the largest fiscal expansions (and increases in central bank balance sheets) anywhere. 

Home prices have risen 41 per cent since policy makers slashed interest rates to the emergency lows in March 2020. Total private and public debt outside of the financial sector, meanwhile, has risen by more than $1 trillion (US$802 billion) to $8.1 trillion through June last year.

 

That represents about 345 per cent of gross domestic  product, the sixth highest among the more than 40 rich economies tracked by the Bank for International Settlements. How the economy will react to higher borrowing costs remains unknown.

“I don’t think you want to turn the screws on housing too much, too quickly,” Benjamin Reitzes, macro strategist at Bank of Montreal, said by phone. “There’s some risk there and you want to make sure that market stays stable.”

Others believe the central bank is already behind the curve with limited options. Amid signs price pressures have broadened, a gradual approach may fail to slow inflation — forcing even more aggressive tightening down the line.

“We can’t guarantee a soft landing, but decisions made by the Bank of Canada very soon will go a long way toward determining whether we stand a chance,” Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank, said Thursday in a report to investors. “Canada is indeed at a fork in the road.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“We expect the BoC will not touch its rate lever at the January meeting, but risks tilt to an earlier move than our current April baseline.”

–Andrew Husby, economist

Trudeau is facing a similar dilemma. 

Throughout the pandemic, he and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland have sought to keep the economy flush with cash, while proposing an expansive social policy and climate-change agenda. 

At a news conference Wednesday, Trudeau gave little indication he plans to pare back spending. According to the parliamentary budget watchdog, the government is facing a $160 billion shortfall in the fiscal year that ends March 31 and there are nearly $50 billion worth of election promises that have yet to budgeted. 

“We’re going to continue to work to bring down costs for families on housing, childcare, in a range of things,” the prime minister told reporters, saying his government would “have Canadians’ backs as we promised in the very beginning of the pandemic.”

The risk is that without trimming his fiscal plans, Trudeau will fuel inflation that could drive the Bank of Canada to raise borrowing costs by even more. That would leave the nation’s indebted households to pay the biggest price for the prime minister’s ambitions.

To some, that’s a risky bet.

“The challenge that lies ahead is to not let policy errors harm the impressive recovery we have seen over the last few months,” Asselin said.

 

© 2022 BellMedia. All Rights Reserved

Chilliwack 0.42-acre land assembly sells for $1.7 million

Frontline Real Estate Services
Western Investor

Two lots assembled into a small condominium development site near an elementary school and close to downtown Chilliwack, B.C.

Property type: Condo development land

Location: 46801 and 46811 Yale Road, Chilliwack, B.C.

Land size: 18,.470 square feet

Land size in acres: 0.42 acres

Pending application: 26 condominium units/four-storey building

Sale price: $1.7 million

Brokerage: Frontline Real Estate Services, Surrey, B.C.

Brokers: Mike Harrison, Megan Johal, Adam Lawrence, and Justin Mitchell

 

© 2022 Western Investor

Chilliwack 0.42-acre land assembly sells for $1.7 million

Frontline Real Estate Services
Western Investor

Two lots assembled into a small condominium development site near an elementary school and close to downtown Chilliwack, B.C.

Property type: Condo development land

Location: 46801 and 46811 Yale Road, Chilliwack, B.C.

Land size: 18,.470 square feet

Land size in acres: 0.42 acres

Pending application: 26 condominium units/four-storey building

Sale price: $1.7 million

Brokerage: Frontline Real Estate Services, Surrey, B.C.

Brokers: Mike Harrison, Megan Johal, Adam Lawrence and Justin Mitchell

© 2022 Western Investor

Langley 2.5-acre townhouse site sells for $8.56 million

Frontline Real Estate Services
Western Investor

The flat lot currently has a single detached house but is designated for townhouse development at eight to 22 units per acre in Willoughby area of North Langley.

 

Property type: Development land

Location: 7680 202A Street, Langley, B.C.

Size of land in acres: 2.5 acres

Designation: Townhouse development B (8-22 UPA)

Sale price: $8.56 million

Brokerage: Frontline Real Estate Services, Surrey, B.C.

Brokers: Mike Harrison, Megan Johal, Adam Lawrence and Justin Mitchell

 

© 2022 Western Investor

DLC earns new TSX listing

Fergal McAlinden
other

The mortgage giant’s CEO described the news as a “significant milestone” for the company

 Dominion Lending Centres Inc. has received conditional approval to list its class ‘A’ common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), a development that it said would grow the company’s corporate profile and provide access to a wider pool of investors.

The approval will see DLC’s shares graduate from the TSX Venture Exchange and is subject to the company meeting certain customary conditions required by the TSX.

“Graduating to the TSX is a significant milestone for DLC,” the company’s chairman and chief executive officer Gary Mauris said in reaction to the news. “The new TSX listing should enhance our corporate profile and enable DLC to access a larger group of potential investors.”

Read next: DLC announces final results of its substantial issuer bid

The TSX is the 11th-largest exchange in the world and the third largest in North America based on market capitalization. Its total financings number $36.2 billion, with an average market capitalization of $2 billion and over 1,600 companies listed on the exchange.

The DLC Group, which operates through Dominion Lending Centres and subsidiaries MCC Mortgage Centre Canada Inc., MA Mortgage Architects Inc. and Newton Connectivity Systems Inc., was founded in 2006 by Mauris and Chris Kayat.

It numbers over 7,000 mortgage professionals across the country, with the company having recorded more than $75 billion in mortgage originations in the 12 months ending September 2021.

 

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